Prognosis for House of Representatives Freshmen 1996

The Republican Party won control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 1994 for the first time since 1952. The Democratic Party needs a net gain of 19 seats to retake control.

There are 91 House of Representatives Freshmen, elected in the Republican victory in 1994, only 3 of whom are not seeking re-election this year. 74 of the freshmen are Republicans, 17 are Democrats. All the freshmen are listed here, although not all are vulnerable. The predictions were made in October 1996.

House of Representatives – Races Worth Watching
District Incumbent Comment Winner
Arizona
1st
Matt Salmon (R) Freshman. Salmon is guaranteed a second term because the Democrats have been unable to find a candidate Salmon
4th
John Shadegg (R) Freshman. A Republican district. The Democrat is a supporter of Lyndon LaRouche. Shadegg
6th
J. D. Hayworth (R) Freshman. Democrat candidate Steve Owens has a chance in this close race. Hayworth
California
1st
Frank Riggs (R) Freshman. Riggs lost this seat in 1992, but regained it in 1994. The Democrat candidate, Michela Alioto, used to work for Al Gore. One to watch. Riggs
15th
Tom Campbell (R) Freshman. The 15th has voted Democratic before, but Campbell is expeced to win against Dick Lane (R). Campbell
16th
Zoe Lofgren (D) Freshman. A traditional Democratic area that Lofgren should hold easily. The GOP candidate is Chuck Wojslaw. Lofgren
19th
George Radanovich (R) Freshman. Expected to defeat Democrat Paul Barile. Radanovich has been a staunch supporter of the Contract With America. Radanovich
22nd
Andrea Seastrand (R) Freshman. This is one of the toughest and closes races this year. Seastrand faces Walter Capps (D) in a rematch of 1994. Capps
37th
Juanita McDonald (D) Freshman. McDonald has only been a member since April, replacing Walter Tucker III, who resigned after being convicted of taking bribes. Republican opponent, Michael Voetee, is given no chance in this Democratic seat. McDonald
44th
Sonny Bono (R) Freshman. Bono has been a strong supporter of the Contract With America. Democrat Anita Rufus faces a difficult battle to win here. Bono
49th
Brian Bilbray (R) Freshman. One to watch, a seat that swings with the tide. Bilbray faces Peter Navarro (D). Bilbray
Florida
1st
Joe Scarborough (R) Freshman. A traditionally conservative district only ever held by conservative Democrats. Scarborough should hang on. Scarborough
15th
David Weldon (R) Freshman. One to watch. Democrat John Byron is attempting to retake this seat, won narrowly by Weldon in 1994. Weldon
16th
Mark Foley (R) Freshman. Foley is safe in this traditional Republican seat. Foley
Georgia
7th
Bob Barr (R) Freshman. Barr won 52-48 in 1994. Democrat Louie Watts, a state representative, will benefit from redistricting. One to watch. Barr
8th
Saxby Chambliss (R) Freshman. Chambliss is expected to win this year against Jim Wiggins (D) and be able to consolidate himself in a fairly safe district. Chambliss
10th
Charlie Norwood (R) Freshman. Norwood won this conservative Democratic seat in 1994 as part of the southern shift to the Republicans and is expected to hang on. Norwood
Idaho
1st
Helen Chenoweth (R) Freshman. The Democratic challenger, Daniel Williams, is hoping to regain this seat against an anti-gay, pro-mining conservative. The 1st is a more moderate district than the 2nd. Chenoweth
Illinois
2nd
Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) Freshman. Jackson replaced Mel Reynolds, who resigned in 1994 after being convicted of sex charges. This is a super safe Democratic seat. Jackson
5th
Michael Flanagan (R) Freshman. This was Dan Rostenkowski’s seat until Flanagan beat him in 1994. Democrat Rod Blagojevich is favoured to win. Blagojevich
11th
Jerry Weller (R) Freshman. A classic swing seat in both presidential and congressional elections. Weller won comfortably by 22 points in 1994 and should help him hold off Democrat Clem Balanoff. Weller
18th
Ray LaHood (R) Freshman. This district produced Republicans Everett Dirksen and Bob Michel and will stay with LaHood, one of the few Republicans who did not sign the Contract With America. The Democrat candidate is Mike Curran. LaHood
Indiana
