Trevor Evans (Lib-Brisbane) – Maiden Speech

Trevor Evans, the Liberal National member for Brisbane, has delivered his maiden speech to the House of Representatives.

Evans

Evans has succeeded Teresa Gambaro, who took the seat from the ALP in 2010. It had previously been held by the ALP since 1980. [Read more…]


Seats That Swung To The Coalition In The 2016 Federal Election

As counting proceeds in the 2016 House of Representatives elections, it appears that only 16 seats resisted the nationwide swing to the ALP.

Fifteen seats held by the Liberal Party and 1 seat held by The Nationals recorded swings away from the ALP. Thirteen of these seats were already held by the Coalition.

The swings range from 0.09% in Cook to 3.04% in Deakin.

The Liberal Party won just one seat from the ALP, the Melbourne electorate of Chisholm, with a swing of 2.91%.

The national two-party-preferred swing against the Coalition currently stands at 3.16%. Every State and Territory swung to the ALP, ranging from 0.72% in the Australian Capital Territory to 8.90% in South Australia.

The Coalition won the State two-party-preferred contest in NSW (50.42%), Queensland (53.95%) and Western Australia (54.54%). [Read more…]


Teresa Gambaro Announces Retirement At Next Election

Teresa Gambaro, the LNP member for Brisbane and the first woman of Italian origin to sit in the House of Representatives, has announced that she will retire at the election due this year.

Gambaro

Gambaro has held Brisbane since 2010, when she defeated the former Labor member, Arch Bevis. The ALP had held Brisbane for 30 years at that point.

Before representing Brisbane, Gambaro was the Liberal member for Petrie, winning the seat in 1996 and holding it until she was one of the casualties of the Howard government’s defeat in 2007.

Gambaro became a Parliamentary Secretary in 2004 and was Assistant Minister for Immigration and Citizenship in the final nine months of the Howard government in 2007.

She was Shadow Parliamentary Secretary for International Development Assistance and Shadow Parliamentary Secretary for Citizenship and Settlement from 2010 until the coalition’s victory in 2013. The former prime minister, Tony Abbott, did not include her in his ministry after the election. [Read more…]


2001 Primary Vote Winners, Preference Vote Losers

There were 6 seats in the 2001 federal election where the primary vote leader was defeated after the full distribution of preferences.

Primary Leads Overturned After Preference Distribution
House of Representatives – 2001
No. State Division Incumbent Leader Primary % Successful Candidate Primary % Two-Party %
1
NSW Cowper Gary Nehl (NP) Jenny Bonfield (ALP)
32.31
Luke Hartsuyker (NP)
29.89
54.73
2
NSW Paterson Bob Horne (ALP) Bob Horne (ALP)
40.75
Bob Baldwin (LP)
39.91
51.42
3
VIC Chisholm Anna Burke (ALP) Ros Clowes (LP)
43.58
Anna Burke (ALP)
42.44
52.77
4
VIC Melbourne Ports Michael Danby (ALP) Andrew McLorinan (LP)
39.71
Michael Danby (ALP)
39.36
55.69
5
QLD Brisbane Arch Bevis (ALP) Seb Monsour (LP)
39.32
Arch Bevis (ALP)
38.23
53.13
6
WA Hasluck new seat Bethwyn Chan (LP)
39.33
Sharryn Jackson (ALP)
38.23
51.78

These statistics show the full force of the preferential voting system. Luke Hartsuyker won Cowper, despite polling only 29.89% of the primary vote, because he gained the majority of second preferences from the Liberal candidate. The Liberal candidate polled 15.95%.

Overall, there were 87 electorates (58%) where preference distribution was required to obtain a winner in 2001.

These 6 electorates where the primary vote lead was overturned after preferences indicates that a primary vote lead is the best position to be in to be sure of success. It is apparent that whilst a party or parties can win seats and elections on preferences, there is no substitute for being ahead in the primary vote.

Some people argue that these statistics demonstrate that we may as well introduce first-past-the-post voting, since most candidates who lead on the primary vote ultimately triumph. This argument fails to take account of the possibility that electors may cast different votes if they knew that their preferences did not matter.