Herbert Still Too Close To Call; LNP Leads By 44 Votes

11.50pm – The result in the Queensland electorate of Herbert is still too close to call, with the LNP member Ewen Jones clinging to a narrow lead of 44 votes in the last undecided seat of the 2016 election.

Having taken the lead for the first time yesterday, Jones finished today little better off. His lead fell to 31 at one stage, before settling at 44. There are 1,412 votes left to count and the result is unpredictable, although Jones should probably be favoured to win.

A win by Jones would give the Turnbull government 77 seats in the House, a 4-seat majority over the ALP (68) and the crossbenchers (5). After providing a Speaker, the government would have a majority of three on the floor of the House. [Read more…]


The 120 Seats That Swung To The ALP In The Federal Election

On current figures, the national swing to the ALP in the federal election is 3.15%.

There were swings to the ALP in every State and Territory. However, the Coalition currently leads the national two-party-preferred vote with 50.34% to the ALP’s 49.66%.

The ALP secured swings to it in 120 (80%) of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.

In 59 seats, the ALP received swings of between 0.03% and 3.15%. From this group, it looks likely to win just one seat, Hindmarsh, where the swing is currently 2.20.

In another 61 seats, the pro-ALP swings were all above the national average, ranging from 3.21% to 13.45%. From these, the ALP picked up 14 seats from the Liberals, including 3 that were notionally Labor following a redistribution.

In the 30 seats that recorded the largest pro-Labor swings (from 5.26% to 13.45%), the ALP won 9 seats (including two already notionally Labor) and stacked up large increases in 17 seats it already held, including 8 in NSW.

The seats in the table below are ordered by the size of the swing to the ALP, starting with the largest. [Read more…]


Seats That Swung To The Coalition In The 2016 Federal Election

As counting proceeds in the 2016 House of Representatives elections, it appears that only 16 seats resisted the nationwide swing to the ALP.

Fifteen seats held by the Liberal Party and 1 seat held by The Nationals recorded swings away from the ALP. Thirteen of these seats were already held by the Coalition.

The swings range from 0.09% in Cook to 3.04% in Deakin.

The Liberal Party won just one seat from the ALP, the Melbourne electorate of Chisholm, with a swing of 2.91%.

The national two-party-preferred swing against the Coalition currently stands at 3.16%. Every State and Territory swung to the ALP, ranging from 0.72% in the Australian Capital Territory to 8.90% in South Australia.

The Coalition won the State two-party-preferred contest in NSW (50.42%), Queensland (53.95%) and Western Australia (54.54%). [Read more…]


ALP Claims Hindmarsh, Now Holds 68 Seats; LNP Takes Lead In Herbert, Last Undecided Seat

10.50pm – The ALP today claimed victory in the South Australian electorate of Hindmarsh, bringing its total to 68 seats.

In the only remaining undecided seat, the LNP took the lead for the first time in the Queensland electorate of Herbert, ahead of the ALP by just 34 votes.

GeorganasOpposition Leader Bill Shorten was in Adelaide to claim victory in Hindmarsh with Steve Georganas (pictured), who returns to parliament as the member for the seat he represented between 2004 and 2013. At the close of counting today, the ALP’s lead was 588 votes, or 50.31%. There are 5,514 votes still to count but there is no doubt that Georganas will win. There are only 791 postal votes remaining and 2,663 absentee votes. The ALP is securing 56.06% of the latter.

In Herbert, the ALP’s lead was finally overtaken by the LNP today and finished at 34 votes. The sitting member, Ewen Jones, now seems certain to be returned for his third term. There are now just 3,197 votes left to count: 1,089 postal, 863 declaration pre-poll, 969 provisional and 276 absent. The LNP is easily winning postals and declaration pre-poll votes, whilst the ALP is just ahead on absents with 51.53%.

If the Coalition wins Herbert, the final tally for the 45th Parliament will be: Coalition 77, ALP 68, Others 5. This is a Coalition majority of four over all other groups and a majority of three on the floor of the House, after a Speaker has been provided. In addition, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has secured agreements with three crossbenchers – Bob Katter, Cathy McGowan and Andrew Wilkie – for support on Supply and Confidence. [Read more…]


National Swing To ALP Currently 3.17%; Swings To ALP In Every State And Territory

On current figures, the national swing to the ALP in the federal election is 3.17%.

There were swings to the ALP in every State and Territory. However, the Coalition currently leads the national two-party-preferred vote with 50.32% to the ALP’s 49.68%.

The Coalition won a majority of the two-party vote in three states. Its best result was in Western Australia (54.58%), following by Queensland the New South Wales.

The ALP won three states and both territories. Its best result was in the ACT (60.60%), followed by the Northern Territory, South Australia, Tasmania and Victoria.

There were swings to the ALP in 120 of the 150 House of Representatives seats. Another 16 seats recorded swings to the Coalition, all but 3 of which were already held by the Coalition. [Read more…]


Turnbull Seems Set For Floor Majority Of Three In 45th Parliament

11.50pm – The two remaining undecided seats in the 2016 federal election are no closer to finalisation, following another day’s counting. However, the government is now likely to have a majority of three in the new House.

The ALP’s lead in Hindmarsh remains unchanged at 582 votes. There are 6,125 votes still to count: 2,644 absents, 1,599 provisionals, 1,130 declaration pre-poll, and 752 postals. There is no change to the expectation that Steve Georganas will regain the seat he previously held for the ALP.

In Herbert, the ALP’s lead narrowed again, from 178 votes to 66. There are 6,016 votes left to count: 2,696 postal, 1,747 declaration pre-poll, 1,002 provisional and 571 absent. The ALP is only besting the LNP on absent votes and there is now an expectation that this seat is about to move decisively to the LNP.

If the ALP wins Hindmarsh and the Coalition wins Herbert, the final tally for the 45th Parliament will be: Coalition 77, ALP 68, Others 5. This is a Coalition majority of four over all other groups and a majority of three on the floor of the House, after a Speaker has been provided. [Read more…]


Coalition Secures Absolute Majority Of 76; Labor Claims Cowan; Just Two Seats Still Undecided

11.45pm – As election counting entered its second week today, the ALP claimed victory in Cowan, whilst the LNP drew further ahead in Capricornia and Flynn, securing an absolute majority of 76 seats for the Turnbull government.

The ALP still leads in Hindmarsh and Herbert, the two remaining undecided seats in the House of Representatives.

In Cowan, the ALP’s Anne Aly claimed victory and will become the first female Muslim to be elected to the House. A batch of votes that had been wrongly counted for the Liberals delivered several hundred votes to Aly. Her 946 vote lead, combined with preference flows means that Cowan can now be taken out of the doubtful list. There are 6,942 votes still to count. The ALP now has a confirmed 67 seats.

The ALP’s lead in Hindmarsh remains at 583 votes. This seat will probably come out of the doubtful list in the next day or two, since the ALP lead seems firm. There are 5,307 votes still to count. The Liberals’ 53.81% advantage in postals is offset by the ALP’s 56.06% advantage in absentees.

In the Queensland seats of Capricornia and Flynn, the LNP extended its leads. Both seats have now been removed from the doubtful list.

In Capricornia, the LNP lifted its weekend lead of 148 votes to 691. There are 3,475 votes to count and it is clear that the LNP will retain the seat. A traditionally Labor electorate, Capricornia was lost by the ALP in 1975 and 1996. In both cases, it was regained at the following election. Michelle Landry becomes the first non-Labor member for Capricornia to win consecutive elections since Henry Pearce, who held it between 1949 and 1961. Pearce is now 98 years old and is one of only two surviving members from the 1949 parliament. [Read more…]