2nd
David McIntosh (R) Freshman. McIntosh won this traditional Democratic seat in 1994 and Marc Carmichael has a hard job to retake it. McIntosh was rewarded with a Committee chair in the 104th. McIntosh
4th
Mark Souder (R) Freshman. This is Dan Quayle’s old seat, although it was held for 3 terms by the Democrats. Souder upset Gingrich by opposing the Balanced Budget Amendment. The Democrats are running Gerald Houseman. Souder
8th
John Hostettler (R) Freshman. One to watch. Narrowly held by the Democrats for 12 years, this seat offers a good guide to the national mood and may be picked up by Democrat Jonathon Wenzapfel. Hostettler
Iowa
4th
Greg Ganske (R) Freshman. Democrat Connie McBurney would have to be rated a good chance to retrieve this seat which elected a Democrat for 32 years up until 1994. Ganske
5th
Tom Latham (R) Freshman. Latham should be safe against MacDonald Smith (D) in this traditional Republican district. Latham
Kansas
2nd
Sam Brownback (R) Freshman. Brownback is not contesting this seat, but is running for Bob Dole’s old Senate seat. Prior to 1994, a Democrat held the seat for 12 years, but Dole’s presidential candidacy may help the new candidate, Jim Ryun. Ryun (R)
4th
Todd Tiahrt (R) Freshman. This was a surprise win in 1994. The defeated Democrat, Dan Glickman, is now Secretary of Agriculture. Like the 2nd district, this may be hard for the Democrats to win this time around. Tiahrt
Kentucky
1st
Edward Whitfield (R) Freshman. A complete upset win in 1994, expect to see this seat go to Democrat Dennis Null this year. Whitfield
3rd
Mike Ward (D) Freshman. Ward had a very narrow win in 1994, but should hold on in this district that leans Democrat. The Republican candidate is Anne Northup. Northup
Maine
1st
James Longley (R) Freshman. Recent polls show Democrat Tom Allen with a sizable lead over Longley, who won this seat narrowly in 1994. Allen
2nd
John Baldacci (D) Freshman. Whereas the 1st elected a GOP freshman in 1994, the 2nd chose a Democat. He is opposed by Paul Young (R) but should hang on. Baldacci
Maryland
2nd
Robert Ehrlich (R) Freshman. Ehrlich won by 26 points in 1994 in a Republican-leaning district in a Democratic state. The Democrat’s candidate is Connie Galiazzo DeJuliis. One to watch. Ehrlich
7th
Elijah Cummings (D) Freshman. Cummings replaced Kwesi Mfume (president of NAACP) in 1996. Expect his to trounce Republican Kenneth Kondner with a vote in the 70-80% region. Cummings
Michigan
8th
Dick Chrysler (R) Freshman. A seat being targeted by the Democrats in this marginal district. The Democrat candidate is state Senator Debbie Stabenow. Stabenow
13th
Lynn Rivers (D) Freshman. One of the few Democratic freshman in 1994. Expect her to be comfortably re-elected. Rivers
Minnesota
1st
Gil Gutknecht (R) Freshman. A classic swing seat to watch for on November 5. Gutknecht beat long-term Democrat, Tim Penny, in 1994. Gutknecht
6th
Bill Luther (D) Freshman. Luther won this seat, once held by Republican Sen. Rod Grams, and should be favoured to retain it in a rematch with his 1994 Republican opponent, Tad Jude. Luther
Mississippi
1st
Roger Wicker (R) Freshman. Wicker trounced the Democrats 63-37 in 1994 in this Republican district. No wonder Wicker voted against Term Limits! Wicker
Missouri
5th
Karen McCarthy (D) Freshman. McCarthy is safe in this traditional Democratic district. Even in 1994, she won by 14 points. McCarthy
Nebraska
2nd
Jon Christensen (R) Freshman. One to watch. Christensen won by only 1% in 1994 in a very dirty campaign. However, the district leans Republican and Christensen stands a good chance against Democrat James Davis. Christensen
Nevada
1st
John Ensign (R) Freshman. A must-win seat for the Democrats and their candidate, state Senator Bob Coffin. Ensign beat a long-term Democrat in 1994. Ensign
New Hampshire
2nd
Charles Bass (R) Freshman. One to watch. Bass faces Deborah “Arnie” Arnesen (D) in what is a close race. Bass
New Jersey
2nd
Frank LoBiondo (R) Freshman. LoBiondo won this seat in 1994, defeating a 20-year Democratic incumbent. He is favoured to beat Ruth Kane (D), but this is still a seat to watch. LoBiondo
8th
