1998 Federal Election: Two-Party-Preferred Statistics By State And Seat

This page provides detailed two-party-preferred results for the 1998 Federal Election.

The statistics are organised by state and territory. Each electorate in the House of Representatives is shown.

New South Wales

New South Wales is the largest State in the Commonwealth with the largest number of House of Representatives electorates. It is very difficult for any party to win office without winning a majority of seats in NSW.

Going into the 1998 election, the ALP held 20 of the 50 electorates. Despite securing a two-party swing of 4.11% in 1998, the ALP gained only an additional 2 seats (Lowe and Paterson) from the Liberal Party. This is a long way from the ALP’s high point of 33 seats in 1993.

The ALP two-party-preferred vote in NSW was 51.54%. With Victoria polling 53.53%, the nation’s two largest States (with 59%, or 87 of 148 House seats) preferred the ALP, but delivered less than half the seats in those States.

As in the other States, the swing to the ALP was concentrated more in seats the ALP already held, increasing its existing majorities without delivering extra seats in the House.

A feature of the NSW results was the success of Peter Andren, the independent member for Calare, who polled 40.55% of the primary vote and won easily on preferences.

The election in Newcastle was delayed until November 21, 1998, following the death of the Australian Democrats candidate the day before the general election. The Liberal Party did not stand a candidate at the supplementary election, so the two-party figure matches the ALP against the Greens.

There are now 6 coalition seats on margins under 3% going into the 2001 election: Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Page, Parramatta, Richmond and Robertson.

Two-Party-Preferred Statistics 1998
House of Representatives – New South Wales
No. Electorate % Swing To ALP
From 1996
ALP Coalition % Swing Required
To Lose In 2001
1 Banks
5.70
57.11
42.89
7.11
2 Barton
5.42
59.76
40.24
9.76
3 Bennelong
4.10
43.97
56.03
6.03
4 Berowra
4.88
36.48
63.52
13.52
5 Blaxland
9.08
72.06
27.94
22.06
6 Bradfield
2.56
26.80
73.20
23.20
7 Calare
-0.31
46.79
53.21
3.21
8 Charlton
3.65
62.97
37.03
12.97
9 Chifley
6.36
70.89
29.11
20.89
10 Cook
3.34
41.06
58.94
8.94
11 Cowper
5.20
43.64
56.36
6.36
12 Cunningham
5.29
68.20
31.80
18.20
13 Dobell
3.27
53.35
46.65
3.35
14 Eden-Monaro
4.58
49.82
50.18
0.18
15 Farrer
6.61
35.38
64.62
14.62
16 Fowler
8.06
76.33
23.67
26.33
17 Gilmore
2.20
45.96
54.04
4.04
18 Grayndler
5.95
72.32
27.68
22.32
19 Greenway
6.55
59.94
40.06
19.94
20 Gwydir
4.93
36.42
63.58
13.58
21 Hughes
-0.63
44.48
55.52
5.52
22 Hume
3.71
41.94
58.06
8.06
23 Hunter
7.73
64.69
35.31
14.69
24 Kingsford-Smith
3.26
63.40
36.60
13.40
25 Lindsay
0.30
48.72
51.28
1.28
26 Lowe
7.09
54.63
45.37
4.63
27 Lyne
5.71
40.28
59.72
9.72
28 Macarthur
5.06
44.37
55.63
5.63
29 Mackellar
0.88
34.36
65.64
15.64
30 Macquarie
2.26
45.90
54.10
4.10
31 Mitchell
4.47
30.15
69.85
19.85
32 Newcastle
6.14
67.33
32.67
Green
17.33
33 New England
6.25
37.07
62.93
12.93
34 North Sydney
3.34
37.78
62.22
12.22
35 Page
1.95
47.64
52.36
2.36
36 Parkes
2.39
45.89
54.11
4.11
37 Parramatta
2.80
48.93
51.07
1.07
38 Paterson
1.65
51.22
48.78
1.22
39 Prospect
5.81
69.71
30.29
19.71
40 Reid
10.26
71.64
28.36
21.64
41 Richmond
5.98
49.23
50.77
0.77
42 Riverina
5.71
34.70
65.30
15.30
43 Robertson
1.56
47.99
52.01
2.01
44 Shortland
4.66
62.81
37.19
12.81
45 Sydney
3.09
66.89
33.11
16.89
46 Throsby
2.84
72.46
27.54
22.46
47 Warringah
2.33
37.02
62.98
12.98
48 Watson
5.79
67.47
32.53
17.47
49 Wentworth
1.51
43.68
56.32
6.32
50 Werriwa
6.46
62.67
37.33
12.67
TOTAL
4.11
51.54
48.46

 

Victoria

In terms of seats the contest in Victoria was relatively even in 1998. The ALP won Bendigo, Chisholm and McMillan from the Liberal Party, increasing their total to a narrow majority 19 of the 37 seats.

