1996 Federal Election News

Week 2: Feb 4 - 8

Sunday 4 February
Queensland Premier, Wayne Goss, today criticised the timing of the Federal election, saying it had distracted attention from the State issues in the Mundingburra by-election. The ALP has lost the seat, unless it can secure at least 65% of pre-poll and postal votes, an almost impossible task. The 2% swing to the Liberal Party in Mundingburra has ensured that Queensland will have a hung parliament. The ALP has 44 seats, Nationals 31 and Liberals 13. Gladstone Independent, Liz Cunningham, will announce this week whether she will support the Government or the Opposition on the floor of the house. Goss has indicated that he may recommend a fresh general election to the Governor of Queensland. Opposition leader, Rob Borbidge, said his party felt privileged at the opportunity it had to serve and said he was ready to form a government. Former ALP member for Mundingburra, Ken Davies, who was dumped as the ALP's candidate shortly after the Court of Disputed Returns overturned the July general election result in the seat, said he was pleased with the result, saying he "wanted to prove we had a fraud as Premier" and had done just that.

In the Blue Mountains today, Prime Minister Keating said that the by-election showed that no-one had a lien on government and that "we have to earn" the right to govern. Keating said that the ALP had to be accountable and "to take our chances in the democratic system." Claiming that the electorate is now more "conscientious, watchful and discerning", Keating said "this is not ours of right - we have to earn it." Keating also said that the by-election was not replete with State issues and that voters were capable of distinguishing between State and Federal elections.

Opposition Leader, John Howard, warned his supporters against smugness and complacency about the result in Mundingburra, whereas National Party leader, Tim Fischer, said the result showed that the nationwide swing was on.

Mr Fischer launched his party's campaign in the northern NSW electorate of Richmond, currently held by the ALP by a margin of 1.8%. The seat was fomerly held by Larry Anthony senior, National Party leader Doug Anthony and is being contested by Larry Anthony junior, who failed to regain the seat in 1993 following its loss by then National Party leader, Charles Blunt, in 1990. Speaking in Tweed Heads, Fischer announced a package of measures: $27 million for a Rural Health Incentive program to entice doctors to country areas; an easing of the Austudy means test for farmers; appointment of an ambassador to APEC; a rural finance summit; an $850 increase in the Boarding Allowance for country school children; and legislation to protect the Australian flag.

Health will be at the forefront of the election campaign this week. Howard says that he will be providing incentives for people to take out private health insurance. Currently, 34% of people have private health cover, down by half on 1983 figures. Speculation suggests that the tax rebates Howard is expected to offer will cut out at incomes over $40,000. Keating will announce the Government's health policies tomorrow, but today was critical of Howard's proposal, saying it would produce a two-tiered health system. He said that in attempting to make a "gold plated" small private health system, the Opposition would only be increasing the incomes of specialists and private hospitals. He was supported in his criticisms by Robert Fitzgerald of the Australian Council of Social Services (ACOSS).

The Australian Electoral Commission today reminded voters that the electoral rolls close at 8pm tonight.

Monday 5 February
The ALP candidate in Mundingburra, Tony Mooney, officially conceded defeat today. Facing a hung parliament, Premier Wayne Goss announced that he would be resigning his leadership and opening it up to a caucus ballot on Thursday, saying that if his colleagues wanted him he "was available to serve". Goss said he owed it to his colleagues to hold a leadership ballot and that he had always said he would do what was best for the ALP. His ministerial colleague, Peter Beattie, the man most spoken of as a leadership rival, pledged his full support to Goss. (!)

Goss also said that he would not be recommending a new general election to the Governor, saying that it was up to the Parliament to decide the fate of the government. Independent member for Gladstone, Liz Cunningham, will announce tomorrow whether she will support the Government or the coalition. She is widely expected to support the coalition parties, although there has also been speculation about the possibility of her becoming Speaker.

Prime Minister Keating was in Perth today, announcing a $370 million Rail Freight package. Opposition Leader Howard was in Adelaide promising tax benefits for self-funded retirees worth $70 million. Both leaders are coming under some criticism for not detailing the funding arrangements for their election promises. Keating said today that the ALP "was not going to be the bunny in the circus - the only ones accountable." Meanwhile, Democrats leader, Senator Cheryl Kernot, says that people are coming up to her in supermarkets saying "don't you let them sell Telstra."

