Turnbull Government Returned To Office, But Majority Or Minority Status Still Not Clear

11.52pm – Counting in undecided seats brought the Turnbull government closer to re-election today, although the ultimate prize remains tantalisingly out of reach for yet another day.

There seems litle doubt now that Forde is a gain for the Liberal National Party in Queensland. After taking the lead yesterday, the LNP was up by 687 votes tonight. The trend in the counting of postal, absentee, provisional and declaration pre-poll votes is clear. Forde has been taken out of the Undecided table below.

This change means that the Coalition now has 74 seats, the ALP 66, and Others 5.

Of the 5 remaining seats in doubt, the ALP is ahead in all 5 (Capricornia, Flynn, Herbert, Hindmarsh and Cowan). If these leads are maintained, the Coalition will finish with 74 seats, the ALP 71, and Others 5.

However, the ALP’s lead has been shrinking in each seat following each day’s counting. In Hindmarsh, for example, the ALP fell to an 8-vote lead today before jumping back up to 68. The figures are shown in the table below.

The most dramatic change in the past 24 hours has been in Flynn, where postal votes are flowing 62.78% to the LNP and the ALP’s lead has been cut from 1,824 votes to 646 over two days of counting.

All the seats still have some postal votes left to count. Absentee votes have now arrived in most electorates and these will be added to the count in coming days.

The independent member for Kennedy, Bob Katter, today gave his support on confidence and supply to the government, effectively giving it 75 votes in the House. If the government were to win any two of the five remaining doubtful seats, it would have 76 votes on its own and be capable of governing alone. It is not clear at this stage which of the seats will be the first to fall to the government, although Flynn and Hindmarsh appear most likely.

The Turnbull government has been returned to office. Whether this is as a minority or majority government is not yet known. Counting continues tomorrow.

House of Representatives – Undecided Seats
No. Seat Margin
(Wed)
Margin
(Thu)
Incumbent Party 2PP % Main Opponent 2PP % Swing %
QUEENSLAND
1.
Capricornia
732
476
Michelle Landry (LNP)
49.69
Leisa Neaton (ALP)
50.31
1.08 to ALP
2.
Flynn
1,065
646
Ken O’Dowd (LNP)
49.56
Zac Beers (ALP)
50.44
6.97 to ALP
3.
Herbert
620
449
Ewen Jones (LNP)
49.71
Cathy O’Toole (ALP)
50.29
6.46 to ALP
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
4.
Cowan
701
534
Luke Simpkins (Lib)
49.62
Anne Aly (ALP)
50.38
4.90 to ALP
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
5.
Hindmarsh
151
68
Matt Williams (Lib)
49.96
Steve Georganas (ALP)
50.04
1.93 to ALP

 

*

House of Representatives – SEATS NO LONGER IN DOUBT
No. Seat Vote Margin Incumbent Party 2PP % Main Opponent 2PP % Swing %
NEW SOUTH WALES
1.
Gilmore
1,316
Ann Sudmalis (Lib)
50.69
Fiona Phillips (ALP)
49.31
3.09 to ALP
2.
Robertson
2,127
Lucy Wicks (Lib)
51.23
Anne Charlton (ALP)
49.77
1.86 to ALP
VICTORIA
3.
Batman
2,410
David Feeney (ALP)
51.60
Alex Bhathal (Greens)
48.40
9.01 to Greens
4.
Chisholm
2,026
Stefanie Perri (ALP)
48.66
Julia Banks (Lib)
51.34
2.94 to Liberal
5.
Dunkley
1,743
Chris Crewther (Lib)
51.15
Peta Murphy (ALP)
48.85
4.42 to ALP
6.
La Trobe
2,169
Jason Wood (Lib)
51.43
Simon Curtis (ALP)
48.57
2.58 to ALP
7.
Melbourne Ports
2,973
Michael Danby (ALP)
52.35
Owen Guest (Lib)
47.65
1.21 to Liberal
QUEENSLAND
8.
Forde
687
Bert van Manen (LNP)
50.48
Des Hardman (ALP)
49.52
3.90 to ALP
9.
Petrie
2,105
Luke Howarth (LNP)
51.35
Jacqui Pedersen (ALP)
48.65
0.82 to LNP
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
10.
Barker
3,560
Tony Pasin (Lib)
57.81
James Stacey (NXT)
42.19
42.19 to NXT
11.
Grey
2,919
Rowan Ramsey (Lib)
52.01
Andrea Broadfoot (NXT)
47.99
47.99 to NXT



*

House of Representatives – Decided Seats
Party Seats Total
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY NSW (24): Barton, Blaxland, Chifley, Cunningham, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Fowler, Grayndler, Greenway, Hunter, Kingsford Smith, Lindsay, Macarthur, Macquarie, McMahon, Newcastle, Parramatta, Paterson, Richmond, Shortland, Sydney, Watson, Werriwa, Whitlam.
VIC (18): Ballarat, Batman, Bendigo, Bruce, Calwell, Corio, Gellibrand, Gorton, Holt, Hotham, Isaacs, Jagajaga, Lalor, Maribyrnong, McEwen, Melbourne Ports, Scullin, Wills.
QLD (7): Blair, Griffith, Lilley, Longman, Moreton, Oxley, Rankin.
WA (4): Brand, Burt, Fremantle. Perth.
SA (5): Adelaide, Kingston, Makin, Port Adelaide, Wakefield.
TAS (4): Bass, Braddon, Franklin, Lyons.
ACT (2): Canberra, Fenner.
NT (2): Lingiari, Solomon.
66
The COALITION consists of the Liberal Party, Liberal National Party (Qld) and The Nationals. They are shown separately below. The Coalition has 74 seats.
LIBERAL NSW (16): Banks, Bennelong, Berowra, Bradfield, Cook, Farrer, Gilmore, Hughes, Hume, Mackellar, Mitchell, North Sydney, Reid, Robertson, Warringah, Wentworth.
VIC (14): Aston, Casey, Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin, Dunkley, Flinders, Goldstein, Higgins, Kooyong, La Trobe, McMillan, Menzies, Wannon.
WA (11): Canning, Curtin, Durack, Forrest, Hasluck, Moore, O’Connor, Pearce, Stirling, Swan, Tangney.
SA (4): Barker, Boothby, Grey, Sturt.
45
LIBERAL NATIONAL (LNP-QLD) QLD (19): Bonner, Bowman, Brisbane, Dawson, Dickson, Fadden, Fairfax, Fisher, Forde Groom, Hinkler, Leichhardt, Maranoa, McPherson, Moncrieff, Petrie, Ryan, Wide Bay, Wright
19
NATIONALS NSW (7): Calare, Cowper, Lyne, New England, Page, Parkes, Riverina.
VIC (3): Gippsland, Mallee, Murray.
10
GREENS VIC (1): Melbourne.
1
NICK XENOPHON TEAM (NXT) SA (1): Mayo.
1
INDEPENDENT VIC (1): Indi.
QLD (1): Kennedy.
TAS (1): Denison.
3
IN DOUBT QLD (4): Capricornia, Flynn, Forde, Herbert.
WA (1): Cowan.
SA (1): Hindmarsh.
6
TOTAL
150



Source: Australian Electoral Commission

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