The 120 Seats That Swung To The ALP In The Federal Election

On current figures, the national swing to the ALP in the federal election is 3.15%.

There were swings to the ALP in every State and Territory. However, the Coalition currently leads the national two-party-preferred vote with 50.34% to the ALP’s 49.66%.

The ALP secured swings to it in 120 (80%) of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.

In 59 seats, the ALP received swings of between 0.03% and 3.15%. From this group, it looks likely to win just one seat, Hindmarsh, where the swing is currently 2.20.

In another 61 seats, the pro-ALP swings were all above the national average, ranging from 3.21% to 13.45%. From these, the ALP picked up 14 seats from the Liberals, including 3 that were notionally Labor following a redistribution.

In the 30 seats that recorded the largest pro-Labor swings (from 5.26% to 13.45%), the ALP won 9 seats (including two already notionally Labor) and stacked up large increases in 17 seats it already held, including 8 in NSW.

The seats in the table below are ordered by the size of the swing to the ALP, starting with the largest.

NOTE 1: These figures are correct as of 8pm, Thursday, July 14, 2016. The figures are likely to change slightly as results are finalised. This list will be updated when final results are known.

NOTE 2: Swings can only be compared using the two-party-preferred (2PP) figures. Australia’s system of compulsory preferential voting ensures that every vote must ultimately choose between the final two candidates. Even in those seats where the final two candidates are not ALP v. Coalition, the Australian Electoral Commission calculates it anyway. There are 14 such seats in this election.

NOTE 3: The two-party swing is calculated from general election to general election. By-election results since the 2013 election are disregarded.

