http://australianpolitics.com Resources, News & Commentary from Malcolm Farnsworth Tue, 07 Feb 2012 03:23:43 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= Resources, News & Commentary from Malcolm Farnsworth AustralianPolitics.com no Resources, News & Commentary from Malcolm Farnsworth http://australianpolitics.com/wp-content/plugins/powerpress/rss_default.jpg http://australianpolitics.com/category/federal-elections/electoral-behaviour http://australianpolitics.com/2010/12/02/the-march-of-political-time.html http://australianpolitics.com/2010/12/02/the-march-of-political-time.html#comments Thu, 02 Dec 2010 11:40:37 +0000 Malcolm Farnsworth http://australianpolitics.com/?p=3212 http://australianpolitics.com/2010/12/02/the-march-of-political-time.html/feed 0 http://australianpolitics.com/2010/11/10/brian-loughnane-national-press-club-address.html http://australianpolitics.com/2010/11/10/brian-loughnane-national-press-club-address.html#comments Wed, 10 Nov 2010 03:21:27 +0000 Malcolm Farnsworth http://australianpolitics.com/?p=1518 http://australianpolitics.com/2010/11/10/brian-loughnane-national-press-club-address.html/feed 0 Brian Loughnane,Julia Gillard,Kevin Rudd,Tony Abbott The Labor government's electoral decline began in 2008 and continued under Julia Gillard, according the Liberal Party's Federal Director, Brian Loughnan. - Addressing the National Press Club in Canberra, Loughnane claimed that despite the difficulty o... The Labor government's electoral decline began in 2008 and continued under Julia Gillard, according the Liberal Party's Federal Director, Brian Loughnan. Addressing the National Press Club in Canberra, Loughnane claimed that despite the difficulty of unseating a first-term government with all the advantages of incumbency, Tony Abbott's "decisive leadership" made the party competitive throughout the election. Loughnane disputed the argument put yesterday by the ALP's National Secretary, Karl Bitar, that it was leaks per se that had a catastrophic effect on the government's campaign. Rather, the leaks "focussed voters' attention on the fact Julia Gillard was not the politician Labor spin doctors wanted Australians to think she was". Loughnane said his party's polling showed only 49% of voters had decided how to vote before the election campaign began, compared to 68% in 2007. He said post-election research showed Liberal members and candidates "added to the Party's vote across Australia while Labor's candidates were neutral or a negative influence on their vote". Loughnane said the Liberal Party won the election campaign but "despite the strong campaign the historic task of winning after just one term was ultimately insurmountable". Click the PLAY button to listen to Brian Loughnane's Address to the National Press Club: PLAY This is the transcript of Brian Loughnane's National Press Club Address. Mr President, Ladies and Gentlemen: I am grateful to the National Press Club for the opportunity to discuss one of the most remarkable election campaigns in Australian history. On the 21st of August, for the first time since 1931, a Government was denied a majority after its first term. The reasons for this result are complex and I would like to take the opportunity today to set out in some detail, aided by research the Party has done since the election, the factors which influenced the result. The campaign was an important influence on the result. But it was far from the only influence. To properly understand what happened on the 21st August we must begin with the community expectations that Labor itself created in 2007. Despite significant hesitations, the community gave Labor a mandate in 2007 to implement what Australians considered significant promises to help make their lives better. However doubts about Labor’s commitment to deliver on their promises quickly began to appear. We first saw those hesitations emerge in our research prior to Labor’s first Budget in 2008. Understandably however, people found reasons to put off making a judgment believing the Budget would be the moment Labor would start to deliver on its promises. You may recall the Prime Minister and Treasurer at the time raising expectations with their talk of tough decisions. The 2008 Budget was a failure for Labor and marked the beginning of its electoral decline. Australian’s were underwhelmed by the Budget and by the lack of any significant action on the issues Labor had sought and been given a mandate. The failure of the Budget was quickly compounded by Labor’s ambivalence towards rising petrol and grocery prices and manifested itself in the result of the Gippsland by-election. Brendan Nelson’s reply to the Budget in May 2008 captured the mood of ordinary Australians and was the beginning of the Coalition’s re-emergence as a viable alternative