2016 Federal Election: The Oncers Who Have Become Twicers

Most of the first-term members of the previous parliament have been returned to the new 45th parliament.

Of 42 members elected for the first time at the 2013 federal election, 31 (73.8%) were re-elected on July 2, 2016.

Eight members (19%), all Liberals, were defeated at the election.

The Fate of 2013 First Term House Members
Party No. of First Termers Re-Elected Defeated Retired
Liberal Party
23
14
8
1
The Nationals
6
6
Australian Labor Party
11
10
1
Palmer United Party
1
1
Independents
1
1
TOTALS
42
31
(74%)
8
(19%)
3
(7%)



Another three members – Mal Brough (LNP), Clive Palmer (PUP) and Alannah MacTiernan (ALP) – chose to retire or not contest.

Just three of the Liberal members elected in 2013 increased their majorities this year: Luke Howarth (Petrie), Craig Laundy (Reid) and Michael Sukkar (Deakin). All represent marginal seats taken from Labor in 2013. Their success has been vital to the narrow return of the Turnbull government.

The 6 first-term Nationals members all suffered swings against them but survived. Michelle Landry’s narrow victory in Capricornia was also crucial to the survival of the government. Whilst experiencing a swing against him, Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce wasn’t seriously troubled by Tony Windsor.

The first-term ALP members mainly represent safe seats. Only Lisa Chesters (Bendigo) and David Feeney (Batman) could be said to have highly marginal seats. Whilst Chesters secured a 2.48% swing towards her, Feeney’s two-party vote fell by 9.58% against the Greens, reducing his margin to 1.03%.

The table below shows each first-term MP, their seat, current status and their two-party-votes and swing from 2013 and 2016. Because there have been redistributions in NSW and Western Australia, 2013 2PP figures are notional. In Barker, New England and Fairfax, the contest involved different candidates and parties from last time, so the figures I have used are indicative only. The AEC will provide a Labor-Coalition two-party count in due course.

2016 Federal Election – Fate of First-Term Members
No. Name Seat State Status 2013 2PP% 2016 2PP% Swing
LIBERAL PARTY
1.
Mal Brough Fisher
Qld
Retired
59.75
59.06
-0.69
2.
David Coleman Banks
NSW
Re-elected
52.80
51.44
-1.36
3.
Ian Goodenough Moore
WA
Re-elected
62.44
61.02
-1.42
4.
Sarah Henderson Corangamite
Vic
Re-elected
53.94
53.13
-0.81
5.
Peter Hendy Eden-Monaro
NSW
DEFEATED
52.91
47.07
-5.84
6.
Luke Howarth Petrie
Qld
Re-elected
50.53
51.65
+1.12
7.
Eric Hutchinson Lyons
Tas
DEFEATED
51.22
47.69
-3.53
8.
Craig Laundy Reid
NSW
Re-elected
53.33
54.69
+1.36
9.
Karen McNamara Dobell
NSW
DEFEATED
49.82
45.19
-4.63
10.
Andrew Nikolic Bass
Tas
DEFEATED
54.04
43.91
-10.13
11.
Tony Pasin Barker
SA
Re-elected
66.55
ALP
54.74
NXT
-11.81
12.
Christian Porter Pearce
WA
Re-elected
59.31
53.63
-5.68
13.
Melissa Price Durack
WA
Re-elected
65.04
61.06
-3.98
14.
Fiona Scott Lindsay
NSW
DEFEATED
52.99
48.89
-4.10
15.
Ann Sudmalis Gilmore
NSW
Re-elected
53.78
50.73
-3.05
16.
Michael Sukkar Deakin
Vic
Re-elected
53.18
55.68
+2.50
17.
Angus Taylor Hume
NSW
Re-elected
63.58
60.18
-3.40
18.
Nickolas Varvaris Barton
NSW
DEFEATED
45.61
41.70
-3.91
19.
Brett Whiteley Braddon
Tas
DEFEATED
52.56
47.80
-4.76
20.
Lucy Wicks Robertson
NSW
Re-elected
53.09
51.14
-1.95
21.
Matt Williams Hindmarsh
SA
DEFEATED
51.89
49.42
-2.47
22.
Rick Wilson O’Connor
WA
Re-elected
65.42
65.04
-0.38
23.
Jason Wood La Trobe
Vic
Re-elected
54.01
51.46
-2.55
THE NATIONALS
1.
Andrew Broad Mallee
Vic
Re-elected
73.66
71.32
-2.34
2.
David Gillespie Lyne
NSW
Re-elected
63.52
61.63
-1.89
3.
Kevin Hogan Page
NSW
Re-elected
53.10
52.30
-0.80
4.
Barnaby Joyce New England
NSW
Re-elected
64.46
58.52
-5.94
5.
Michelle Landry Capricornia
Qld
Re-elected
50.77
50.63
-0.14
6.
Keith Pitt Hinkler
Qld
Re-elected
59.04
58.42
-0.62
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY
1.
Jim Chalmers Rankin
Qld
Re-elected
54.78
61.30
+6.52
2.
Lisa Chesters Bendigo
Vic
Re-elected
51.26
53.74
+2.48
3.
Sharon Claydon Newcastle
NSW
Re-elected
59.40
63.84
+4.44
4.
Pat Conroy Shortland
NSW
Re-elected
57.40
59.94
+2.54
5.
David Feeney Batman
Vic
Re-elected
60.61
51.03
-9.58
6.
Andrew Giles Scullin
Vic
Re-elected
64.35
67.28
+2.93
7.
Alannah MacTiernan Perth
WA
Retired
52.18
53.33
+1.15
8.
Clare O’Neil Hotham
Vic
Re-elected
57.27
57.48
+0.21
9.
Joanne Ryan Lalor
Vic
Re-elected
62.16
63.44
+1.28
10.
Matt Thistlethwaite Kingsford Smith
NSW
Re-elected
52.74
58.57
+5.83
11.
Tim Watts Gellibrand
Vic
Re-elected
66.53
68.23
+1.70
INDEPENDENT
1.
Cathy McGowan Indi
Vic
Re-elected
50.25
54.83
+4.58
PALMER UNITED PARTY
1.
Clive Palmer Fairfax
Qld
Retired
PUP 50.03
LNP 60.89


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