2016 Federal Election – Seats Swinging To the ALP
No. Seat State Incumbent Party 2013
Winner’s
2PP %
Swing to
ALP %
2016
Winner’s
2PP %
Change
THE TOP 7 – SWINGS ABOVE 8%
1.
Burt
WA
new seat Lib
(notional Lib)
56.09
13.45
57.36
ALP GAIN
Matt Keogh
2.
Macarthur
NSW
Russell Matheson Lib
53.30
11.79
58.40
ALP GAIN
Mike Freelander
3.
Paterson
NSW
Bob Baldwin (ret)
Karen Howard
Lib
(notional ALP)
50.27
10.68
60.95
ALP GAIN
Meryl Swanson
4.
Bass
TAS
Andrew Nikolic Lib
54.04
10.11
56.07
ALP GAIN
Ross Hart
5.
Watson
NSW
Tony Burke ALP
58.82
9.09
67.91
6.
Blaxland
NSW
Jason Clare ALP
61.24
9.03
70.27
7.
Chifley
NSW
Ed Husic ALP
60.93
8.44
69.37
7% SWINGS
8.
Brand
WA
Gary Gray (ret)
Madeleine King
ALP
53.71
7.95
61.66
9.
Longman
QLD
Wyatt Roy LNP
56.92
7.78
50.86
ALP GAIN
Susan Lamb
10.
McEwen
VIC
Rob Mitchell ALP
50.15
7.77
57.92
11.
Lingiari
NT
Warren Snowdon ALP
50.88
7.59
58.47
12.
Wakefield
SA
Nick Champion ALP
53.40
7.50
60.90
13.
McMahon
NSW
Chris Bowen ALP
54.63
7.41
62.04
14.
Solomon
NT
Natasha Griggs CLP
51.40
7.39
55.99
ALP GAIN
Luke Gosling
15.
Whitlam
NSW
Stephen Jones ALP
56.91
7.34
64.25
16.
Hunter
NSW
Joel Fitzgibbon ALP
55.68
7.06
62.74
17.
Kingston
SA
Amanda Rishworth ALP
59.70
7.00
66.70
6% SWINGS
18.
Port Adelaide
SA
Mark Butler ALP
64.02
6.85
70.87
19.
Rankin
QLD
Jim Chalmers ALP
54.78
6.47
61.25
20.
Macquarie
NSW
Louise Markus Lib
54.48
7.03
52.55
ALP GAIN
Susan Templeman
21.
Kingsford Smith
NSW
Matt Thistlethwaite ALP
52.74
6.25
58.99
22.
Parramatta
NSW
Julie Owens ALP
51.32
6.23
57.55
23.
Herbert
QLD
Ewen Jones LNP
56.17
6.14
50.03
5% SWINGS
24.
Pearce
WA
Christian Porter Lib
59.31
5.96
53.35
25.
Eden-Monaro
NSW
Peter Hendy Lib
52.91
5.86
52.95
ALP GAIN
Mike Kelly
26.
Franklin
TAS
Julie Collins ALP
55.09
5.56
60.65
27.
Flynn
QLD
Ken O’Dowd LNP
56.53
5.53
51.00
28.
McMillan
VIC
Russell Broadbent Lib
61.83
5.49
56.34
29.
Oxley
QLD
Bernie Ripoll ALP
53.77
5.29
59.06
30.
Cowan
WA
Luke Simpkins Lib
54.52
5.26
50.74
ALP GAIN
Anne Aly
31.
Maranoa
QLD
Bruce Scott (ret)
David Littleproud
LNP
72.28
5.13
67.15
32.
Dickson
QLD
Peter Dutton LNP
56.72
5.11
51.61
33.
Holt
VIC
Anthony Byrne ALP
59.09
5.06
64.15
34.
Fowler
NSW
Chris Hayes ALP
62.89
5.04
67.93
35.
Parkes
NSW
Mark Coulton NAT
69.97
5.04
64.93
4% SWINGS
36.
Braddon
TAS
Brett Whiteley Lib
52.56
4.87
52.31
ALP GAIN
Justine Keay
37.
Wide Bay
QLD
Warren Truss (ret)
Llew O’Brien
LNP
63.16
4.85
58.31
38.
Dobell
NSW
Karen McNamara Lib
(notional ALP)
49.82
4.73
54.91
ALP GAIN
Emma McBride
39.
Canning
WA
Andrew Hastie Lib
61.35
4.74
56.61
40.
Newcastle
NSW
Sharon Claydon ALP
59.40
4.72
64.12
41.
Makin
SA
Tony Zappia ALP
55.06
4.55
59.61
42.
Dawson
QLD
George Christensen LNP
57.58
4.26
53.32
43.
Dunkley
VIC
Bruce Billson (ret)
Chris Crewther
Lib
55.57
4.09
51.48
44.
Hasluck
WA
Ken Wyatt Lib
56.02
4.08
51.94
45.
Durack
WA
Melissa Price Lib
65.04
4.05
60.99
46.
Calwell
VIC
Maria Vamvakinou ALP
63.86
4.02
67.88
3% SWINGS
47.
Lindsay
NSW
Fiona Scott Lib
52.99
3.98
50.99
ALP GAIN
Emma Husar
48.
Flinders
VIC
Greg Hunt Lib
61.81
3.96
57.85
49.
Barton
NSW
Nickolas Varvaris Lib
(notional ALP)
45.61
3.95
58.34
ALP GAIN
Linda Burney
50.
Sturt
SA
Christopher Pyne Lib
60.08
3.93
56.15
51.
Menzies
VIC
Kevin Andrews Lib
64.45
3.68
60.77
52.
Blair
QLD
Shayne Neumann ALP
55.26
3.83
59.09
53.
Forde
QLD
Bert van Manen LNP
54.38
3.79
50.59
54.
Gorton
VIC
Brendan O’Connor ALP
66.12
3.78
69.90
55.
Warringah
NSW
Tony Abbott Lib
65.32
3.75
61.57
56.
Greenway
NSW
Michelle Rowland ALP
52.98
3.71
56.69
57.
Swan
WA
Steve Irons Lib
57.34
3.68
53.66
58.
Lyons
TAS
Eric Hutchinson Lib
51.22
3.55
52.33
ALP GAIN
Brian Mitchell
59.
Hume
NSW
Angus Taylor Lib
