2001 Federal Election Pendulum

The election pendulum ranks the 150 electorates in the House of Representatives won by each party on a two-party-preferred basis.

The pendulum is based on the 1998 election results in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania and the ACT. In New South Wales, Western Australia and the Northern Territory, redistributions have taken place, so the margins have been derived from the new boundaries.

Two additional seats have been created for this election. In Western Australia, the new electorate of Hasluck is notionally ALP. The Northern Territory electorate has been divided in two, notionally creating one ALP seat (Lingiari) and one CLP seat (Solomon).

In NSW, Paterson, held by the ALP’s Bob Horne, is now notionally Liberal and Macarthur, held by the retiring John Fahey, is notionally ALP.

The pendulum puts Calwell in the ALP column, since this is traditionally a safe ALP seat. The current member, Andrew Theophanous, resigned from the ALP and has been sitting as an independent. He will be replaced by the new Labor candidate, Maria Vamvakinou.

The electorate of Kennedy, currently held by Bob Katter, elected as a National, but now sitting as an independent, has been placed in the coalition column.

The electorate of Calare, held by the independent Peter Andren, has been placed in the ALP column on the basis that it is a non-government seat.

Assuming the notional placements hold in the election, the government has 78 seats, the ALP has 70 and there are two independents, Peter Andren and Bob Katter. The ALP therefore needs to hold all 70 seats and win another six from the coalition. The pendulum shows that a swing of 0.7% would deliver six seats.

COALITION SEATS
(Seat/State/margin %)
ALP SEATS
(margin %/Seat/State)
26.4 Batman VIC 1
26.0 Fowler NSW 2
25.9 Gellibrand VIC 3
22.4 Throsby NSW 4
22.3 Grayndler NSW 5
22.3 Calare (IND) NSW 6
22.2 Reid NSW 7
1 Murray VIC 22.1 22.1 Maribyrnong VIC 8
21.8 Scullin VIC 9
21.8 Melbourne VIC 10
21.7 Blaxland NSW 11
2 Bradfield NSW 21.3 21.3 Chifley NSW 12
21.0 Wills VIC 13


19.8 Lalor VIC 14
3 Mitchell NSW 19.5 19.8 Sydney NSW 15
4 Mallee (NP) VIC 19.4 19.0 Calwell (IND) VIC 16
17.8 Cunningham NSW 17
5 Mackellar NSW 17.1 17.6 Watson NSW 18
6 Wakefield SA 16.6 16.8 Prospect NSW 19
7 O’Connor WA 16.6 16.5 Newcastle NSW 20
15.7 Port Adelaide SA 21
8 Riverina (NP) NSW 14.7 15.1 Holt VIC 22
9 Maranoa (NP) QLD 14.4 14.9 Fraser ACT 23
10 Farrer (NP) NSW 14.2 14.5 Denison TAS 24
11 Barker SA 14.0 14.1 Hunter NSW 25
12 New England (NP) NSW 13.7 13.6 Hotham VIC 26
13 Curtin WA 13.5 13.4 Brand WA 27
14 Berowra NSW 13.3 13.3 Bonython SA 28
15 Groom QLD 13.0 13.0 Kingsford-Smith NSW 29


16 Moncrieff QLD 12.8 12.6 Werriwa NSW 30
17 Warringah NSW 12.8 12.5 Perth WA 31
18 North Sydney NSW 12.7 12.3 Fremantle WA 32
19 Gwydir (NP) NSW 12.0 12.2 Shortland NSW 33
20 Kooyong VIC 11.4 12.2 Charlton NSW 34
21 Kennedy (IND) QLD 11.2 11.4 Corio VIC 35
22 Fisher QLD 11.0 11.1 Lyons TAS 36
23 Indi VIC 10.1
24 Lyne (NP) NSW 10.1 10.1 Canberra ACT 37


25 Higgins VIC 9.6 9.8 Barton NSW 38
26 Cook NSW 9.4 9.5 Greenway NSW 39
27 Grey SA 9.0
28 Gippsland (NP) VIC 8.8 8.7 Rankin QLD 40
29 McPherson QLD 8.3
30 Goldstein VIC 8.2 8.2 Oxley QLD 41
31 Blair QLD 8.0


32 Sturt SA 7.7
33 Boothby SA 7.6 7.6 Burke VIC 42
34 Fadden QLD 7.6
35 Wentworth NSW 7.4
36 Wannon VIC 7.4
37 Hume NSW 7.3 7.3 Banks NSW 43
38 Tangney WA 7.0


6.7 Bruce VIC 44
39 Hughes NSW 6.4 6.6 Franklin TAS 45
40 Parkes (NP) NSW 6.4 6.4 Isaacs VIC 46


41 Macquarie NSW 5.8 5.9 Jaga Jaga VIC 47
42 Cowper (NP) NSW 5.7 5.8 Melbourne Ports VIC 48
43 Moore WA 5.6 5.5 Lingiari NT 49
44 Menzies VIC 5.4 5.3 Capricornia QLD 50
45 Bennelong NSW 5.2
46 Pearce WA 5.2
47 Forde QLD 5.2


48 Casey VIC 4.9 4.7 Lowe NSW 51
49 Forrest WA 4.6 4.6 Brisbane QLD 52
50 Gilmore NSW 4.6
51 Corangamite VIC 4.5
52 Fairfax QLD 4.4
53 Dawson QLD 4.4 4.3 Braddon TAS 53
54 Leichhardt QLD 4.1


55 Flinders VIC 3.7 3.6 Cowan WA 54
56 Page (NP) NSW 3.4 3.5 Bendigo VIC 55
3.3 Bowman QLD 56
57 Lindsay NSW 3.0 3.1 Lilley QLD 57


58 Wide Bay QLD 2.9 2.8 Swan WA 58
59 Ballarat VIC 2.8 2.6 Hasluck WA 59
60 Solomon (CLP) NT 2.2 2.5 Parramatta NSW 60
61 Kalgoorlie WA 2.1 2.4 Griffith QLD 61
62 Robertson NSW 2.0 2.2 Stirling WA 62
63 Dunkley VIC 2.0 2.1 Chisholm VIC 63


64 Deakin VIC 1.9 1.9 Kingston SA 64
65 Mayo SA 1.7 1.7 Macarthur NSW 65
66 Paterson NSW 1.3 1.5 Dobell NSW 66
67 Hindmarsh SA 1.2
68 McEwen VIC 1.0
69 La Trobe VIC 1.0


70 Longman QLD 0.9
71 Richmond (NP) NSW 0.8
72 Petrie QLD 0.8
73 Makin SA 0.8
74 Adelaide SA 0.7
75 Aston VIC 0.6 0.6 MacMillan VIC 67
76 Moreton QLD 0.6 0.4 Canning WA 68
77 Eden-Monaro NSW 0.6 0.2 Ryan QLD 69
78 Hinkler (NP) QLD 0.3 0.1 Dickson QLD 70
79 Herbert QLD 0.1 0.1 Bass TAS 71


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