A swing of 3.22% statewide to the ALP lifted its two-party-preferred vote to 53.53%. Interestingly, even in the electoral landslide of 1996, Victoria narrowly preferred the ALP with 50.31%.

The ALP was hoping for a larger swing in Victoria in 1998, but this did not eventuate and a number of seats the party was hoping to win (such as Ballarat, La Trobe, Deakin and McEwen) were retained by the Liberals, assisting their return to government.

These seats will be the ones to watch in the 2001 election. In the light of electoral volatility in rural areas, as witnessed in the 1999 State election, the seats of Gippsland, Corangamite and Indi may also be in contention.

Two-Party-Preferred Statistics 1998
House of Representatives – Victoria
No. Electorate % Swing To ALP
From 1996
ALP Coalition % Swing Required
To Lose In 2001
1 Aston
1.35
45.76
54.24
4.24
2 Ballarat
0.90
47.23
52.77
2.77
3 Batman
5.12
76.43
23.57
26.43
4 Bendigo
4.35
53.47
46.53
3.47
5 Bruce
5.96
56.72
43.28
6.72
6 Burke
0.58
57.61
42.39
7.61
7 Calwell
1.78
68.98
31.02
18.98
8 Casey
1.78
45.13
54.87
4.87
9 Chisholm
4.67
52.07
47.93
2.07
10 Corangamite
3.19
45.50
54.50
4.50
11 Corio
4.56
61.36
38.64
11.36
12 Deakin
0.55
48.07
51.93
1.93
13 Dunkley
1.32
47.96
52.04
2.04
14 Flinders
6.34
46.28
53.72
3.72
15 Gellibrand
4.68
75.91
24.09
25.91
16 Gippsland
9.81
41.17
58.83
8.83
17 Goldstein
2.79
41.85
58.15
8.15
18 Higgins
1.11
40.38
59.62
9.62
19 Holt
2.30
65.11
34.89
15.11
20 Hotham
3.03
63.59
36.41
13.59
21 Indi
7.69
39.89
60.11
10.11
22 Isaacs
4.84
56.40
43.60
6.40
22 Isaacs
By-Election
12-8-00
9.64
66.04
33.96
Dem
16.04
23 Jagajaga
3.20
55.91
44.09
5.91
24 Kooyong
2.42
38.61
61.39
11.39
25 Lalor
1.31
69.82
30.18
19.82
26 La Trobe
0.38
49.01
50.99
0.99
27 McEwen
1.13
48.96
51.04
1.04
28 McMillan
2.64
50.57
49.43
0.57
29 Mallee
4.13
30.63
69.37
19.37
30 Maribyrnong
3.20
72.06
27.94
22.06
31 Melbourne
1.59
71.80
28.20
21.80
32 Melbourne Ports
-0.22
55.83
44.17
5.83
33 Menzies
5.59
44.60
55.40
5.40
34 Murray
2.17
27.94
72.06
22.06
35 Scullin
1.10
71.84
28.16
21.84
36 Wannon
4.87
42.56
57.44
7.44
37 Wills
-1.26
70.96
29.04
2.86
TOTAL
3.22
53.53
46.47

 

Queensland

The ALP was devastated in Queensland in 1996, retaining only 2 seats, Brisbane and Rankin, and polling only 39.78% of the two-party-preferred vote.

In 1998, the ALP secured a two-party swing of 7.17%, lifting it’s vote to 46.95%. This allowed it to retake 6 seats: Bowman, Capricornia, Dickson, Griffith, Lilley and Oxley.

UPDATE: At a by-election in March 2001, the ALP added Ryan to its tally, giving it 9 of the 27 Queensland seats. There are now 7 seats held by margins of less than 1% and another 4 seats under 4%. By any measure, Queensland will be a major battleground in the 2001 election.

The 1998 election saw Oxley return to the ALP, following the decision by Pauline Hanson to contest the new semi-rural seat of Blair. Despite topping the primary vote count with 35.97%, Hanson was defeated after preferences by the Liberal candidate, Cameron Thompson.

