By-Election In Ryan In New Year

Following yesterday's ministerial reshuffle by Prime Minister John Howard, a by-election is to be held in the Queensland seat of Ryan, held by outgoing Defence Minister, John Moore.

Moore held Ryan with 59.52% of the two-party-preferred vote in the 1998 election. There was a 7.46% swing against him.

Whilst Ryan is classified as a safe Liberal seat, caution should be exercised in assessing the likely outcome of a by-election.

Recent election results in Victoria, including by-elections, have shown a marked propensity for large swings.

The ALP's troubles in Queensland with allegations of electoral fraud, which have resulted in the Beattie Labor government losing its majority in Parliament, will not assist the ALP in Ryan.

Nevertheless, there has been no electoral test of the impact of the GST on voters, save for a by-election in Isaacs in August. The Liberals did not contest that election. Kim Beazley has indicated today that the ALP may not contest Ryan.

• Details of Howard's Reshuffle

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