Morrison Warns Of Economic Complacency And Calls On ALP To Support Budget Repair Measures

The Treasurer, Scott Morrison, says there is a “terrible risk” that Australia’s economic success has sown the seeds of complacency.

Morrison

In a speech to Bloomberg, in Sydney, Morrison said there was a new divide in Australia between “the taxed and the taxed nots”. He warned of the complacency of a generation that “has grown up not ever having known a recession” and an attitude where “deficits are dismissed as temporary, cyclical and self-correcting”.

Morrison said there were three things the government must do over the next three years.

Firstly, it must “get debt under control by returning the budget to balance”.

Secondly, it must “support and implement policies that help us to increase what we can earn as a nation..in a low growth, low interest rate, low inflation, low wages growth, volatile world”.

Thirdly, Morrison warned against a return to “renewed protectionism” and an attitude that “trade, investment and positive immigration policies are increasingly seen as the problem and not the solution”. Whilst many Australians “feel the system no longer works for them”, Morrison cautioned against a cynical and populist political endorsement of this sentiment. “We cannot pull the doona over our head,” he said. “Rather than secure our economic future, it will cost it.” [Read more…]


2016 House Of Representatives Primary Votes: State-By-State Breakdown

Despite a declining vote, the Coalition and the ALP maintained their dominance of the House of Representatives in the July 2 double dissolution.

The Coalition (Liberal, Liberal National, Nationals, Country Liberals) and ALP polled 76.77% of the nationwide primary vote, down 2.16% from 78.93% in 2013. They secured 145 (96.7%) of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.

The Big Two + Greens

The Greens polled 10.23% of the primary vote, up 1.58% from their 2013 tally of 8.65%. Adam Bandt consolidated his hold on Melbourne but the party failed to win any more lower house seats.

The Coalition, ALP and Greens combined polled 87% of first preference (primary) votes nationally, marginally down from 87.58% in 2013. They won 146 (97.3%) of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.

The Greens maintained their influence with the lion’s share of preferences. These preferences were vital to the ALP holding 8 of its seats and winning another 7 from the Liberal Party.

A Big Field of Micro Parties With Micro Votes

There were 42 parties that contested at least one seat each. They polled a total of 10.17%. Only the Nick Xenophon Team (Mayo) and Katter’s Australian Party (Kennedy) won seats.

The majority of micro parties (32 of 42) contested 10 or fewer seats. Twenty-four of these contested 5 or fewer seats. Whilst 10 parties ran more than 10 candidates each, they all nominated candidates for fewer than half the seats in the House. Family First ran in 65 seats, the Christian Democratic Party in 55 and the Animal Justice Party in 41.

The votes for micro parties were derisory, with 38 of the 42 failing to make it to 1% nationally. Moreover, 27 polled less than 0.1% nationally. The other 11 polled no higher than 0.7%. [Read more…]


The New Senate: The Defeated, The Retired, The New And The Returning

There will be 14 new faces in the new Senate when it meets for the first time on August 30.

This represents 18.42% of the Senate’s 76 members. Each state has 12 senators, whilst the territories have 2 each, who serve terms concurrent with the House of Representatives. The double dissolution meant that all 76 positions were up for election on July 2.

The fourteen new senators include two (Louise Pratt and Don Farrell) who were Labor senators defeated in 2013.

Ten of the fourteen departed senators were defeated in the election, whilst four retired. [Read more…]


MPs Who Won Their Seats On First Preferences In The 2016 Federal Election

Just under a third of the seats in the House of Representatives were decided on first preference (primary) votes, at the 2016 Federal Election.

By definition, these seats are the most secure for the various parties, since preference distribution cannot change the result. The winner has already secured an absolute majority of at least 50%+1 over every other candidate.

Of the 150 electorates, 48 (32%) were won on the primary vote. There were 53 such seats (35%) at the 2013 election. In 2004, 89 seats (59%) were decided on first preferences.

The Liberal Party was most successful, winning 27 of the 48 seats (56%), including 12 in NSW. The Liberal wins covered 4 states.