after the 2007 election. Brendan Nelson deserves great credit for instinctively understanding and clearly articulating both the expectations of Labor and the disappointment widely felt with the Government across the community. By mid 2008 our research was showing that while support for Mr Rudd was apparently high, behind these top-line numbers were very deep frustrations. Labor appeared to ordinary Australians to be ignoring their legitimate concerns and obsessed with their own priorities and interests. AustralianPolitics.com no http://australianpolitics.com/2010/11/09/karl-bitar-national-press-club-address.html http://australianpolitics.com/2010/11/09/karl-bitar-national-press-club-address.html#comments Tue, 09 Nov 2010 04:14:57 +0000 Malcolm Farnsworth http://australianpolitics.com/?p=1505 http://australianpolitics.com/2010/11/09/karl-bitar-national-press-club-address.html/feed 1 Julia Gillard,Karl Bitar,leaks,Mark Latham,Tony Abbott Leaks and Mark Latham were primarily responsible for the ALP's near-miss in the 2010 election, according to the ALP National Secretary, Karl Bitar. - Addressing the National Press Club in Canberra, Bitar said a belief that Labor would win the election, Leaks and Mark Latham were primarily responsible for the ALP's near-miss in the 2010 election, according to the ALP National Secretary, Karl Bitar. Addressing the National Press Club in Canberra, Bitar said a belief that Labor would win the election, combined with disillusionment about the government's performance, also contributed to the ALP's campaign problems. The government did not receive credit from the electorate for its handling of the global financial crisis, Bitar said. Bitar said polling showed the ALP would lose 22 seats in Queensland and NSW alone, following the leaks and Mark Latham's intervention in the early part of the campaign. The government entered the election campaign "with a few political problems," Bitar said, including the replacement of an incumbent prime minister. Bitar said the Liberals succeeded in making Tony Abbott a "small target" and the election became "a referendum on the government's performance and disunity". Bitar claimed that many voters who defected to the Greens in protest will return to the ALP "if Labor demonstrates good government". Click the PLAY button to listen to Karl Bitar's speech and responses to questions at the National Press Club: PLAY This is the text of Karl Bitar's Address to the National Press Club: INTRODUCTION My thanks to you Ken and to the National Press Club for the invitation to join you today. I’m here today to contribute to the election campaign that never ends……. 3 weeks to get a result….. and weeks and months of analysis, reviews, interviews, speeches and now even book launches. Today I’d like to first provide an insider’s overview of the campaign based on my own post campaign analysis, and second, to constructively look at some of the challenges facing Labor now and into the future. THE CAMPAIGN Expectation that Labor would win As with all elections, many factors, both positive and negative play a part in determining the result, but let me start with one of the biggest factors in this election, and that was the overwhelming expectation that Labor would win. This expectation existed for our entire first term, through the campaign and right up until Election Day. Unfortunately this expectation, especially during the 35 days, by most politicians, media, party supporters and the electorate, affected the campaign reporting, it affected the actual result and it affected the post election commentary and analysis. Nearly every Party person, friend and journalist I spoke to during the 35 days expected us to win. Every single bookmaker had Labor as clear favourites. It didn't matter how divided we looked as a Party and it didn't matter how many leaks there were, there was an apparent blind faith that Labor would win. Our final research track before the election showed that only 23 percent of voters thought the Coalition would win compared to 54 percent who thought Labor would win. So only around half the people giving their primary vote to the Coalition thought they were a chance of winning. High expectations had 2 main effects This expectation of a Labor win had 2 main effects. First it increased people’s potential to register a protest vote against the Government. And second it meant people were not judging Tony Abbott or his policies as critically, because they didn’t think he would actually win. So while we were out there saying “Tony Abbott is a risk to our economy and he’ll cut important services”, voters were saying “yes we believe you, but we’re not that worried because he’s not going to win.” Reasons for high expectations: We did a fair amount of research into the reason behind