The Australian Democrats have clearly outpolled the Greens and One Nation
in
BOTH Houses of Federal Parliament and are likely to return more senators
than the Greens in this election.
In the House of Representatives, the Democrats vote rose, with the
Democrats
nationally polling 5.3%, well ahead of the Greens on 4.3% and One Nation on
4.3%.
In the Senate, the Democrats vote fell on 1996, but the Democrats clearly outpolled the Greens. The Democrats won 7.1% to the Greens 4.8% and One
Nation's 5.5%.
In terms of votes, the Greens are Australia's fifth political party,
polling behind the Coalition, Labor, Democrats and One Nation.
It should also be remembered that the Greens were coming off their worst
Senate vote ever in 1998, where they won 40,000 votes less than in 1996.
The Greens also ran in 25 more House seats in 2001 compared with 1998.
This
delivered an additional 56,400 votes in the House. These two factors alone
account for half of the increase in the Greens vote in this election.
It is disappointing that many media analysts are falling for the massive
media overspin by the Greens when the Democrats won the support of 130,000 more voters nationally and more senate seats than the Greens.
The rise in Greens support was strongest only in Victoria and Bob Brown's
home state of Tasmania. In Western Australia, the Green senate vote did not
rise, and was 3% below their February State vote.
In Queensland the Greens
won just 3.3%, well below their State result earlier this year and half the
vote of the Democrat. In South Australia, the Greens won 3.34%, up just 1%
and well behind the Democrats on 12.5%.
In New South Wales, the Greens won
4.3% to the Democrats 6.1%, where advantage of having two Green MLCs
(elected on similar votes) was apparent.
In Victoria, the Greens won 5.9%,
their biggest increase in any state, but still behind the Democrats on
7.7%.
The impact of the Gippsland forests issue was quite apparent in Victoria.
The Greens failed to meet the 4% threshold for public funding in two states (Queensland and South Australia) and just qualified in New South Wales. By
contrast, the Democrats qualify in every state.
The Democrats will almost certainly hold their senate seat in Western
Australia, with Senator Murray building up a near unassailable lead. Only
two senate seats are too close to call - Victoria and New South Wales.
The Democrats are marginally in front in Victoria and marginally behind in
New South Wales.
However, the Democrats will gain from below the line
voting
preference leakages and the increase in major party preferences from late
counting in both seats. These two factors should increase the lead in
Victoria and close the gap in New South Wales, but a final result will not
be known for four weeks.
|
GREENS HOUSE VOTE |
DEMOCRATS HOUSE VOTE |
|
% Primary |
Seats Contested |
% Primary |
Seats Contested |
1996 |
3.2% |
109 |
6.8% |
144 |
1998 |
2.7% |
123 |
5.1% |
148 |
2001 |
4.3% |
150 |
5.3% |
150 |
| SENATE VOTE |
|---|
| State | Democrat | One Nation | Green |
|---|
| NSW |
6.1% |
5.5% |
4.3% |
| Victoria |
7.7% |
2.4% |
5.9% |
| Qld |
6.7% |
10.1% |
3.3% |
| SA |
12.5% |
4.5% |
3.4% |
| WA |
5.7% |
7.0% |
5.7% |
| Tas |
4.5% |
3.3% |
13.7% |
| Australia |
7.1% |
5.5% |
4.8% |
