The Labor caucus has bound itself to Julia Gillard. It is impossible to imagine a Rudd revival.

Whilst disquiet will arise again if Gillard stumbles, it is equally difficult to imagine a so-called third candidate emerging.

The caucus and Gillard will sink or swim together.

The 71-31 vote in favour of Gillard is a handy reminder of the culture and prerogatives of the parliamentary party room.

“You need to target the right constituency,” Mark Latham said on television this morning, arguing that Rudd lost votes by campaigning in the media instead of concentrating on the caucus.

The message to the electorate is also stark and direct. Forget Kevin Rudd, he’s not coming back. June 2010 was then. Now it’s Gillard or Abbott. Make your choice. [Read more...]

I was leaning on the counter of a well-known department store at 5.20pm last night when I became aware of Kevin Rudd’s face on about 50 television sets along one wall.

The strap with “Rudd Resigns” suddenly jumped out at me and I involuntarily blurted the news to the young salesman opposite.

His instant, unsolicited response?

“I hoped it was going to be her.”

And therein lies the dilemma that only the ALP’s wilfully blind will not concede.

Julia Gillard may treat the other 102 caucus members respectfully, as Wayne Swan claimed last night. She may smile at them and make them feel consulted. She may master her brief and get on well with the public servants in Canberra. She may navigate the hung parliament with skill.

But in the broader community she is electoral poison: disliked, distrusted and dismissed.

That is why Kevin Rudd is on a plane flying home to Australia today. He is the anti-Gillard. If she was any good, he wouldn’t even matter. [Read more...]

I blame John Gorton and Malcolm Fraser. I was a young schoolboy in 1971 when their brawling inside the decaying coalition government awakened me to politics.

Their struggle culminated in a leadership challenge. William McMahon fought Gorton to a draw, so Gorton plucked a casting ballot out of thin air to vote himself out of the prime ministership. The ridiculous and treacherous McMahon became prime minister, and the Liberals compensated Gorton by making him deputy leader. I was hooked. Who wouldn’t be?

Since then, one of life’s little pleasures has been the surprisingly regular parade of state and federal leadership challenges.

These contests are politics in the open, raw, visceral and unadorned. Electorate, party, factional and personal factors come together. Interests compete. The noble and brave collide with the base and cowardly. Policy meets electoral reality. Conviction and ambition take a good look at each other. Purity withers and survival usually wins.

It is the individual us writ large. [Read more...]