Keating continued to attack the Opposition's health policy, prior to the release of his own new health plans tomorrow. He said that Howard was not entitled to be believed about his support for Medicare. Keating claimed that Howard favoured the degradation of the publi health system in favour of a "gold-plated" private health system. He said Medicare required "care, maintenance and innovation" and not the "substitution" being proposed by Howard. He also said that $800 million had been put into hospitals by the Federal Government, but $700 million had been taken out by State Liberal governments.

Howard today promised to protect the Australian flag, saying that the "flag belongs to all of us", not to any one person or government. He said that people were suspicious that Keating planned to do to the Governor-General what NSW Premier, Bob Carr, had done to that state's Governor. Speaking on a Channel 10 program, "True Colours", Howard spoke of his small business suburban background, conceding that he might be seen as boring. He distanced himself from conservative state governments by stating that Australia had enough outlets for gambling and that he didn't like casinos. In Victoria in recent months there has been much talk about the economic and social effects of increased gambling outlets.

The coalition also released its primary industry policy today, although much of it was announced in the environment policy last week and is contingent for funding upon the one-third sale of Telstra. National Party member for Kennedy in Queensland, Bob Katter jnr., expressed displeasure with the proposed deregulation of the sugar industry saying that "the best way to lose an election is to pick a fight with the sugar industry."

The ANZ bank's survey of job vacancies showed an increase of 5% in the number of available jobs. Opposition Shadow Treasurer, Peter Costello, said that an unemployment rate of 8.1% was too high and could only be reduced by a change of government, whilst Keating said Australia was enjoying a low inflation, rising employment, high growth economy.

New opinion polls released today show the Government still trailing the Opposition by up to 8-10 points, although there has been some convergence in marginal seats. The polls show most people now expect Howard to win.

Tuesday 6 February
Prime Minister Keating was in Ringwood in Melbourne today, in the marginal electorate of Deakin, currently held by the Liberal Party. He announced reforms to Medicare in what has been described as a "big gun" in Labor's electoral armory. The Government proposes to offer a yearly cash rebate of up to $350 for families with one child and $500 for families with two or more children. The rebate will be used to provide 50% of costs of dental, orthodontic, physiotherapy, speech and occupational therapy, psychology, counselling, podiatry, chiropractic, nursing and private hospital charges. In addition, rebates on theatre fees and midwifery, ante-natal, post-natal and private hospital theatre and labour ward fees for birth and pregnancy will also be available. The unspent portion of the $350/$500 can be accumulated for up to 7 years. Moreover, there is an option to use the rebate for private health insurance. It will be means-tested up to a total family income of $63,000, covering 80% of families. Keating also announced that the government would provide $150 million for public hospitals provided the states reduced waiting lists and times.

The Australian Medical Association welcomed the policy. The AMA President, Dr. David Weedon said on commercial television that the AMA supported 90% of the policy, whilst on ABC television he said it supported 80%! In Adelaide, Mr. Howard said that the policy was "catch-up politics" and that Keating had experienced a "Damascus-like conversion on the road to Melbourne." Speaking on radio 3AW, Keating said that one difference between what the Government and Opposition were offering was that the rebate would be available in cash over the counter at Medicare offices, whereas the Opposition's rebate would only apply to taxpayers and be paid once a year. Keating said that Howard was not entitled to be believed when he spoke in support of Medicare, quoting Howard in 1987 as saying about Medicare: "I will pull it right apart." Keating said that Howard "says he won't kill it, he's just going to make it dead." He went on to say that "Jeff Kennett will turn his casino into an Anglican mission before John Howard supports Medicare." The Prime Minister said that the Government's aim was to build on Medicare, rather than create an alternative private system. Howard asked why it was that the Labor Party always opposed proposals designed to enable people to look after themselves.

In Adelaide, Howard ran the gauntlet of Telstra supporters demonstrating outside the venue of the business lunch he addressed to launch the coalition's Industry policy. Referring to Keating's quip that "this is as good as it gets", Howard said: "What an arrogant, contemptuous, sniggering, out of touch, bone-stupid, incompetent statement that was." The Industry policy proposes a $10 million plan to privde incentives for people to buy shares in the company they work for, supports keeping existing industry support, adopting the same tariff reduction timetable as the government, providing easier access to loans for small business and modifying government purchasing policy in favour of small business.