Bill Martini (R) Freshman. A swing seat, won by the Democrats in 1992, but lost in 1994. Martini is a liberal Republican who has voted against some measures in the Contract With America. Democrats candidate is William Pascrell Jr. Pascrell
11th
Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) Freshman. Democrat Chris Evangel has little hope in this the wealthiest district in New Jersey. Frelinghuysen
New York
1st
Michael Forbes (R) Freshman. Having beaten a veteran Democrat in 1994, Forbes is being targeted this time around. Bush won the district in 1992. One to watch. Forbes
4th
Dan Frisa (R) Freshman. The Democrat candidate, Carolyn McCarthy, whose husband was murdered in 1993, faces a Republican who gained this seat by knocking off a freshman Republican in the 1994 primary. It’s all very New York. McCarthy
19th
Sue Kelly (R) Freshman. This has been a Republican district since 1968, but Democrat Richard Klein could win if Kelly’s GOP primary rival, Joseph DioGuardi, runs as an independent. Kelly
North Carolina
2nd
David Funderburk (R) Freshman. This district leans Republican, but it will be a tight race, possibly influenced by the Helms-Gannt Senate contest. The Democrat candidate is Bob Etheridge. Etheridge
3rd
Walter Jones Jr. (R) Freshman. Jones is a former Democrat who appears hard to beat. The Democrats have nominated George Parrott. Jones
4th
Fred Heineman (R) Freshman. One to watch. This race is a rematch of 1994, with Democrat David Price attempting to retake his old seat. Heineman only won by 1000 votes in 1994 and has not been well recently. Price
5th
Richard Burr (R) Freshman. The 5th had Democratic representation for 20 years until Burr won it in 1994. He faces Democrat Neil Cashion Jr. in what is a tight contest. One to watch. Burr
9th
Sue Myrick (R) Freshman. This is a safe Republican district. Myrick should easily beat Democrat Mike Daisley. Myrick
Ohio
1st
Steve Chabot (R) Freshman. Despite being outspent in 1994, Chabot won this seat and faces Democrat Mark Longabaugh on November 5. Chabot
6th
Frank Cremeans (R) Freshman. Cremeans is in a rematch with Democrat Ted Strickland. He won by only 2% in a seat that has been unstable for recent incumbents. Strickland
18th
Bob Ney (R) Freshman. Democrat Rob Burch is hoping to regain this traditionally Democratic district which fell to the GOP in 1994. Ney
19th
Steven LaTourette (R) Freshman. One to watch. This seat has swung from Democrats to Republicans. LaTourette took it from freshman Eric Fingerhut and Tom Coyne Jr. is attempting to retrieve it this time. LaTourette
Oklahoma
1st
Steve Largent (R) Freshman. Another footballer who looks unbeatable in this Republican district. Largent
2nd
Tom Coburn (R) Freshman. One to watch. The Democrat candidate, state House Speaker Glen Johnson, should reclaim this Democratic district. In 1994 Coburn beat Virgil Cooper, who had defeated Rep. Mike Synar (dec.) in the Democratic primary. Coburn
4th
J.C. Watts Jr. (R) Freshman. One of two African American Republicans in Congress, Watts should be re-elected, although this district has traditionally been Democratic. Watts
Oregon
2nd
Wes Cooley (R) Freshman. Cooley is not running, as a result of scandals over the past 2 years. The GOP nominee is former Rep. Bob Smith, running against Democrat Mike Dugan. With Cooley out of the way, the GOP no longer fears a strong independent candidacy. Smith
3rd
Earl Blumenauer (D) Freshman. Elected only 5 months ago, Blumenauer should easily beat Republican Scott Bruun. Blumenauer
5th
Jim Bunn (R) Freshman. Bunn may have saved himself by distancing himself from the Contract With America, which he did not sign in 1994. The 5th tends to vote Democratic, but candidate Darlene Hooley has a tough job. Hooley
Pennsylvania
2nd
Chaka Fattah (D) Freshman. Republican candidate Larry G. Murphy is a token opponent in this solid Democratic district that voted 79% for Bill Clinton in 1992. Fattah
13th
Jon Fox (R) Freshman. Fox defeated one-term member Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky in 1992. They waved goodbye to her on the floor of the House and the voters did the same. Traditionally a Republican district. Democrat Joseph Hoeffel has a difficult task, but this may be a race worth watching. Fox, by 10 votes! Recount underway.
