Coalition Secures Absolute Majority Of 76; Labor Claims Cowan; Just Two Seats Still Undecided

11.45pm – As election counting entered its second week today, the ALP claimed victory in Cowan, whilst the LNP drew further ahead in Capricornia and Flynn, securing an absolute majority of 76 seats for the Turnbull government.

The ALP still leads in Hindmarsh and Herbert, the two remaining undecided seats in the House of Representatives.

In Cowan, the ALP’s Anne Aly claimed victory and will become the first female Muslim to be elected to the House. A batch of votes that had been wrongly counted for the Liberals delivered several hundred votes to Aly. Her 946 vote lead, combined with preference flows means that Cowan can now be taken out of the doubtful list. There are 6,942 votes still to count. The ALP now has a confirmed 67 seats.

The ALP’s lead in Hindmarsh remains at 583 votes. This seat will probably come out of the doubtful list in the next day or two, since the ALP lead seems firm. There are 5,307 votes still to count. The Liberals’ 53.81% advantage in postals is offset by the ALP’s 56.06% advantage in absentees.

In the Queensland seats of Capricornia and Flynn, the LNP extended its leads. Both seats have now been removed from the doubtful list.

In Capricornia, the LNP lifted its weekend lead of 148 votes to 691. There are 3,475 votes to count and it is clear that the LNP will retain the seat. A traditionally Labor electorate, Capricornia was lost by the ALP in 1975 and 1996. In both cases, it was regained at the following election. Michelle Landry becomes the first non-Labor member for Capricornia to win consecutive elections since Henry Pearce, who held it between 1949 and 1961. Pearce is now 98 years old and is one of only two surviving members from the 1949 parliament.

In Flynn, the LNP’s weekend lead of 391 votes has blown out to 933, with 5,166 votes still to count. It is clear that the LNP has won this seat. Whilst the ALP is winning 53.33% of absentee votes, the LNP is winning 64.02% of postals.

The situation in Herbert remains unclear. The ALP remains in the lead by 178 votes, down from the weekend’s 304, with 6,420 to count, including 2,477 postals. The LNP is winning 56.90% of postals, but the ALP is receiving 53.33% of absentees.

The Coalition now has 76 seats, an absolute majority in the House of Representatives. The ALP is on 67 and there are 5 crossbenchers. The ALP could move to 69 if it holds its leads in Herbert and Hindmarsh.

The Melbourne Ports electorate became the subject of attention today. An earlier post discussed the possibility of the Greens overtaking the ALP to come second behind the Liberals. In such a case, ALP preferences would decide the winner.

The caretaker government period has now ended with an exchange of letters between the Prime Minister and the Governor-General.

House of Representatives – Undecided Seats
No. Seat Margin
(Sun)
Margin
(Mon)
Incumbent Party 2PP % Main Opponent 2PP % Swing %
QUEENSLAND
1.
Herbert
302
178
Ewen Jones (LNP)
49.89
Cathy O’Toole (ALP)
50.11
6.28 to ALP
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
2.
Hindmarsh
348
583
Matt Williams (Lib)
49.69
Steve Georganas (ALP)
50.31
2.20 to ALP

*

House of Representatives – Seats No Longer Doubtful
No. Seat Margin
(Sun)
Margin
(Mon)
Incumbent Party 2PP % Main Opponent 2PP % Swing %
QUEENSLAND
1.
Capricornia
148
691
Michelle Landry (LNP)
50.41
Leisa Neaton (ALP)
49.59
0.36 to ALP
2.
Flynn
391
933
Ken O’Dowd (LNP)
50.58
Zac Beers (ALP)
49.42
5.95 to ALP
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
3.
Cowan
487
946
Luke Simpkins (Lib)
49.38
Anne Aly (ALP)
50.62
5.14 to ALP

*

House of Representatives – Decided Seats
Party Seats Total
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY NSW (24): Barton, Blaxland, Chifley, Cunningham, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Fowler, Grayndler, Greenway, Hunter, Kingsford Smith, Lindsay, Macarthur, Macquarie, McMahon, Newcastle, Parramatta, Paterson, Richmond, Shortland, Sydney, Watson, Werriwa, Whitlam.
VIC (18): Ballarat, Batman, Bendigo, Bruce, Calwell, Corio, Gellibrand, Gorton, Holt, Hotham, Isaacs, Jagajaga, Lalor, Maribyrnong, McEwen, Melbourne Ports, Scullin, Wills.
QLD (7): Blair, Griffith, Lilley, Longman, Moreton, Oxley, Rankin.
WA (5): Brand, Burt, Cowan, Fremantle. Perth.
SA (5): Adelaide, Kingston, Makin, Port Adelaide, Wakefield.
TAS (4): Bass, Braddon, Franklin, Lyons.
ACT (2): Canberra, Fenner.
NT (2): Lingiari, Solomon.
67
The COALITION consists of the Liberal Party, Liberal National Party (Qld) and The Nationals. They are shown separately below. The Coalition has 76 seats.
LIBERAL NSW (16): Banks, Bennelong, Berowra, Bradfield, Cook, Farrer, Gilmore, Hughes, Hume, Mackellar, Mitchell, North Sydney, Reid, Robertson, Warringah, Wentworth.
VIC (14): Aston, Casey, Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin, Dunkley, Flinders, Goldstein, Higgins, Kooyong, La Trobe, McMillan, Menzies, Wannon.
WA (11): Canning, Curtin, Durack, Forrest, Hasluck, Moore, O’Connor, Pearce, Stirling, Swan, Tangney.
SA (4): Barker, Boothby, Grey, Sturt.
45
LIBERAL NATIONAL (LNP-QLD) QLD (21): Bonner, Bowman, Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Fadden, Fairfax, Fisher, Flynn, Forde, Groom, Hinkler, Leichhardt, Maranoa, McPherson, Moncrieff, Petrie, Ryan, Wide Bay, Wright
21
NATIONALS NSW (7): Calare, Cowper, Lyne, New England, Page, Parkes, Riverina.
VIC (3): Gippsland, Mallee, Murray.
10
GREENS VIC (1): Melbourne.
1
NICK XENOPHON TEAM (NXT) SA (1): Mayo.
1
INDEPENDENT VIC (1): Indi.
QLD (1): Kennedy.
TAS (1): Denison.
3
IN DOUBT QLD (1): Herbert.
SA (1):Hindmarsh.
2
TOTAL
150



Source: Australian Electoral Commission

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