Seats That Swung To The Coalition In The 2016 Federal Election

As counting proceeds in the 2016 House of Representatives elections, it appears that only 16 seats resisted the nationwide swing to the ALP.

Fifteen seats held by the Liberal Party and 1 seat held by The Nationals recorded swings away from the ALP. Thirteen of these seats were already held by the Coalition.

The swings range from 0.09% in Cook to 3.04% in Deakin.

The Liberal Party won just one seat from the ALP, the Melbourne electorate of Chisholm, with a swing of 2.91%.

The national two-party-preferred swing against the Coalition currently stands at 3.16%. Every State and Territory swung to the ALP, ranging from 0.72% in the Australian Capital Territory to 8.90% in South Australia.

The Coalition won the State two-party-preferred contest in NSW (50.42%), Queensland (53.95%) and Western Australia (54.54%).

Nationally, the ALP recorded a swing to it in 120 seats. In the remaining 14 seats, the two-party votes were not Coalition v Labor, but involved the Greens, Nick Xenophon Team and independents.

The list of seats in the table below is ordered by the size of the swing to the Coalition.

NOTE 1: These figures are correct as of 12pm, Thursday, July 14, 2016. The figures are likely to change slightly as results are finalised. This list will be updated when final results are known.

NOTE 2: Swings can only be compared using the two-party-preferred (2PP) figures. Australia’s system of compulsory preferential voting ensures that every vote must ultimately choose between the final two candidates. Even in those seats where the final two candidates are not ALP v. Coalition, the Australian Electoral Commission calculates it anyway. There are 14 such seats in this election.

NOTE 3: The two-party swing is calculated from general election to general election. In the case of Griffith, the ALP improved its vote at this year’s election, compared to the 2014 by-election, but is still behind where it was in 2013.

NOTE 4: The seat of Murray will probably be added to this list when results are finalised. The Liberal Party lost Murray to the Nationals and the ALP’s primary vote fell by 6.05%. The Coalition v ALP two-party-preferred vote will be calculated by the AEC when counting is finalised.

2016 Federal Election – Seats Swinging To the Coalition
No. Seat State Previous Member Party 2013
2PP %
Swing % 2016
2PP %
Outcome
1.
Deakin
Vic
Michael Sukkar Liberal
53.18
3.04
56.22
Retained by Liberal
2.
Chisholm
Vic
Anna Burke (ret)
Stefanie Perri
ALP
51.60
2.91
51.31
WON BY LIBERAL
Julia Banks
3.
Gippsland
Vic
Darren Chester Nationals
65.84
2.76
68.60
Retained by Nationals
4.
Curtin
WA
Julie Bishop Liberal
68.22
2.71
70.93
Retained by Liberal
5.
Kooyong
Vic
Josh Frydenberg Liberal
61.06
2.52
63.58
Retained by Liberal
6.
Bennelong
NSW
John Alexander Liberal
57.77
2.21
59.98
Retained by Liberal
7.
Melbourne Ports
Vic
Michael Danby ALP
53.56
1.90
51.66
Retained by ALP
8.
Brisbane
Qld
Teresa Gambaro (ret)
Trevor Evans
LNP
54.28
1.75
56.03
Retained by LNP
9.
Reid
NSW
Craig Laundy Liberal
53.33
1.38
54.71
Retained by Liberal
10.
Griffith
Qld
Terri Butler ALP
53.10
1.35
51.75
Retained by ALP
11.
Petrie
Qld
Luke Howarth LNP
50.53
1.14
51.67
Retained by LNP
12.
Ryan
Qld
Jane Prentice LNP
58.54
1.02
59.56
Retained by LNP
13.
Goldstein
Vic
Andrew Robb (ret)
Tim Wilson
Liberal
61.03
1.00
62.03
Retained by Liberal
14.
Bradfield
NSW
Paul Fletcher Liberal
70.94
0.48
71.42
Retained by Liberal
15.
Aston
Vic
Alan Tudge Liberal
58.20
0.47
58.67
Retained by Liberal
16.
Cook
NSW
Scott Morrison Liberal
65.71
0.09
65.80
Retained by Liberal


Legend:
Liberal = Liberal Party of Australia
Nationals = The Nationals
LNP = Liberal National Party of Queensland
ALP = Australian Labor Party

Source: Australian Electoral Commission

Print Friendly, PDF & Email