The Nationals won 5 seats (10%), including 3 in NSW, giving the coalition 32, or 67% of the total.

The ALP won 16 (33%) of the seats, including 10 in NSW. It won 6 seats in Victoria, but failed to win any more in other states or territories.

Seats Won On Primary Votes – 2016 Federal Election
Party NSW Vic Qld WA Total
Liberal Party
12
8
4
3
27
The Nationals
3
2
5
Australian Labor Party
10
6
16
TOTAL
25
16
4
3
48

 
NSW was the only state to have a majority of seats (25 of 47, or 53%) won on primary votes. In Victoria, 16 seats out of 37 (43%) were won on first preferences. Western Australia recorded 19% and Queensland 13%.

The two smallest states, South Australia and Tasmania, had no seats decided on primaries. The four seats in the two territories all went to preferences. [Read more…]


Final Two-Party Figures: Coalition Won 2016 Election With 50.37%; Swing To Labor Of 3.12%

Final figures published by the Australian Electoral Commission show that the Coalition won the 2016 federal election with 50.37% of the two-party-preferred vote.

The Liberal-Nationals coalition polled 50.37% of the national two-party-preferred vote. The ALP received 49.63%. There was a 3.12% swing to the ALP nationally, a near reversal of the 3.61% swing to the Coalition in the 2013 election.

Every state and territory recorded a swing against the Coalition. The largest swing was 7.41% in the Northern Territory. The smallest was 1.22% in the Australian Capital Territory.

As in 2013, the Coalition did best in Western Australia, where it polled 54.66%, Queensland, where it polled 54.10%, and New South Wales, where it polled 50.53%.

The Coalition had a net loss of 14 seats, to finish with 76. It lost 7 seats in NSW, 3 in Tasmania, 2 each in Queensland and South Australia, and 1 each in Western Australia and the Northern Territory. It gained one seat in Victoria and retook Fairfax in Queensland.

The ALP received a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three states and both territories: Tasmania (57.36%), South Australia (52.27%) and Victoria (51.79%). As in 2013, its highest vote was in the ACT (61.13%), whilst it polled 57.06% in the NT. [Read more…]


Long Tan Commemoration: Cosgrove And Turnbull Pay Tribute On 50th Anniversary Of Vietnam Battle

The Governor-General and the Prime Minister have each spoken at the 50th anniversary commemoration service of Long Tan.

The service was held in Canberra this morning. It commemorated the 50th anniversary of the battle at Long Tan on August 18, 1966. Eighteen Australian soldiers from the 1st Australian Task Froce were killed and twenty-four wounded in the conflict. It is estimated that the Viet Cong lost at least 245 soldiers.

Cosgrove

The battle took place near a rubber plantation. There were 105 soldiers involved, including a contingent from New Zealand.

In his speech, the Governor-General, who served in Vietnam, drew attention to the treatment meted out to Vietnam veterans at the time and since. He lamented that even veterans organisations did not respond well to the service of Australian soldiers in the controversial war. [Read more…]


Turnbull’s Economic Policy Speech To CEDA Disrupted By Refugee Protesters

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s speech to CEDA today was interrupted by a group of refugee protesters.

Turnbull

Turnbull was addressing the Committee for Economic Development of Australia, in Melbourne, on economic policy. The female protesters gained entry to the event by posing as members of the press. About ten minutes into the speech, they began yelling and waving banners that called for the closing of offshore refugee detention camps. One woman stood on the stage near Turnbull with a poster that read: “FFS Close the Bloody Camps”. The protesters were quickly dispersed and evicted from the event.

Turnbull’s speech contained little new. It centred on the government’s commitment to Budget repair and its election campaign themes of innovation and science, investment in the defence industry, trade agreements and taxation.

The Prime Minister said: “In the upcoming sittings, we will introduce an Omnibus Bill that puts together all the Government’s savings measures that we understand from the election campaign the Labor Party is prepared to support.” [Read more…]