Ronaldson Retirement A New Electoral Hurdle For Howard

The decision by Michael Ronaldson, the Liberal member for Ballarat, to retire at the next election is a blow to the Howard Government in what will be a tight election contest in 2001.

Ronaldson, the Government Whip in the House of Representatives, announced yesterday that he would not contest the seat at the next election. Ronaldson won the seat from Labor's John Mildren in the 1990 election and held it again in 1993, 1996 and 1998.

In 1998, he secured 52.77% of the two-party-preferred vote, minimising the swing against the Liberal Party to 0.9%. He won 45.23% of the primary vote, compared to 40.92% for the ALP's candidate, Marg Card.

Following the electoral wipe-out of Liberal members in the Bendigo-Ballarat region in the 1999 Victorian State election, Ronaldson is now the only sitting Liberal in the area.

It is generally believed that Ronaldson's personal support has made a difference in recent years, although this is difficult to assess.

What is clear is that his retirement adds one further electoral hurdle for the government to clear next year. The election is due by the end of 2001, but could be held anytime, although it is unlikely to take place before July. The government needs to lose only 7 seats to lose power.

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