Two-Party-Preferred Statistics 1998
House of Representatives – Queensland
No. Electorate % Swing To ALP
From 1996
ALP Coalition % Swing Required
To Lose In 2001
1 Blair
10.61
41.97
58.03
8.03
2 Bowman
4.18
53.29
46.71
3.29
3 Brisbane
3.93
54.59
45.41
4.59
4 Capricornia
8.75
55.29
44.71
5.29
5 Dawson
6.43
45.58
54.42
4.42
6 Dickson
4.02
50.12
49.88
0.12
7 Fadden
9.96
42.41
57.59
7.59
8 Fairfax
13.25
45.64
54.36
4.36
9 Fisher
9.64
39.00
61.00
11.00
10 Forde
6.76
44.75
55.25
5.25
11 Griffith
3.93
52.43
47.57
2.43
12 Groom
8.25
36.96
63.04
13.04
13 Herbert
6.52
49.90
50.10
0.10
14 Hinkler
7.60
49.66
50.34
0.34
15 Kennedy
2.97
38.81
61.19
11.19
16 Leichhardt
0.52
45.95
54.05
4.05
17 Lilley
3.51
53.13
46.87
3.13
18 Longman
8.98
49.08
50.92
0.92
19 McPherson
8.82
41.66
58.34
8.34
20 Maranoa
7.07
35.58
64.42
14.42
21 Moncrieff
7.63
37.17
62.83
12.83
22 Moreton
5.40
49.43
50.57
0.57
23 Oxley
7.85
58.20
41.80
8.20
24 Petrie
7.52
49.25
50.75
0.75
25 Rankin
9.07
58.69
41.31
8.69
26 Ryan
7.46
40.48
59.52
9.52
26 Ryan
By-Election
17-3-01
9.69
50.17
49.83
0.17
27 Wide Bay
15.32
47.14
52.86
2.86
TOTAL
7.17
46.95
53.05

 

Western Australia

Western Australia was the most volatile state in the 1998 election. Half of the 14 electorates returned new members, an unprecedented turnover.

The ALP secured a statewide swing of 5.46% to lift its vote to 49.46%, within striking distance of an overall two-party-preferred majority, and recovering a lot of the ground lost in the 1996 election.

The ALP won 4 seats from the Liberal Party – Canning, Cowan, Stirling and Swan – giving it 7 of the 14 electorates in the State.

The Liberal Party regained Curtin and Moore from independent members. Allan Rocher (Curtin) and Paul Filing (Moore) had held those seats as Liberals until 1996 when they each stood as independents after losing Liberal Party pre-selection.

The Liberal Party also won Kalgoorlie from the Australia First member, Graeme Campbell. Campbell had held the seat as an ALP member since 1983, but lost pre-selection and won the 1996 election as an independent.

For the first time in his political career, Opposition Leader Kim Beazley could now claim to hold a safe seat, following a 12.29% swing to him in Brand.

Canning, Cowan, Stirling and Swan remain marginal seats for the ALP going into the 2001 election, although the attention is more likely to focus on Kalgoorlie and other Liberal-held seats such as Moore, Pearce and Tangney. The volatility shown in the 2001 Western Australian State election, where dissident Liberals, Greens and One Nation candidates polled strongly, will be of concern to the Liberal Party.

Two-Party-Preferred Statistics 1998
House of Representatives – Western Australia
No. Electorate % Swing To ALP
From 1996
ALP Coalition % Swing Required
To Lose In 2001
1 Brand
11.44
62.29
37.71
12.29
2 Canning
5.16
53.52
46.48
3.52
3 Cowan
7.62
53.56
46.44
3.56
4 Curtin
-0.06
36.72
63.28
13.28
5 Forrest
7.21
43.12
56.88
6.88
6 Fremantle
5.81
60.02
39.98
10.02
7 Kalgoorlie
-2.80
47.90
52.10
2.10
8 Moore
4.40
45.87
54.13
4.13
9 O’Connor
6.02
34.86
65.14
15.14
10 Pearce
8.29
44.70
55.30
5.30
11 Perth
6.60
63.28
36.72
13.28
12 Stirling
4.26
51.04
48.96
1.04
13 Swan
6.33
52.70
47.30
2.70
14 Tangney
5.96
44.10
55.90
5.90
TOTAL
5.46
49.46
50.54

 

South Australia

South Australia was a disappointment to the ALP in 1998. Despite a statewide swing of 4.15%, it only won the seat of Kingston from the Liberal Party and is outnumbered 9 seats to 3.

