How Well Did Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Do In The 2016 Federal Election?

The tables on this page show the level of electoral support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation at the 2016 federal election.

Hanson

One Nation ran 15 candidates in the House of Representatives, 12 in Queensland and 3 in NSW. It ran a Senate ticket in each State but not in the territories. [Read more…]


Is Melbourne Ports Going To Be The Surprise Result In The Election?

As counting continues to determine whether the re-elected Turnbull government will have a majority in its own right, attention has turned to an unusual situation in Melbourne Ports.

DanbyThe inner Melbourne electorate includes Port Melbourne, Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, St. Kilda, Elwood, Balaclava and Caulfield, and has been held by the ALP since 1906. In that 110-year period, it has had just 5 members.

Michael Danby has held Melbourne Ports since 1998. He is seeking a seventh term at this year’s election. A member of the ALP’s right-wing faction, Danby is well-known for his defence of Israel and his hostility to the Greens.

At recent elections, Danby’s primary vote has steadily declined and he has been dependent on Greens preferences since 2001. [Read more…]


Which Seats Have Changed Hands So Far In The Federal Election?

This table shows the House of Representatives seats that have changed hands at the 2016 federal election.

Note: Counting has not concluded. Other seats may be added to this list in coming days. The swing percentages shown below may alter slightly. Details of the latest counting is here.

So far, 16 seats have changed hands. The Liberal/LNP/CLP have lost 13 seats, 11 to the ALP, one to the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) and one to The Nationals. The ALP has lost one seat to the Liberals.

The Coalition parties went into the election holding 90 seats, the ALP 55, with 5 crossbenchers.

In NSW, the seat of Barton, whilst held by the Liberal Party, was notionally Labor (4.4%), following a redistribution. The seat of Dobell, whilst held by the Liberal Party, was nationally Labor (0.2%). The seat of Paterson, whilst held by the Liberal Party, was notionally Labor (0.4%). [Read more…]


A Cautionary Tale: Senate Votes In The 2013 Federal Election

Aside from the Coalition, ALP and Greens, just five parties were able to poll above 1% nationally in the last Senate election.

The Palmer United Party, Liberal Democrats, Nick Xenophon Group, Sex Party and Family First each managed to reach 1% nationally in the 2013 federal election. They polled higher numbers in particular states and managed to win seats. Only the Sex Party failed to elect a senator.

A further 46 groups polled less than 1% each. Nineteen of these failed to make it to 0.5%. Twenty-five groups failed to poll more than 0.66% and will not contest this year’s election. Only Ricky Muir from this group of 46 managed to win election to the Senate and that was due to group voting ticket preference deals which have now been abolished. [Read more…]


New Research Paper On House By-Elections

The Parliamentary Library has released a new research paper on House of Representatives by-elections since 1901.

The paper is titled: House of Representatives by-elections: 1901-2015. It is writted by Stephen Barber of the Statistics and Mapping Section.

The paper is displayed below, in accordance with its Creative Commons licence.

The paper’s updated statistics show that the party complexion of a seat has changed on just 35 occasions out of 149 by-elections. The average two-party preferred swing against the government of the day has been 4.0 per cent.

Other data shows that that the average number of nominations for by-elections has grown from 2.2 to 11.6. [Read more…]


Preferential Voting In Action: Denison 2010

The Tasmanian electorate of Denison at the 2010 Federal Election is an interesting case study of preferential voting in action.

The seat had been held by the ALP since 1987, although the sitting member, Duncan Kerr, retired at the election. The Labor, Liberal and Greens candidates were joined by a candidate from the Socialist Alliance and an independent, Andrew Wilkie.

The image below shows that Wilkie came third on primary votes, behind the Labor and Liberal candidates. The Greens were in fourth place and the Socialist Alliance in fifth. No candidate had an absolute majority of 50% + 1. This meant that preferences had to be distributed until someone secured 50% + 1.

Because she had the lowest number of votes, the Socialist Alliance candidate was excluded first. The allocation of her preferences did not change the order: the ALP still led, the Liberals were second and Wilkie remained in third place. [Read more…]


Electoral Pocketbook – 2015

The Australian Electoral Commission has released its latest Electoral Pocketbook, containing the full results of the 2013 Federal Election.

The pocketbook also includes the results of the 2014 Western Australian Senate re-run election.

The pocketbook is shown below. It can be expanded and downloaded. [Read more…]