A Scenario For Tony Abbott And A Motion Of No-Confidence

May 13, 2013 1 Comment

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s intention to give notice of a no-confidence motion when Parliament returns this week has always been a potentially messy business.

A brief explanation: the government controls the Notice Paper in the House of Representatives. This is the document which outlines the order and timing of debate, including the order of legislation.

Whilst there are set times when the Opposition can bring on debate on particular issues (such as in regular Matters of Public Importance), if it wants to move a specific motion it needs to first move a motion for the Suspension of Standing Orders.

Abbott

Abbott attempted to do this during Question Time on March 21, whilst the government was preoccupied with the leadership spill that wasn’t. He sought to suspend standing orders in order to move: “That this House declares no confidence in the Prime Minister.”

The motion was carried by 73 votes to 71 but was defeated because a suspension of standing orders requires an absolute majority of 76 votes.

Abbott then announced that he would give notice of a no-confidence motion when the House resumes tomorrow. He didn’t say whether it would be no-confidence in the government or the prime minister. The difference is technically significant but may not necessarily be crucial to the outcome of any vote. [Read more...]

Filed Under: 2013 Federal Election, Gillard, House of Reps, Liberal Party, Opinion, Parliamentary Procedures, Political History Tagged With: , , , , , ,

Question Time Ended As Government Wins Technical Victory On Suspension Motion

Mar 21, 2013 Leave a Comment

2.50pm – Prime Minister Julia Gillard has ended Question Time, following an attempt by the Opposition to move a no-confidence motion in here.

The motion to suspend Standing Orders was carried 73-71 but failed because it needed to reach an absolute majority of 76 votes.

The House of Representatives has now moved on to routine business as Labor members left the chamber to prepare for the 4.30pm leadership ballot.

Sky News is reporting the Gillard camp claims it still has 58 certain votes to defeat Rudd.

Backbencher Graham Perrett (Moreton, Queensland) has said he will support Gillard. Parliamentary Secretary Richard Marles says he will support Rudd.

There are some suggestions from Sky’s Peter van Onselen that Kevin Rudd may not nominate. Rudd has maintained since his defeat in February last year that he will not challenge.

Sky’s Kieren Gilbert read a text he said was from the Gillard camp: “Simon Crean is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Rudd enterprises.”


Filed Under: A.L.P., Gillard, House of Reps, Rudd Tagged With: ,

Tony Abbott Attempts To Move No-Confidence Motion In Gillard

Mar 21, 2013 Leave a Comment

2.15pm – Ten minutes into Question Time, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott moved a no-confidence motion in Prime Minister Julia Gillard.

Denied leave, Abbott moved a motion to suspend Standing Orders to enable the no-confidence motion to be moved. He is now speaking to that motion.

Abbott

“This is a government that has lost its way,” Abbott told the House, echoing Gillard’s words on the day she took over from Kevin Rudd in 2010. “But it’s not a good government,” Abbott said.

Kevin Rudd can be seen working quietly at his desk on the government’s backbench.

Bishop

Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop seconded the motion to suspend Standing Orders. “Irrespective of who wins the ballot, there will be stability with this government,” she said. She said the government was riven with splits that will not go away.

Gillard

Gillard attacked the opposition over its attitude to the global financial crisis and lauded her government’s economic performance and its job creation record. Her speech, possibly her last as Prime Minister, canvassed the government’s achievements.

Rudd

The House has now divided on the motion to suspend Standing Orders. If passed, Abbott will be able to move his motion of no-confidence in Gillard. If carried by an absolute majority of 76, the motion will pass.

The motion was passed 73-71 but is lost because the absolute majority was not achieved.

  • Listen to the start of Question Time (9m)

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  • Listen to Abbott’s speech on the suspension of Standing Orders (10m)

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  • Listen to Julie Bishop second Abbott’s motion (5m)

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  • Listen to Julia Gillard respond to the motion (11m)

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Filed Under: A.L.P., Audio2013, Gillard, House of Reps, Liberal Party, Question Time Tagged With: , , ,

A.L.P. Federal Election Results Since 1910

Feb 25, 2013 2 Comments

“The ALP is heading for its biggest defeat ever under Gillard,” I was told recently.

The confident assertion promptly fell to pieces when I asked for a definition of “biggest defeat ever”. A garbled account of seats, votes and swings followed. Such are casual political conversations. Few people know the figures.

But the question is a good one. How do you measure the extent of an election defeat? If the Gillard government is annihilated this year, what measures of comparison should we use?

Here’s a table showing ALP statistics for three different measures: the proportion of seats won in the House of Representatives, the two-party-preferred vote, and the primary vote. The ALP’s winning election years are shaded yellow.

The table includes every election since Federation, except for the first three: 1901, 1903 and 1906. These have been excluded since they took place before the formation of the two-party system as we know it. Since 1910, elections have been fought between the ALP and the non-Labor parties under a variety of names.

