National Swing Against ALP Is 1.2%; Tasmania and Top End Buck Trend

Current figures show that yesterday's election saw a nationwide swing against the ALP of 1.26%. The biggest swing was in Queensland where the ALP vote is down 2.22%. The ALP had its best performance in the Northern Territory where its vote increased by 2.67%.

As in the 1998 election, the ALP's vote is highest in the nation's capital (61.26%). Its best State is Tasmania (57.95%), followed by Victoria (52.70%).

The Coalition's best State is Queensland (54.20%).

Nationwide, the coalition has polled 50.28% of the two-party-preferred vote. Click here for an explanation of the two-party-preferred statistic.

As we have come to expect in Australia, many sections of the media fail to conduct their own research and verify "facts" presented to them by politicians. Last night, the Prime Minister, John Howard, claimed that the swing to his government was the biggest two-party swing to an incumbent government since 1966. It may have been a fact at the time he said it, but the current swing of 1.26% is lower than the 1.54% achieved by Paul Keating in 1993.

Two-Party-Preferred Statistics 2001 & 1998 House of Representatives (Provisional Results 11-11-01)
	1998			2001
State	ALP %	L/NP %	% Swing To ALP	ALP %	L/NP %	% Swing To Coalition
New South Wales	51.54	48.46	4.11	49.32	50.68	2.22
Victoria	53.53	46.47	3.22	52.70	47.30	0.83
Queensland	46.95	53.05	7.17	45.80	54.20	1.15
Western Australia	49.46	50.54	5.46	48.59	51.41	0.87
South Australia	46.89	53.11	4.15	46.15	53.85	0.74
Tasmania	57.32	42.68	5.74	57.95	42.05	-0.63
Australian Capital Territory	62.44	37.56	6.98	61.26	38.74	1.18
Northern Territory	50.57	49.43	0.94	53.24	46.76	-2.67
Total	50.98	49.02	4.61	49.72	50.28	1.26

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