A Scenario For Tony Abbott And A Motion Of No-Confidence

May 13, 2013 1 Comment

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s intention to give notice of a no-confidence motion when Parliament returns this week has always been a potentially messy business.

A brief explanation: the government controls the Notice Paper in the House of Representatives. This is the document which outlines the order and timing of debate, including the order of legislation.

Whilst there are set times when the Opposition can bring on debate on particular issues (such as in regular Matters of Public Importance), if it wants to move a specific motion it needs to first move a motion for the Suspension of Standing Orders.

Abbott

Abbott attempted to do this during Question Time on March 21, whilst the government was preoccupied with the leadership spill that wasn’t. He sought to suspend standing orders in order to move: “That this House declares no confidence in the Prime Minister.”

The motion was carried by 73 votes to 71 but was defeated because a suspension of standing orders requires an absolute majority of 76 votes.

Abbott then announced that he would give notice of a no-confidence motion when the House resumes tomorrow. He didn’t say whether it would be no-confidence in the government or the prime minister. The difference is technically significant but may not necessarily be crucial to the outcome of any vote. [Read more...]

Filed Under: 2013 Federal Election, Gillard, House of Reps, Liberal Party, Opinion, Parliamentary Procedures, Political History Tagged With: , , , , , ,

25th Anniversary Of Opening Of New Parliament House

May 09, 2013 Leave a Comment

Today is the 25th anniversary of the opening of Canberra’s New Parliament House on May 9, 1988.

The building was opened by the Queen. At the time, the Prime Minister was Bob Hawke and the Opposition Leader was John Howard.

The building was opened in Australia’s bicentenary year. May 9 was also the date of the first sitting of the new Commonwealth Parliament in Melbourne in 1901, as well as the date in 1927 when the provisional Parliament House was opened by the Queen’s father, then the Duke of York.

Six videos of the opening of Parliament House are available by clicking on this link. They include speeches by then Prime Minister Bob Hawke, Opposition Leader John Howard, House Speaker Joan Child and Senate President Kerry Sibraa. There is also an interview with former Whitlam government minister Fred Daly.

 

Filed Under: Parliament, Political History, Video

Peter Harvey, Channel 9 Journalist, Dies, 68

Mar 02, 2013 Leave a Comment

Peter Harvey, best known as a Channel 9 journalist over nearly four decades, has died at the age of 68.

Harvey died from pancreatic cancer.

In a storied career, Harvey became famous for his “Peter Harvey – Canberra” sign-off. He reported politics from Canberra for two decades, starting in 1975 just before the Whitlam Dismissal.

In an interview shown tonight, Harvey remembered standing on the steps of Parliament House supporting his cameraman as Gough Whitlam famously delivered his “Kerr’s cur” speech.


Filed Under: Media, Political History, Video, Whitlam Dismissal Tagged With: ,

A.L.P. Federal Election Results Since 1910

Feb 25, 2013 2 Comments

“The ALP is heading for its biggest defeat ever under Gillard,” I was told recently.

The confident assertion promptly fell to pieces when I asked for a definition of “biggest defeat ever”. A garbled account of seats, votes and swings followed. Such are casual political conversations. Few people know the figures.

But the question is a good one. How do you measure the extent of an election defeat? If the Gillard government is annihilated this year, what measures of comparison should we use?

Here’s a table showing ALP statistics for three different measures: the proportion of seats won in the House of Representatives, the two-party-preferred vote, and the primary vote. The ALP’s winning election years are shaded yellow.

The table includes every election since Federation, except for the first three: 1901, 1903 and 1906. These have been excluded since they took place before the formation of the two-party system as we know it. Since 1910, elections have been fought between the ALP and the non-Labor parties under a variety of names.

The ALP has won 14 of the 40 elections held since 1910. I have categorised the 26 elections it has lost into four groups:

