Update On Undecided Seats – Hung Parliament Looks Most Likely

11.39pm – Today I have removed 4 seats from the list of undecideds.

The 4 seats no longer considered undecided are: Robertson, Batman, La Trobe and Petrie.

Their removal means that the Coalition now has 68 seats, the ALP 66, and Others 5.

Of the 11 remaining seats in doubt, the Coalition is ahead in 5 and the ALP is ahead in 6. If these seats were to stay that way, the Coalition would finish with 73 seats, the ALP 72, and Others 5. The government would be three seats short of an absolute majority and we would have a hung Parliament.

Many media reports say there are only 8 or 9 doubtful seats. I have included Barker and Grey because the Australian Electoral Commission has not finished the reordering of two-party-preferred votes (Labor v. Liberal) to two-candidate-preferred (Liberal v. Xenophon). Both seats are likely to remain with the Liberals.

I have also included Melbourne Ports in the list of doubtful seats. There is a possibility that the full distribution of preferences could see the Greens overtake the ALP and move into second place. ALP preferences could then elect either the Green or Liberal candidate. The incumbent Labor MP, Michael Danby, issued a how-to-vote card that placed the Liberal candidate ahead of the Green. This adds an extra complication to predictions for this seat.

Ten seats in the table all have a margin of close-to or less than 1000 votes. Most have a margin of less than 1%. Experience shows that a margin of 1000 votes is unlikely to be reversed by postal, absent and declaration votes, although this varies widely between electorates.

There is a case to be made that Forde is the only doubtful seat left, but such a judgment is somewhat premature. The picture should be clearer by the end of Wednesday, July 6, after the counting of more postal votes.

House of Representatives – Undecided Seats
No. Seat Margin
(Sun)
Margin
(Tue)
Incumbent Party 2PP % Main Opponent 2PP % Swing %
NEW SOUTH WALES
1.
Gilmore
405
353
Ann Sudmalis (Lib)
50.20
Fiona Phillips (ALP)
49.80
3.58 to ALP
VICTORIA
2.
Chisholm
66
362
Stefanie Perri (ALP)
49.73
Julia Banks (Lib)
50.27
1.87 to Liberal
3.
Dunkley
438
421
Chris Crewther (Lib)
50.31
Peta Murphy (ALP)
49.69
5.26 to ALP
4.
Melbourne Ports
3,252
3,252
Michael Danby (ALP)
52.73
Owen Guest (Lib)
47.27
0.83 to Liberal
QUEENSLAND
5.
Capricornia
991
994
Michelle Landry (LNP)
49.32
Leisa Neaton (ALP)
50.68
1.45 to ALP
6.
Forde
149
104
Bert van Manen (LNP)
49.92
Des Hardman (ALP)
50.08
4.46 to ALP
7.
Herbert
1,084
694
Ewen Jones (LNP)
49.26
Cathy O’Toole (ALP)
50.74
6.63 to ALP
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
8.
Cowan
959
959
Luke Simpkins (Lib)
49.27
Anne Aly (ALP)
50.73
5.25 to ALP
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
9.
Barker
99
218
Tony Pasin (Lib)
51.92
James Stacey (NXT)
48.08
48.08 to NXT
10.
Grey
782
1,884
Rowan Ramsey (Lib)
55.50
Andrea Broadfoot (NXT)
44.50
44.50 to NXT
11.
Hindmarsh
432
347
Matt Williams (Lib)
49.80
Steve Georganas (ALP)
50.20
2.09 to ALP

 

*

House of Representatives – SEATS NO LONGER IN DOUBT
No. Seat Vote Margin Incumbent Party 2PP % Main Opponent 2PP % Swing %
NEW SOUTH WALES
1.
Robertson
1,183
Lucy Wicks (Lib)
50.73
Anne Charlton (ALP)
49.27
2.36 to ALP
VICTORIA
2.
Batman
2,627
David Feeney (ALP)
51.79
Alex Bhathal (Greens)
48.21
8.82 to Greens
3.
La Trobe
1,350
Jason Wood (Lib)
50.95
Simon Curtis (ALP)
49.05
3.06 to ALP
QUEENSLAND
4.
Petrie
1,695
Luke Howarth (LNP)
51.13
Jacqui Pedersen (ALP)
48.87
0.60 to LNP



Source: Australian Electoral Commission

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