An election defeat of historic proportions seems to be looming for the Gillard Labor government.
As a rule, I’m more interested in trying to explain an election result after we know the outcome. However, let’s take a stab at predicting the result.
I don’t regard these predictions as particularly startling or original. They are based on the published opinion polls, assorted news items and anecdotal reports. In some cases, I have local knowledge. In others, I’m influenced by historical results. Often, I’m just guessing. Don’t take it too seriously.
Some assumptions and explanations:
- I believe the Gillard government is going to lose and lose badly. I believe this outcome has been certain for the past two years.
- All of the published opinion polls (Newspoll, Nielsen, Essential, Galaxy, Morgan) have been showing a 4-6% swing against the ALP for most of the past two years. Seats in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia are particularly at risk and the swing is expected to be much greater in Labor areas. Rural and regional areas have turned decisively against Labor. During this year, an emerging view has Tasmania, South Australia and Victoria joining the trend, after having swung toward the ALP in 2010. On this basis, I expect the ALP’s result to be worse than 1996, probably closer to 1975. It could be worse than 1975. I expect the ALP to lose a minimum of 25 seats. CLICK HERE for tables showing the ALP’s federal election record.
- I don’t expect any members of the Coalition parties to lose their seats. My starting point for the Coalition is 73 seats, including Peter Slipper in Fisher and Tony Crook in O’Connor. Both of these men will be replaced by new members.
- The ALP goes into the election with 72 seats, including Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. Thomson currently sits as an independent. The tables below deal only with those 72 seats.
- In addition to the 145 seats held by the ALP and the Coalition, another 4 are held by independents and 1 by the Greens. There are 150 seats up for election.
- The electorate of Melbourne is the only seat I think it is possible for the ALP to pick up. If the Greens member, Adam Bandt, can improve his primary vote, he may win, even if the Liberals preference Labor. This will be one to watch on the night.
- CLICK HERE to see a colour-coded table of election outcomes in each seat for the past 10 elections.
ALP SEATS MOST LIKELY TO BE LOST (28)
These seats are the ALP’s most marginal. However, it includes some seats once regarded as safe Labor, particularly in NSW. It seems to be generally accepted that the ALP is doing especially badly in NSW, so I have given away all of its rural seats and made a call on others that don’t seem marginal on the swing.
A.L.P. SEATS MOST LIKELY TO BE LOST (28) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
No. | SEAT | STATE | MEMBER | MARGIN % |
ALP SEATS AT SERIOUS RISK (9)
Some of these seats have been marginal and switched parties at various times in recent years, especially when government has changed hands. Whether they are at serious risk or merely at risk is open to debate. Electoral boundaries have altered over time, so historical comparisons are fraught.
The NSW seats of McMahon and Werriwa are traditionally safe Labor seats. They are in this table because they have slimmer margins than Chifley and Blaxland which appear in the next table.
Whilst Oxley and Rankin have been held by the ALP for many years, they are placed in this table because an ALP rout is expected in Queensland.
Similarly, I have put the two remaining seats in Tasmania in this table because various reports suggest the ALP is in deep trouble in the island state.
A.L.P. SEATS AT SERIOUS RISK (9) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
No. | SEAT | STATE | MEMBER | MARGIN % |
ALP SEATS AT RISK (10)
Some of these seats have never been held by the Liberal Party. Others have switched between the parties on occasion. For Labor to lose a significant number of these seats would be a sign of a catastrophic defeat.
The NSW seats are of particular interest. The ALP was walloped in these areas at the 2011 state election and it is widely believed that many traditionally safe Labor seats are at risk. My classification of these seats is somewhat arbitrary.
Many people think Kevin Rudd is the only member capable of holding a seat in Queensland. I’m not so convinced. Since he is no longer a viable contender for the leadership, I can’t see any reason why his electorate will not follow the rest of the state. Nevertheless, he is probably at less risk than the other Queensland Labor members.
A.L.P. SEATS AT RISK (10) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
No. | SEAT | STATE | MEMBER | MARGIN % |
BEDROCK: ALP SEATS MOST LIKELY TO BE RETAINED (25)
These seats are the ALP’s safest. Most of them have never been held by the Liberal Party. If these seats start to fall, it will be a very unpleasant election night for the ALP. I have made a couple of judgment calls with the NSW seats and assumed that the anti-Labor vote in South Australia won’t be as severe as elsewhere.
A.L.P. SEATS MOST LIKELY TO BE RETAINED (25) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
No. | SEAT | STATE | MEMBER | MARGIN % |
- The swings used in the tables above are taken from Antony Green’s 2013 Australian Electoral Pendulum.
- Ben Raue has federal electorate profiles at The Tally Room.
- The Poll Bludger also has electorate profiles.
- The ABC’s Antony Green has an Election Calculator.
- The Australian Electoral Commission has profiles of electoral divisions.
- Peter Brent has electorate profiles and links to ABS census data at Mumble.