  1. Seven major defeats where the ALP won no more than a third of the seats in the House: 1917, 1925, 1931, 1966, 1975, 1977 and 1996.
  2. Seven significant defeats where the ALP won between 33% and 40% of the seats: 1919, 1922, 1934, 1937, 1949, 1955 and 1958.
  3. Nine moderate defeats where the ALP won between 40% and 50% of the seats: 1928, 1951, 1954, 1963, 1969, 1980, 1998, 2001 and 2004.
  4. Three near misses where the ALP just fell short: 1913, 1940 and 1961.
A.L.P. Performance In Federal Elections
Election Leader Election Won or Lost Seats Won In House of Representatives Two-Party-Preferred Vote % Primary Vote %
1910
Fisher
WIN
42 / 75 = 56.00%
-
49.97
1913
Fisher
LOSS
37 /75 = 49.33%
-
48.47
1914
Fisher
WIN
42 / 75 = 56.00%
-
50.89
1917
Tudor
LOSS
22/ 75 = 29.33%
-
43.94
1919
Tudor
LOSS
26 / 75 = 34.66%
-
42.49
1922
Charlton
LOSS
29 / 45 = 38.66%
-
42.30
1925
Charlton
LOSS
23 / 75 = 30.66%
-
45.04
1928
Scullin
LOSS
31 / 75 = 41.33%
-
44.64
1929
Scullin
WIN
46 / 75 = 61.33%
-
48.84
1931
Scullin
LOSS
14+4=18 / 75 = 24.00%
-
27.10+10.57 = 37.67
1934
Scullin
LOSS
18+9 = 27 / 74 = 36.48%
-
26.81+14.37 = 41.18
1937
Curtin
LOSS
29 / 74 = 39.19%
40.40
43.17
1940
Curtin
LOSS
32+4=36 / 74 = 48.64%
50.30
40.16+5.23 = 45.39
1943
Curtin
WIN
49 / 74 = 66.21%
58.20
49.94
1946
Chifley
WIN
43 / 74 = 58.10%
54.10
49.71
1949
Chifley
LOSS
47 / 121 = 38.84%
49.00
45.98
1951
Chifley
LOSS
52 / 121 = 42.97%
49.30
47.63
1954
Evatt
LOSS
57 / 121 = 47.10%
50.70
50.03
1955
Evatt
LOSS
47 / 122 = 38.52%
45.80
44.63
1958
Evatt
LOSS
45 / 122 = 36.88%
45.90
42.81
1961
Calwell
LOSS
60 / 122 = 49.18%
50.50
47.90
1963
Calwell
LOSS
50 / 122 = 40.98%
47.40
45.47
1966
Calwell
LOSS
41 / 124 = 33.06%
43.10
39.98
1969
Whitlam
LOSS
59 / 125 = 47.20%
50.20
46.95
1972
Whitlam
WIN
67 / 125 = 53.6%
52.70
49.59
1974
Whitlam
WIN
66 / 127 = 51.96%
51.70
49.30
1975
Whitlam
LOSS
36 / 127 = 28.34%
44.30
42.84
1977
Whitlam
LOSS
38 / 124 = 30.64%
45.40
39.65
1980
Hayden
LOSS
51 / 125 = 40.80%
49.60
45.15
1983
Hawke
WIN
75 / 125 = 60.00%
53.23
49.48
1984
Hawke
WIN
82 / 148 = 55.40%
51.77
47.55
1987
Hawke
WIN
86 / 148 = 58.10%
50.83
45.76
1990
Hawke
WIN
78 / 148 = 52.70%
49.90
39.44
1993
Keating
WIN
80 / 147 = 54.42%
51.44
44.92
1996
Keating
LOSS
49 / 148 = 33.10%
46.37
38.75
1998
Beazley
LOSS
67 / 148 = 45.27%
50.98
40.10
2001
Beazley
LOSS
65 / 150 = 43.33%
49.05
37.84
2004
Latham
LOSS
60 / 150 = 40.00%
47.26
37.63
2007
Rudd
WIN
83 / 150 = 55.33%
52.70
43.48
2010
Gillard
WIN
72 / 150 = 48.00%
50.12
37.99

By any measure, the ALP’s most successful election was John Curtin’s victory in 1943. Curtin won 66.21% of seats in the House. James Scullin won 61.33% in 1929 and Bob Hawke won 60% in 1983.

Curtin’s victory is also the only election in which the ALP polled in excess of 55% of the national two-party-preferred vote. [Note: Early figures for the two-party vote are not shown either because there are no precise figures available or because the election took place before preferential voting was introduced in 1918. Up until 1955, two-party figures contain a small element of estimation because some seats returned a member unopposed.] [Read more...]

Filed Under: A.L.P., Election Statistics, Elections, Gillard, Hawke, House of Reps, Keating, Political History, Primary Votes, Rudd, Whitlam Tagged With: , , ,

Scott Morrison: Australia, The Land Of Our Adoption

Jan 24, 2013 Leave a Comment

The Shadow Minister for Immigration and Citizenship, Scott Morrison, has delivered a speech on immigration and multiculturalism in which he depicts Australia as a nation of “adopted children” and calls for Australians to honour their national inheritance.

MorrisonIt was delivered at the Menzies Centre for Australian Studies, Kings College, London.

Morrison argues that Australia’s nationalism “is divorced from ethnicity, race and religion, disarming what is often a volatile and potentially negative combination”.

He says the “traditions, values and ethnic culture” of immigrants to Australia “are part of the process of transition from our old lands, culture and ways of life to the new that has been part of the national and cultural journey of Australians for centuries. It is an iterative process, taking place over a lifetime and generations, as we exchange and adapt the old for the new, bringing what’s best, leaving the rest and embracing over time a new national identity”.

Morrison points to Henry Parkes, Robert Lowe and WC Wentworth as examples of the inheritors of a “modern liberal democratic immigration nation” becoming its stewards.

The Howard government reoriented multiculturalism, says Morrison. It sought “to bring a greater focus on what communities had in common as Australians”, adopting a policy that “deliberately set out to explicitly recognize the supremacy of Australian values, the primacy of the English language, respect for existing institutions and adherence to the rule of law”. [Read more...]

Filed Under: Australia, Immigration, Liberal Party, Multiculturalism, Political History Tagged With: , , , , , , ,
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