Can You Help?

This website is in imminent danger of being shut down. It has been online since 1995, but the personal circumstances of the owner, Malcolm Farnsworth, are such that economies have to be made. Server costs and suchlike have become prohibitive. At the urging of people online, I have agreed to see if Patreon provides a solution. More information is available at the Patreon website. If you are able to contribute even $1.00/month to keep the site running, please click the Patreon button below.


Become a Patron!


Chris Crewther (Lib-Dunkley) – Maiden Speech

This is the maiden speech to the House of Representatives by the new Liberal member for Dunkley, Chris Crewther.

  • Listen to Crewther (29m – transcript below)
  • Watch Crewther (29m)

Hansard transcript of maiden speech by Chris Crewther, Liberal member for Dunkley.

The SPEAKER: Before I call the honourable member for Dunkley, I remind the House that this is the honourable member’s first speech and I ask the House to extend to him the usual courtesies. [Read more…]


Informal Vote Declines In Federal Election; Sydney Again Records Highest Rates

The percentage of informal votes in the 2016 House of Representatives elections dropped by 0.86% to 5.05%.

The informal vote is the lowest since 2004, when it was 5.2%. Informals declined in every State and Territory, apart from the Northern Territory, which has recorded the highest rate of 7.35%, an increase of 1.05%.

Other than NSW and the NT, all States and Territories recorded an informal vote of less than 5%. In NSW, the informal percentage was 6.17%.

Whilst the highest informal vote in an individual seat outside NSW is 8.84% in Murray (Vic), NSW has 9 seats with an informal vote above 8%. As in previous elections, these are all Labor-held electorates in Sydney with high proportions of non-English speaking residents.

The highest informal vote in an individual electorate was recorded in Lindsay, where it reached 11.77%. The seat of Blaxland, once held by former Labor prime minister Paul Keating, had 11.55%, the second highest.

The Victorian seat of Kooyong recorded the lowest informal vote of any of the country’s 150 electorates – just 1.99%. Kooyong was once held by former Liberal prime minister Sir Robert Menzies. [Read more…]


Undecided Seats: Turnbull Edges Towards Narrow Victory

11.45pm – A path to a narrow victory for the Turnbull government emerged in today’s counting of votes for seats in the House of Representatives.

The five undecided seats in which the Coalition previously led have now been listed as settled: Gilmore, Chisholm, Dunkley, Barker and Grey. In all of these the Liberal Party’s lead grew as postal and other declaration votes were added to the count. In the case of the latter two South Australian electorates, where the Nick Xenophon Team emerged as the main opposition to the Liberals, the counting of two-candidate-preferred has confirmed the seats as retained by the Liberals.

Similarly, I have removed Melbourne Ports from the list of undecided seats. Preference flows mean that the seat is not likely to see the Greens take second place ahead of the ALP.

However, counting today revealed that the Queensland electorate of Flynn has come into play. This seat had been classified as an ALP gain but counting of postal votes saw a large drop in the ALP’s lead, from 1824 to 1065. LNP officials are said to be very confident that a 65% flow of preferences from postal votes makes the seat winnable.

These changes mean that the Coalition now has 73 seats, the ALP 66, and Others 5. [Read more…]


Update On Undecided Seats – Hung Parliament Looks Most Likely

11.39pm – Today I have removed 4 seats from the list of undecideds.

The 4 seats no longer considered undecided are: Robertson, Batman, La Trobe and Petrie.

Their removal means that the Coalition now has 68 seats, the ALP 66, and Others 5.

Of the 11 remaining seats in doubt, the Coalition is ahead in 5 and the ALP is ahead in 6. If these seats were to stay that way, the Coalition would finish with 73 seats, the ALP 72, and Others 5. The government would be three seats short of an absolute majority and we would have a hung Parliament.

Many media reports say there are only 8 or 9 doubtful seats. I have included Barker and Grey because the Australian Electoral Commission has not finished the reordering of two-party-preferred votes (Labor v. Liberal) to two-candidate-preferred (Liberal v. Xenophon). Both seats are likely to remain with the Liberals.

I have also included Melbourne Ports in the list of doubtful seats. There is a possibility that the full distribution of preferences could see the Greens overtake the ALP and move into second place. ALP preferences could then elect either the Green or Liberal candidate. The incumbent Labor MP, Michael Danby, issued a how-to-vote card that placed the Liberal candidate ahead of the Green. This adds an extra complication to predictions for this seat.

Ten seats in the table all have a margin of close-to or less than 1000 votes. Most have a margin of less than 1%. Experience shows that a margin of 1000 votes is unlikely to be reversed by postal, absent and declaration votes, although this varies widely between electorates.

There is a case to be made that Forde is the only doubtful seat left, but such a judgment is somewhat premature. The picture should be clearer by the end of Wednesday, July 6, after the counting of more postal votes.
[Read more…]