The ALP has won 14 of the 40 elections held since 1910. I have categorised the 26 elections it has lost into four groups:

  1. Seven major defeats where the ALP won no more than a third of the seats in the House: 1917, 1925, 1931, 1966, 1975, 1977 and 1996.
  2. Seven significant defeats where the ALP won between 33% and 40% of the seats: 1919, 1922, 1934, 1937, 1949, 1955 and 1958.
  3. Nine moderate defeats where the ALP won between 40% and 50% of the seats: 1928, 1951, 1954, 1963, 1969, 1980, 1998, 2001 and 2004.
  4. Three near misses where the ALP just fell short: 1913, 1940 and 1961.
A.L.P. Performance In Federal Elections
Election Leader Election Won or Lost Seats Won In House of Representatives Two-Party-Preferred Vote % Primary Vote %
1910
Fisher
WIN
42 / 75 = 56.00%
-
49.97
1913
Fisher
LOSS
37 /75 = 49.33%
-
48.47
1914
Fisher
WIN
42 / 75 = 56.00%
-
50.89
1917
Tudor
LOSS
22/ 75 = 29.33%
-
43.94
1919
Tudor
LOSS
26 / 75 = 34.66%
-
42.49
1922
Charlton
LOSS
29 / 45 = 38.66%
-
42.30
1925
Charlton
LOSS
23 / 75 = 30.66%
-
45.04
1928
Scullin
LOSS
31 / 75 = 41.33%
-
44.64
1929
Scullin
WIN
46 / 75 = 61.33%
-
48.84
1931
Scullin
LOSS
14+4=18 / 75 = 24.00%
-
27.10+10.57 = 37.67
1934
Scullin
LOSS
18+9 = 27 / 74 = 36.48%
-
26.81+14.37 = 41.18
1937
Curtin
LOSS
29 / 74 = 39.19%
40.40
43.17
1940
Curtin
LOSS
32+4=36 / 74 = 48.64%
50.30
40.16+5.23 = 45.39
1943
Curtin
WIN
49 / 74 = 66.21%
58.20
49.94
1946
Chifley
WIN
43 / 74 = 58.10%
54.10
49.71
1949
Chifley
LOSS
47 / 121 = 38.84%
49.00
45.98
1951
Chifley
LOSS
52 / 121 = 42.97%
49.30
47.63
1954
Evatt
LOSS
57 / 121 = 47.10%
50.70
50.03
1955
Evatt
LOSS
47 / 122 = 38.52%
45.80
44.63
1958
Evatt
LOSS
45 / 122 = 36.88%
45.90
42.81
1961
Calwell
LOSS
60 / 122 = 49.18%
50.50
47.90
1963
Calwell
LOSS
50 / 122 = 40.98%
47.40
45.47
1966
Calwell
LOSS
41 / 124 = 33.06%
43.10
39.98
1969
Whitlam
LOSS
59 / 125 = 47.20%
50.20
46.95
1972
Whitlam
WIN
67 / 125 = 53.6%
52.70
49.59
1974
Whitlam
WIN
66 / 127 = 51.96%
51.70
49.30
1975
Whitlam
LOSS
36 / 127 = 28.34%
44.30
42.84
1977
Whitlam
LOSS
38 / 124 = 30.64%
45.40
39.65
1980
Hayden
LOSS
51 / 125 = 40.80%
49.60
45.15
1983
Hawke
WIN
75 / 125 = 60.00%
53.23
49.48
1984
Hawke
WIN
82 / 148 = 55.40%
51.77
47.55
1987
Hawke
WIN
86 / 148 = 58.10%
50.83
45.76
1990
Hawke
WIN
78 / 148 = 52.70%
49.90
39.44
1993
Keating
WIN
80 / 147 = 54.42%
51.44
44.92
1996
Keating
LOSS
49 / 148 = 33.10%
46.37
38.75
1998
Beazley
LOSS
67 / 148 = 45.27%
50.98
40.10
2001
Beazley
LOSS
65 / 150 = 43.33%
49.05
37.84
2004
Latham
LOSS
60 / 150 = 40.00%
47.26
37.63
2007
Rudd
WIN
83 / 150 = 55.33%
52.70
43.48
2010
Gillard
WIN
72 / 150 = 48.00%
50.12
37.99

By any measure, the ALP’s most successful election was John Curtin’s victory in 1943. Curtin won 66.21% of seats in the House. James Scullin won 61.33% in 1929 and Bob Hawke won 60% in 1983.

Curtin’s victory is also the only election in which the ALP polled in excess of 55% of the national two-party-preferred vote. [Note: Early figures for the two-party vote are not shown either because there are no precise figures available or because the election took place before preferential voting was introduced in 1918. Up until 1955, two-party figures contain a small element of estimation because some seats returned a member unopposed.] [Read more...]

Filed Under: A.L.P., Election Statistics, Elections, Gillard, Hawke, House of Reps, Keating, Political History, Primary Votes, Rudd, Whitlam Tagged With: , , ,

Joan Child, First Female Member Of House, First Female Speaker, Dies, 91

Feb 24, 2013 Leave a Comment

Joan Child, the first female Labor member of the House of Representatives, and the first female Speaker, has died. She was 91.

Child was elected to the Melbourne electorate of Henty, centred around Oakleigh, in 1974. She had unsuccessfully contested the electorate in 1972.

She was defeated at the 1975 election and again in 1977. She returned to the House in 1980, securing re-election to Henty in 1983, 1984 and 1987.

Child became the first woman Speaker of the House of Representatives in February 1986. She relinquished the position in August 1989, ahead of her retirement at the 1990 election.

The electorate of Henty was abolished in 1990. Parts of the old Henty are now in Chisholm, currently held by the second female Speaker, Anna Burke. Other areas are in Hotham and Higgins.

Shown below is an election leaflet Joan Child used in her unsuccessful 1972 campaign for Henty, and her 1974 and 1980 how-to-vote cards:

Child [Read more...]

Filed Under: 1972 Federal Election, A.L.P., Election Literature, House of Reps, Parliamentary People Tagged With: ,
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