people’s expectations and we found the main reasons were as follows: First term governments don’t lose First, there was ongoing reporting over the last 3 years that a first term government hadn’t lost since 1931. Our handling of the GFC Second, AustralianPolitics.com no http://australianpolitics.com/2007/12/19/liberal-party-director-analyses-election-defeat.html http://australianpolitics.com/2007/12/19/liberal-party-director-analyses-election-defeat.html#comments Wed, 19 Dec 2007 12:58:19 +0000 Malcolm Farnsworth http://australianpolitics.com/2007/12/19/liberal-party-director-analyses-election-defeat.shtml http://australianpolitics.com/2007/12/19/liberal-party-director-analyses-election-defeat.html/feed 0 2007 Federal Election,Brian Loughnane,Howard Government,Liberal Party,National Press Club The Liberal Party's Federal Director, Brian Loughnane, has addressed the National Press Club on the coalition's election defeat. - Loughnane said it was clear the coalition's defeat was attributable to longer term strategic issues than short term tact... The Liberal Party's Federal Director, Brian Loughnane, has addressed the National Press Club on the coalition's election defeat. Loughnane said it was clear the coalition's defeat was attributable to longer term strategic issues than short term tactical issues of recent months. Click on the play button to listen to Loughnane's address: Listen to Brian Loughnane's National Press Club Address This is the text of Brian Loughnane's Address to the National Press Club. Mr President, Ladies and Gentlemen: I thank the National Press Club for the opportunity of today's address as it allows me to discuss our defeat and some of the key issues for the Party over the next three years. I just wish it were different circumstances which brought me here. But on 24th November, the people of Australia voted clearly to change Government. I want to make it clear that the Liberal Party both accepts the decision of the Australian people and acknowledges the extent of the loss. Doing so is the first step on the road back to Government. We have already begun the task of reviewing the reasons for our defeat. We will do so thoroughly over the next few months in order to properly lay the groundwork to rebuild and again earn the trust and confidence of the Australian community at the next election. Some things are already clear. The first is that the result on 24 November was driven more by longer term strategic issues than a series of short term tactical events in the last few months, although these did unquestionably contribute to the magnitude of our defeat. Since the election, we have conducted research among voters who switched from the Liberal Party in the seats we lost and I will set out the key findings of that research today. There has been much commentary on the result since 24 November and much of it in my view is misguided and speculative. This is an important opportunity to set the record straight and lay out the facts. So far as I am aware, it is also the first occasion the result has been reviewed with the benefit of input from specific research conducted since the election. The Challenge The task confronting the Coalition in 2007 was always going to be challenging. It is unusual for any Government in Australia to be elected to a fifth term. The redistribution effectively removed the increased margin won by the Coalition at the last election and reduced the swing required for a change of Government from 4.4% to 2.8%. Significantly, the redistribution occurred in New South Wales and Queensland – the States that counted most in 2007 – and removed any buffer for us when the swing came. It had been evident ever since its defeat in 2004 that Labor had been getting its act together and was building on its experience in State campaigns to refine and develop its federal campaign. Labor used its incumbency in every State as an integrated part of its federal campaign. There are now few federal Coalition seats without at least one State Labor or Independent MP. This had both political and on-the-ground effects, especially for resourcing local Labor campaigns for the federal election and for local media reporting. Further, eleven long-serving Coalition members retired at the 2007 election. We were defeated in five of those seats. However, while these factors made the task of being re-elected difficult, they did not contribute directly to our defeat. Key Reasons In simple terms, a range of factors came together which led the electorate to conclude that while the Government had done a good job, it had run its race and change, while having some risks, was 'worth a go'. This sentiment for change resulted in the Coalition losing the support of some key groups in the electorate that had supported us since 1996. The most important