Final Two-Party Figures: Coalition Won 2016 Election With 50.36%; Swing To Labor Of 3.13%

Final figures published by the Australian Electoral Commission show that the Coalition won the 2016 federal election with 50.36% of the two-party-preferred vote.

The Liberal-Nationals coalition polled 50.36% of the national two-party-preferred vote. The ALP received 49.64%. There was a 3.13% swing to the ALP nationally, a near reversal of the 3.61% swing to the Coalition in the 2013 election.

Every state and territory recorded a swing against the Coalition. The largest swing was 7.41% in the Northern Territory. The smallest was 1.22% in the Australian Capital Territory. [Read more…]


Sen. Malarndirri McCarthy (ALP-NT) – Maiden Speech

Senator Malarndirri McCarthy has delivered her maiden speech as an ALP representative from the Northern Territory.

McCarthy

McCarthy is the second indigenous woman to be elected to the Senate. She succeeds the first, Nova Peris, who served one term following the 2013 federal election. McCarthy is joined by the first indigenous woman to be elected to the House of Representatives, Linda Burney, the ALP member for Barton. [Read more…]


So When Will The Next Election Be Held?

The Parliamentary Library has published a research paper setting out Federal, State and Local election dates over the next few years.

According to the paper, the earliest possible date for a joint House of Representatives and half-Senate election is August 4, 2018. The last possible date for such an election is May 18, 2019. Assuming no unforeseen events, the next federal election is almost certain to fall between these dates.

The last possible date for a double dissolution is May 4, 2019. A double dissolution of the parliament cannot be called later than February 27, 2019.

The paper shows that there will only be two state or territory elections over the next eighteen months: in the ACT on October 15, 2016 and in Western Australia on March 11, 2017. [Read more…]


Luke Gosling (ALP-Solomon) – Maiden Speech

Luke Gosling, the new ALP member for the Northern Territory electorate of Solomon, has delivered his maiden speech to the House of Representatives.

Gosling

Gosling, 44, is a former member of the Australian Defence Force. [Read more…]


Transition To Government Begins In Northern Territory

The Chief Minister-elect of the Northern Territory, Michael Gunner, has held a media doorstop this morning to discuss his plans for forming a new Labor government.

Gunner“Government is not a right, it is a duty,” Gunner said. He stressed that his government would listen and consult with the community.

Gunner dismissed the suggestion of an immediate mini-Budget, saying this would put a brake on the territory’s economy.

The Labor leader said he would ensure that there was a properly resourced group of MPs who could act as an opposition in the new parliament. “I will do absolutely nothing to cripple accountability in the Northern Territory,” Gunner said.

Officially, the Country Liberal Party will lack party status in the new parliament. On current indications, the CLP is likely to have between 2 and 4 members, there are 3 independents, and the ALP will have between 16 and 19 members. A number of seats remain undecided and will not be clear until further counting has taken place. [Read more…]


COUNTRY LIBERALS WIPED OUT IN NORTHERN TERRITORY ELECTION

MICHAEL GUNNER NEW CHIEF MINISTER AS LABOR STORMS TO OFFICE; CLP LIKELY TO HOLD 3-4 SEATS; SAFE SEATS FALL TO ALP IN LARGE SWINGS

Gunner

The Country Liberal Party was routed in today’s Northern Territory election, losing at least 8 of its 12 seats to the ALP, which will govern with at least 16 seats in the 25-seat Parliament.

The CLP has lost 18.6% of its primary vote and currently sits on 32.0%. The ALP’s primary vote has risen 6.4% to 42.8%.

Swings of around 12-16% were common across the Territory and reaching 20% in some areas. The CLP lost heavily in the Darwin suburbs and failed to hold the bush seats with large numbers of indigenous voters that it won in 2012.

As counting drew to a close for the night, commentators agreed that the CLP had retained just 2 seats (Daly and Spillett). Chief Minister Adam Giles was trailing by 21 votes in his seat of Braitling. Giles’s previous margin was 19.6%. In Katherine, Willem Westra van Holthe trailed the ALP by 31 votes. Held by 22.3%, Katherine was the CLP’s safest seat going into the election. Van Holthe attempted to overthrow Giles in February 2015, in a farcical tussle that ended with van Holthe becoming Deputy Chief Minister before being forced to resign in 2016 over conflict of interest allegations. [Read more…]


2016 Senate Votes: A Higher But Fragmented Vote For Minor And Micro Parties

Aside from the Coalition, ALP and Greens, 47 parties contested the Senate at July’s double dissolution election.

Just 8 of the 47 parties polled above 1% nationally. Five of these 8 parties elected senators: Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (4 senators), Nick Xenophon Team (3), Liberal Democrats (1), Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party (1) and Family First (1). The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, the Christian Democrats and the Animal Justice Party did not elect any of their candidates.

There were 39 parties that nominated candidates in at least one state or territory but failed to poll above 0.74%. Fourteen failed to even reach 0.1% nationally and did only marginally better in individual states. Another 25 polled between 0.14%-0.74%.

The Jacqui Lambie Network was the only party in the latter group that managed to elect a senator. Lambie polled just 0.50% nationally, but she only ran candidates in three states and polled a full quota in her own right in Tasmania. With 8.30% of the vote, Lambie won a place in the first group of senators who will receive six-year terms.

The election of Derryn Hinch in Victoria is somewhat comparable to Lambie. His party only polled 1.93% nationally, and less than 1% in all states except Victoria, where Hinch secured election off a primary base of 6.05%.

The combined Coalition-ALP-Greens vote was 73.62%, down 2.85% from the 2013 result. This delivered 65 of the 76 Senate positions (85.5%) to these three groups.

The remaining 26.38% of the vote was split between 47 parties. These parties won the remaining 11 seats (14.4%).

Independent and ungrouped candidates below-the-line received just 0.18% of the vote.

The figures in the table below are consistent with the previous election. In 2013, there were 46 parties that polled less than 1% each.

The overall proportion of the vote flowing to the Coalition, ALP and Greens fell once again at the 2016 election. It fuels the argument that voters are disillusioned with the major parties and looking for alternatives. However, the figures indicate that this is a simplistic analysis.

Voters have failed to coalesce around more than a handful of minor and micro parties. Outside the top 11 groups, the votes for other parties are derisory. The so-called fragmentation of support for the major political groups is more than matched by a fragmented voter rebellion.

Group voting tickets were abolished for this election. Without them, all but a handful of parties were incapable of winning seats. Those elected more closely represent the parties with the highest primary votes. The Family First party in South Australia elected Bob Day from the lowest primary vote of 2.87%. [Read more…]