The coalition won a clear majority of the two-party-preferred vote and was cushioned against the swing to the ALP by the large margin it secured in 1996.

The electorates of Adelaide, Kingston, Hindmarsh and Makin will be important battlegrounds in the 2001 election.

Another seat to watch will be Mayo, held by the Foreign Affairs Minister, Alexander Downer, who was nearly defeated in 1998 by John Schumann from the Australian Democrats. Schumann polled 22.43% of the primary vote and 48.26% of the two-party-preferred.

Two-Party-Preferred Statistics 1998
House of Representatives – South Australia
No. Electorate % Swing To ALP
From 1996
ALP Coalition % Swing Required
To Lose In 2001
1 Adelaide
2.58
49.09
50.91
0.91
2 Barker
7.14
36.26
63.74
13.74
3 Bonython
5.07
64.53
35.47
14.53
4 Boothby
4.16
42.55
57.45
7.45
5 Grey
0.50
41.96
58.04
8.04
6 Hindmarsh
6.83
48.77
51.23
1.23
7 Kingston
2.48
50.47
49.53
0.47
8 Makin
0.14
49.06
50.94
0.94
9 Mayo
5.26
40.10
59.90
9.90
10 Port Adelaide
9.06
66.10
33.90
16.10
11 Sturt
2.70
42.71
57.29
7.29
12 Wakefield
3.67
33.71
66.29
16.29
TOTAL
4.15
46.89
53.11

 

Tasmania

Tasmania was the ALP’s best State in 1998. It won Lyons and Bass from the Liberal Party and now holds all 5 electorates, the first time it has done so since 1975.

The ALP garnered a statewide swing of 5.74%, a performance surpassed only in Queensland and the ACT. It’s two-party-preferred vote of 57.32% gives it a comfortable margin going into the 2001 election.

Bass remains the most volatile electorate in Tasmania. It was won by the Liberal Party’s Warwick Smith in 1990, the ALP’s Silvia Smith in 1993, regained by Warwick Smith in 1996 and lost to the ALP’s Michelle O’Byrne in 1998.

Two-Party-Preferred Statistics 1998
House of Representatives – Tasmania
No. Electorate % Swing To ALP
From 1996
ALP Coalition % Swing Required
To Lose In 2001
1 Bass
4.63
50.06
49.94
0.06
2 Braddon
10.02
54.33
45.67
4.33
3 Denison
2.72
64.51
35.49
14.51
4 Franklin
1.92
56.60
43.40
6.60
5 Lyons
9.30
60.61
39.39
10.61
TOTAL
5.74
57.32
42.68

 

Australian Capital Territory

The A.C.T. remained an ALP stronghold in 1998. It secured an overall swing of 6.98% and held both lower house electorates with margins over 10%.

Whilst Canberrans turned on the ALP in the Canberra by-election in 1995 and returned a Liberal member, Brendan Smyth, he was defeated in the 1996 general election, gaining the dubious distinction of being the only incumbent coalition member to lose.

Given the cuts in government spending and the Howard government’s policies towards the Public Service, it is highly unlikely that there will be any joy in this territory for the Liberals in 2001, although the Australian Democrats will be aiming to win a Senate seat. The Democrats polled 16.66% in the ACT Senate election in 1998. They need to double this if they are to have any hope of defeating Senate President Margaret Reid.

Two-Party-Preferred Statistics 1998
House of Representatives – Australian Capital Territory
No. Electorate % Swing To ALP
From 1996
ALP Coalition % Swing Required
To Lose In 2001
1 Canberra
7.74
60.06
39.94
10.06
2 Fraser
6.00
64.86
35.14
14.86
TOTAL
6.98
62.44
37.56

 

Northern Territory

The Northern Territory is one of the most closely-fought contests in every Federal election. Won narrowly by the ALP in 1998, with a swing of less than 1%, the seat is always one of the last to be decided.

In 2001, the Northern Territory will be abolished and replaced by two new seats, Solomon and Lingiari.

Based on 1998 figures, Lingiari is an ALP seat with a margin of 3.7%, whilst Solomon would be won by the coalition with a margin of 2.3%.

Two-Party-Preferred Statistics 1998
House of Representatives – Northern Territory
No. Electorate % Swing To ALP
From 1996
ALP Coalition % Swing Required
To Lose In 2001
1 Northern Territory
0.94
50.57
49.43
0.57
TOTAL
0.94
50.57
50.98

 

Source: Australian Electoral Commission publications


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