63.58
3.31
60.27
60.
Boothby
SA
Andrew Southcott (ret)
Nicolle Flint
Lib
57.12
3.27
53.85
61.
Scullin
VIC
Andrew Giles ALP
64.35
3.21
67.56
62.
Fadden
QLD
Stuart Robert LNP
64.36
3.15
61.21
63.
Gilmore
NSW
Ann Sudmalis Lib
53.78
3.09
50.69
64.
Moncrieff
QLD
Steven Ciobo LNP
67.95
3.00
64.95
2% SWINGS
65.
Mitchell
NSW
Alex Hawke Lib
71.39
2.98
68.41
66.
Lilley
QLD
Wayne Swan ALP
51.32
2.91
54.23
67.
Calare
NSW
John Cobb (ret)
Andrew Gee
Nat
64.97
2.83
62.14
68.
Mackellar
NSW
Bronwyn Bishop (des)
Jason Falinski
Lib
68.84
2.77
66.07
69.
Riverina
NSW
Michael McCormack Nats
68.99
2.76
66.23
70.
La Trobe
VIC
Jason Wood Lib
54.01
2.63
51.38
71.
Shortland
NSW
Pat Conroy ALP
57.40
2.59
59.99
72.
Wright
QLD
Scott Buchholz LNP
61.84
2.58
59.26
73.
Bendigo
VIC
Lisa Chesters ALP
51.26
2.53
53.79
74.
Stirling
WA
Michael Keenan Lib
58.97
2.36
56.61
75.
Ballarat
VIC
Catherine King ALP
54.89
2.30
57.19
76.
Bruce
VIC
Alan Griffin (ret)
Julian Hill
ALP
51.80
2.28
54.08
77.
Fremantle
WA
Melissa Parke (ret)
Josh Wilson
ALP
55.40
2.26
57.66
78.
Berowra
NSW
Philip Ruddock (ret)
Julian Leeser
Lib
69.05
2.25
66.80
79.
Hughes
NSW
Craig Kelly Lib
61.81
2.24
59.57
80.
Mallee
VIC
Andrew Broad Nats
73.66
2.21
71.45
81.
Hindmarsh
SA
Matt Williams Lib
51.89
2.20
50.31
ALP GAIN
Steve Georganas
82.
Moreton
QLD
Graham Perrett ALP
51.55
2.11
53.66
83.
Gellibrand
VIC
Tim Watts ALP
66.53
2.02
68.55
84.
Sydney
NSW
Tanya Plibersek ALP
62.87
2.01
64.88
85.
Richmond
NSW
Justine Elliot ALP
51.58
2.00
53.58
1% SWINGS
86.
Corio
VIC
Richard Marles ALP
57.75
1.98
59.73
87.
Isaacs
VIC
Mark Dreyfus ALP
53.86
1.92
55.78
88.
Cunningham
NSW
Sharon Bird ALP
61.29
1.90
63.19
89.
North Sydney
NSW
Trent Zimmerman Lib
65.71
1.89
63.82
90.
Robertson
NSW
Lucy Wicks Lib
53.09
1.88
51.21
91.
Lyne
NSW
David Gillespie Nat
63.52
1.77
61.75
92.
Lalor
VIC
Joanne Ryan ALP
62.16
1.76
63.92
93.
Bowman
QLD
Andrew Laming LNP
58.86
1.76
57.10
94.
Tangney
WA
Dennis Jensen (des)
Ben Morton
Lib
63.02
1.73
61.29
95.
Werriwa
NSW
Laurie Ferguson (ret)
Anne Stanley
ALP
56.53
1.66
58.19
96.
Leichhardt
QLD
Warren Entsch LNP
55.68
1.57
54.11
97.
Moore
WA
Ian Goodenough Lib
62.44
1.50
60.94
98.
Groom
QLD
Ian Macfarlane (ret)
John McVeigh
LNP
66.47
1.48
64.99
99.
Jagajaga
VIC
Jenny Macklin ALP
53.13
1.48
54.61
100.
Fenner
ACT
Andrew Leigh ALP
62.49
1.44
63.93
101.
McPherson
QLD
Karen Andrews LNP
63.00
1.41
61.59
102.
Forrest
WA
Nola Marino Lib
63.81
1.37
62.44
103.
Banks
NSW
David Coleman Lib
52.80
1.26
51.54
104.
Farrer
NSW
Sussan Ley Lib
71.71
1.11
70.60
105.
Casey
VIC
Tony Smith Lib
57.17
1.06
56.11
106.
Wannon
VIC
Dan Tehan Lib
60.07
1.04
59.03
107.
Perth
WA
Alannah MacTiernan (ret)
Tim Hammond
ALP
52.18
1.01
53.19
108.
Wentworth
NSW
Malcolm Turnbull Lib
68.92
1.01
67.91
0-1% SWINGS
109.
Fairfax
QLD
Ted O’Brien LNP
61.68
0.83
60.85
110.
Maribyrnong
VIC
Bill Shorten ALP
61.39
0.77
62.16
111.
Corangamite
VIC
Sarah Henderson Lib
53.94
0.76
53.18
112.
Adelaide
SA
Kate Ellis ALP
53.95
0.66
54.61
113.
Hinkler
QLD
Keith Pitt LNP
59.04
0.58
58.46
114.
O’Connor
WA
Rick Wilson Lib
65.42
0.50
64.92
115.
Bonner
QLD
Ross Vasta LNP
53.69
0.48
53.21
116.
Page
NSW
Kevin Hogan Nats
53.10
0.35
52.75
117.
Fisher
QLD
Mal Brough (ret)
Andrew Wallace
LNP
59.75
0.30
59.45
118.
Hotham
VIC
Clare O’Neil ALP
57.27
0.21
57.48
119.
Capricornia
QLD
Michelle Landry LNP
50.77
0.15
50.62
120.
Canberra
ACT
Gai Brodtmann ALP
57.51
0.03
57.54



LEGEND:
Lib = Liberal Party
Nats = The Nationals
LNP = Liberal National Party of Queensland
CLP = Country Liberal Party – Northern Territory
des = deselected, lost preselection
ret = retired

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