according to our research were parents, in outer suburban and regional areas, in the 35-49 age group. AustralianPolitics.com no http://australianpolitics.com/2007/12/04/tim-gartrell-analyses-alp-2007-election-win.html http://australianpolitics.com/2007/12/04/tim-gartrell-analyses-alp-2007-election-win.html#comments Tue, 04 Dec 2007 09:59:49 +0000 Malcolm Farnsworth http://australianpolitics.com/2007/12/04/oppositions-do-win-elections-gartrell-analyses-alp-election-victory.shtml http://australianpolitics.com/2007/12/04/tim-gartrell-analyses-alp-2007-election-win.html/feed 0 2007 Election,election campaign,John Howard,Kevin Rudd,Tim Gartrell The ALP has disproved the notion that oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them, according to Tim Gartrell, National Secretary of the ALP. - Addressing the National Press Club in Canberra, Gartrell argued that Labor won the election campa... The ALP has disproved the notion that oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them, according to Tim Gartrell, National Secretary of the ALP. Addressing the National Press Club in Canberra, Gartrell argued that Labor won the election campaign outright and that the election of Kevin Rudd as leader of the ALP exactly one year ago was when the momentum began. Gartrell argued that "the momentum Labor built through 2007 was not confined to the return of one single group. It goes comprehensively deeper and wider than that. It was a wave that swept up Australians in almost every demographic – at either end of the spectrum and in the middle. The under 30s and the over 60s. Manual trades workers and the university educated. Mums at home and families with both parents working." Gartrell claimed a wide-ranging swing for the ALP: "This was self-evidently not a swing confined to narrow, sectional groups. This was a swing that on election day would deliver seats to Labor in Far North Queensland, on the Central Coast of New South Wales, in western Sydney and the suburbs of Brisbane and in John Howard's own backyard - Bennelong." Listen to Tim Gartrell's Address to the National Press Club: Listen This is the text of Tim Gartrell's Speech to the National Press Club. The audio file above also contains his responses to questions. Thanks Ken and the National Press Club Board for the opportunity to be here today. Thanks also to the National Australia Bank for sponsoring this event. Since 1996 it's been a great Press Club tradition to invite the campaign directors to speak in the aftermath of an election. I first became part of that tradition in 2004. And I want to say right now, that I'll happily continue the tradition today but note that it is in far more congenial circumstances than those of three years ago. Or as my Dad said in one of the papers on Sunday – it's better than the 'kick up the arse' I got last time! INTRODUCTION History is made during the tumultuous weeks of an election campaign. In the weeks immediately afterwards, history is written. And sometimes, as you all know, it is comprehensively re-written. It is now just over a week since polling day and already there's been a lot of discussion about what it all means. What went right and what went wrong. It is, and I say this from experience, an unforgiving process. Today I want to contribute my two bobs worth to the analysis of the 2007 election. And I want to begin by exploding the notion that oppositions don't win elections but that governments, for whatever reason, lose them. In 2007, this is an argument that cannot be supported or sustained. Kevin Rudd and Labor won this campaign outright – with a clear message about new leadership and a long term plan for Australia's future. It was never a case of sitting back waiting for victory to fall in our laps. It was a tough fight every step of the way up against opponents who would do anything, say anything and spend whatever it took and more, to get themselves elected. Never before has incumbency been so powerful or so outrageously bank-rolled. Billions of taxpayer dollars squandered on government advertising; a shameless spending spree on regional pork barreling. This campaign, as our new Prime Minister reminded us daily and sometimes more than once a day, was like climbing Mount Everest. And what drove us to get to the summit first was our single-minded determination to make Australia a better and fairer place. Labor prevailed because we looked forward to the future with enthusiasm and hope and energy and we took the Australian people with us. Labor's voice was heard because, while John Howard harked back endlessly to the past, we saw the future – saw what had to be done and laid out a plan to do it. Rudd Labor stared down the challenges ahead with policies to sustain economic prosperity beyond the mining boom, AustralianPolitics.com no