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Government’s Victory Assured But Still No Definite Results In Key Seats

10.00pm – The Turnbull government’s position improved in counting of House of Representatives seats today but an absolute majority of 76 seats is still not confirmed.

There is no change to the standing of the various parties tonight. The Coalition has 74 seats, the ALP 66, and Others 5.

The ALP remains ahead in all of the 5 remaining doubtful seats – Capricornia, Flynn, Herbert, Hindmarsh and Cowan. If these leads are maintained, the Coalition will finish with 74 seats, the ALP 71, and Others 5.

However, the ALP’s lead narrowed in 4 seats. In Capricornia, the ALP’s lead fell from 476 to 174. A total of 9,868 declaration votes remain to be counted, including 4,711 postals and 3,268 absentee votes. The LNP has been receiving 57.54% of postal votes, but no absentees have yet been counted. The ALP received 50.67% of absentees in the last election.

In Flynn, the ALP’s lead has shrunk from 646 to just 7. There are 7,734 declaration votes still to count, including 4,640 postals and 1,728 absentees. The LNP has been receiving 63.93% of postals. In 2013, the LNP also garnered 57.19% of absentees. At some point, Flynn is expected to move into the Coalition’s column. [Read more…]


Preferential Voting In Action: Denison 2010

The Tasmanian electorate of Denison at the 2010 Federal Election is an interesting case study of preferential voting in action.

The seat had been held by the ALP since 1987, although the sitting member, Duncan Kerr, retired at the election. The Labor, Liberal and Greens candidates were joined by a candidate from the Socialist Alliance and an independent, Andrew Wilkie.

The image below shows that Wilkie came third on primary votes, behind the Labor and Liberal candidates. The Greens were in fourth place and the Socialist Alliance in fifth. No candidate had an absolute majority of 50% + 1. This meant that preferences had to be distributed until someone secured 50% + 1.

Because she had the lowest number of votes, the Socialist Alliance candidate was excluded first. The allocation of her preferences did not change the order: the ALP still led, the Liberals were second and Wilkie remained in third place. [Read more…]