The Australian Democrats released an innovative television commercial today that uses sophisticated computer graphics to depict the major parties and their leaders as fallen angels. The commercial took 500 man-hours to produce. The Democrats have adopted their long-time unofficial slogan of "Keep the Bastards Honest" as their official theme for the election. Howard today criticised the Democrats for supporting 100% public ownership of Telstra over preservation of the environment.

There is still no agreement on the proposed television debates between Howard and Keating. The Liberals are continuing to veto Kerry O'Brien as moderator, whilst Keating said it was extraordinary that they were blackballing the prime current affairs interviewer on the national broadcaster. Howard said that Keating could "whistle dixie" because he was "not budging." Kernot said she would be happy to have Frontline's Mike Moore!

An opinion poll in "The Australian" today showed Labor making up some ground on the coalition during last week. The Newspoll showed a two-party preferred vote for the ALP of 46%, compared to 54% to the coalition. However, 42% believed Keating would make a better Prime Minister compared to 38% for Howard, with 20% uncommitted. The poll indicates that the ALP has cut the coalition's lead from 10 points to 7 in the first week of the campaign. The Managing Director of Newspoll, Mr. Sol Lebovic, stressed yesterday that it was too early to be calling the result. Mr. Lebovic said those commentators already predicting a coalition victory were "off with the pixies", and had failed to recognise the importance of the campaign. He said the survey results - and an earlier Newspoll on the motivation behind voting preferences - suggested many of those supporting the coalition were simply "parking" their vote and would decide whether to stay during the campaign.

The Morgan Poll, to be published tomorrow in "The Bulletin", says that 83% of people have already decided how they will vote. It shows two-party-preferred support for the coalition at 54%, up 2%, and the ALP 46%, down 2%. Howard's approval has risen to 55%, up 8%, whilst Keating's has dropped to 36%, down 3%.

In Queensland today, Peter Beattie announced that he would not be challenging the leadership of Premier Wayne Goss at Thursday's caucus meeting. Mr. Goss is now expected to remain leader. He called upon the Governor today. Meanwhile, Opposition leader, Rob Borbidge, demanded that Parliament be recalled before March 5, saying that he would campaign in every marginal seat that Labor holds in Queensland. He said "Labor will bleed if Parliament does not meet." The new member for Mundingburra, Frank Tanti, received a hero's welcome at a Liberal party-room meeting today.

As it did yesterday, the decision by the Australian Cricket Board to cancel the visit by the Australian cricket team to Sri Lanka dominated the media today.

Wednesday 7 February
Health Minister, Dr. Carmen Lawrence, today apologised to Opposition Leader Howard over comments she made alleging he intended to dismantle Medicare. Lawrence quoted from a radio interview Howard gave, saying that he had said "at the moment it is not our intention to reduce Medicare." Howard had actually said to the interviewer, "just a moment..." The error was attributed to a transcription service used by Lawrence. Howard condemned the incident as an example of the "lies and distortions" the ALP would use during the campaign. He emphasised that the misquote was used by Lawrence who last year appeared before a Royal Commission established by the Western Australian Liberal Government to investigate the Penny Easton affair. Lawrence was heavily criticised by the Royal Commissioner, Mr. Justice Marks, as deceptive and untruthful. The error blunted the ALP's attack on Howard over health and Medicare following yesterday's launch by Keating of policies aimed at extending the coverage by Medicare to a range of ancillary services for families with children. Howard today attacked the policy as doing nothing for single or elderly people. Keating responded that this comment came from the man who portrayed himself as the "family man" but who ran away from measures designed to assist families.

The ALP appears to have given up on its insistence that the ABC be the host for the proposed television debates between Howard and Keating. It now appears that the debate next Sunday may go ahead on Channel 9, probably with Ray Martin as host. However, no final agreement has yet been reached between the two parties.

Today's political news was also dominated by an agreement between the government and the Northern Land Council to declare large areas of the north cape area of Queensland as world heritage sites to be preserved. Aboriginal groups have agreed to forgo land title claims and some mining interests have reached an accommodation with the environmentalists. Green preferences will continue to be of some significant influence in a number of marginal seats in this election. The ALP's win in the 1990 election is attributed in part to the strong flow of Green and Democrat preferences to the ALP because of its environmental record.