18th
Mike Doyle (D) Freshman. A district that leans Democratic, although it did elect Republican Rick Santorum for two terms. David Fawcett is the Republican candidate. Doyle
20th
Frank Mascara (D) Freshman. Mascara won this open seat in 1994 and faces a rematch on November 5 with Republican Mike McCormick. Traditionally Democratic district. Mascara
21st
Phil English (R) Freshman. One to watch. English won this seat (formerly held by Governor Tom Ridge) narrowly in 1994. The 21st tends to vote Democratic in the presidential race. The Republican candidate is Ronald Dinicola. English
Rhode Island
1st
Patrick Kennedy (D) Freshman. Once held by the Republicans, this seat should stay with this member of that famous family. Kennedy
South Carolina
1st
Marshall Sanford Jr. (R) Freshman. Sanford will definitely sit in the 105th Congress, since he had no opponent in the GOP primary and now has no opponent in the general election. A Republican district even when others do run. Sanford
3rd
Lindsey Graham (R) Freshman. Graham won this traditionally Democratic seat in an open contest in 1994. This might be one to watch to see the extent of Clinton’s coat-tails on November 5. Graham
Tennessee
3rd
Zach Wamp (R) Freshman. In a district that leans Republican in presidential elections, Wamp won this seat after the 20-year Democratic incumbent retired in 1994. Could be worth watching. Wamp
4th
Van Hilleary (R) Freshman. Hilleary could be one of the freshman class to go on November 5. It used to be a Democratic seat. Hilleary
7th
Ed Bryant (R) Freshman. Once held by Governor Don Sundquist, this is a traditionally Republican seat that Bryant should win easily. Bryant
Texas
9th
Steve Stockman (R) Freshman. This is one of the great tussles of this election. In 1994 Stockman defeated Democrat Jack Brooks who had held the seat for 42 years. The union movement and the Democratic Party are putting a lot of effort into this one. December run-off
10th
Lloyd Doggett (D) Freshman. This district was once held by former President Lyndon Johnson and has been Democratic since 1937. Doggett’s opponent is Republican Teresa Doggett, no relation. Lloyd Doggett is a liberal in a not too liberal state. Doggett
13th
Mac Thornberry (R) Freshman. Democrat Samual Silverman probably has little chance in this Republican district, even though it was formerly held by a Democrat. Thornberry
18th
Sheila Jackson-Lee (D) Freshman. The incumbent Democrat should have no trouble holding on to this seat, even though redistricting has reduced the black majority to a 45% plurality. Jackson-Lee
25th
Ken Bentsen (D) Freshman. Should be safe for Bentsen, although redistricting may force him into a December runoff when he could expect the GOP to come after him. December run-off
Utah
2nd
Enid Greene (R) Freshman. Like Wes Cooley, Greene’s scandal-ridden two years have resulted in her premature retirement. Former independent, Merrill Cook is running as the Republican candidate, whilst Ross Anderson is contesting for the Democrats. Cook
Virginia
11th
Tom Davis III (R) Freshman. Worth watching. Formerly Democratic, but Republican in recent presidential elections. The Democratic candidate is Tom Horton. Davis
Washington
1st
Rick White (R) Freshman. Like most of the districts in Washington, this is a battleground seat. White narrowly won in 1994, but will have a difficult job retaining it. White
2nd
Jack Metcalf (R) Freshman. Like the 1st, this district is the subject of much work by the Democrats and their candidate Quigley. Metcalf won it as an open seat in 1994. Definitely one to watch. Quigley initially ahead, Metcalf gaining
3rd
Linda Smith (R) Freshman. Smith did poorly in an open primary this year and can be expected to lose this seat if there is any kind of big Clinton win. The Democratic candidate is Brian Baird. Initially Baird, but Smith now ahead
4th
Richard Hastings (R) Freshman. Another win to the GOP in this Democratic state in 1994, although Hastings is regarded as being in the best position of any of the incumbent Republicans. One to watch. Hastings
5th
George Nethercutt (R) Freshman. Nethercutt defeated the former Speaker of the House, Tom Foley, in 1994, the first time this had happened since the Civil War. Some think he will hang on, but don’t bet on it. Nethercutt
9th
Randy Tate (R) Freshman. Tate polled even less than Linda Smith in the open primary in September, garnering 47% to Democrat Adam Smith’s 50%. Unlikely to hold on. Smith

 

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