The Bulletin Morgan Poll published today suggests that 83% of people have already committed their vote for this election and that of those still undecided there are more "soft" ALP than coalition voters. The Bulletin's poll analysis argues that the ALP's leadership theme, pitting a strong and decisive Keating against a weak Johnnie Howard, is not biting with the electorate. A Reuters average of the major polls indicates that the ALP is trailing the coalition by about 10 points, 3 more than it was behind at this stage in the 1993 election.

In Tasmania, which goes to the polls for a State election on February 24, ALP Opposition Leader, Michael Field, last night committed the ALP to supporting a minority Liberal government after the new election. Field was Premier of Tasmania in the late 1980s and early 1990s, heading a minority government supported by the Greens. Ultimately, the Greens withdrew their support and the last general election saw the election of a majority Liberal Government led by Ray Groom, a former Federal member. Opinion is divided about Field's extraordinary statement. Greens leader, Christine Milne, said Field was "running for Opposition". Other suggested Field was admitting that the ALP cannot win the election. Still others say that it is a deliberate tactic to highlight the ALP's independence from the Greens and to force the responsibility for any new election resulting from a hung parliament onto Groom. The Liberal Party has been expected to lose its majority in the election, especially since the surprise retirement by former Liberal Premier, Robin Gray, late last year. Tasmania uses the Hare-Clark Proportional Representation system which ensures that no government is able to win a large majority in the 35 member House of Assembly.

Thursday 8 February
The election was dominated today by confusion in the Liberal Party about the state of the Federal budget. Victorian Premier Kennett was interviewed by ABC Radio this morning and referred to a $9-15 billion budget deficit, casting doubt on the ability of the Opposition and the Government to fund their respective campaign promises. Kennett was telephoned by the Shadow Treasurer, Peter Costello, after the interview and told that the coalition was working on a figure of $3-5 billion. Kennett then gave an interview on Radio 3AW, quoting this figure, but referring to it as a deficit, when Costello had meant it as a surplus. Later in the day, Kennett issued a "clarification" statement. This episode comes as the election sees more media discussion of the campaign commitments of both sides, now estimated to total $7 billion. It also draws attention back to the "Kennett factor". Victoria contains a dozen or more marginal seats which many commentators see as crucial to the overall election result on March 2.

"The Age" today published exclusive details of a promise to be made by the Government whereby Essendon airport in Melbourne would be redeveloped as a film and television studio complex at a cost of $400 million, although not all of this money would be government investment. Premier Kennett said he doubted the Government's commitment to the proposed project and called for the $400 million to be immediately placed in a trust account until after the election as a guarantee of future construction. The official announcement of the project is expected next week. Meanwhile, Opposition leader Howard announced the coalition's Arts policy, containing promises totalling $60 million over three years. The policy is heavily biased in favour of regional arts groups, with a $34 million regional arts strategy. Amongst other promises, Howard proposed spending $15.5 million towards the construction of the National Museum of Australia and $3 million for "emerging" artists. Overall, Howard pledged to maintain existing levels of funding to the arts. Communications Minister, Michael Lee, described the policy as a "one minute to midnight conversion".

Unemployment figures released today showed that the unemployement rate has risen half a per cent to 8.6% in January. Prime Minister Keating said the increase simply reflected "monthly volatility" and stressed that the underlying trends in the vacancies and participation rates were strong. Meanwhile, the Liberals unveiled billboards with a photograph of Keating saying "Go get a job", a reference to a remark the Prime Minister made to protesting university students last year.

Doubt still exists over the proposed television leaders debates. Keating, campaigning in the marginal Western Australian seat of Cowan today, proposed two debates, one on the ABC with Kerry O'Brien as moderator and one on Channel 9 with Ray Martin as moderator, the order of debates to be decided by the toss of a coin. Keating said: "I'll even toss his coin. Someone asked me whether I would toss Andrew Robb's (Federal Liberal Party Director) coin and I said you've got to draw the line somewhere!"

Queensland Premier, Wayne Goss, was re-elected unopposed as ALP leader at a Caucus meeting in Brisbane today. Following the meeting, Goss met with Independent member for Gladstone, Liz Cunningham. Cunningham is to announce her decision on Monday about which side she will support in the crucial meeting of the Queensland Legislative Assembly on March 5. One journalist said tonight that the coalition was "comfortably anticipating" the decision.

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