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Mike Kelly (ALP – Eden-Monaro) – Second Maiden Speech

Mike Kelly, who regained the NSW electorate of Eden-Monaro at the July election, has delivered his second maiden speech to the House of Representatives.

Kelly

Kelly, 56, previously represented the seat from 2007 until 2013. He served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the Gillard government from 2010 and was the Minister for Defence Materiel in the Gillard and Rudd governments in 2013. Prior to entering parliament, he had a long career in the Australian Defence Force as a military lawyer. [Read more…]


Seats Changing Hands At The 2016 Federal Election

A total of 19 seats changed hands at the 2016 House of Representatives elections.

The Coalition went into the election holding 90 seats and finished up with 76. It lost 17 (16 to the ALP and one to the Nick Xenophon Team). One seat moved from the Liberal Party to The Nationals. The Liberals won one seat from the ALP.

The ALP went into the election holding 55 seats and ended up with 69. It won 16 from the Coalition, lost one to the Liberals, and lost one to the redistribution in NSW.

As in 2013, there are 5 crossbenchers. The Greens and Katter’s Australian Party retained their seats, whilst the two independents (Wilkie and McGowan) increased their majorities. Clive Palmer did not contest Fairfax and it returned to the LNP. The Nick Xenophon Team took Mayo from the Liberal Party.

The 19 seats that changed hands represent 12.66% of the House. 131 seats (87.33%) did not change hands, demonstrating once again the stability and predictability of Australian voting habits and the narrow range of seats that change governments. In the 2013 election, 22 seats (14.66%) changed hands. [Read more…]


Which Seats Have Changed Hands So Far In The Federal Election?

This table shows the House of Representatives seats that have changed hands at the 2016 federal election.

Note: Counting has not concluded. Other seats may be added to this list in coming days. The swing percentages shown below may alter slightly. Details of the latest counting is here.

So far, 16 seats have changed hands. The Liberal/LNP/CLP have lost 13 seats, 11 to the ALP, one to the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) and one to The Nationals. The ALP has lost one seat to the Liberals.

The Coalition parties went into the election holding 90 seats, the ALP 55, with 5 crossbenchers.

In NSW, the seat of Barton, whilst held by the Liberal Party, was notionally Labor (4.4%), following a redistribution. The seat of Dobell, whilst held by the Liberal Party, was nationally Labor (0.2%). The seat of Paterson, whilst held by the Liberal Party, was notionally Labor (0.4%). [Read more…]


Coalition Edging Towards 90 Seats As Election Counting Continues

It now appears likely that the Liberal-Nationals coalition will hold 90 seats in the House of Representatives, as Labor’s position deteriorates in several undecided electorates.

The ALP’s position in Barton, Eden-Monaro and McEwen has worsened over the past two days of counting. The ALP is behind by 643 votes in Barton, 591 votes in Eden-Monaro and 116 votes in McEwen.

However, in the Queensland seat of Capricornia, the ALP remains ahead and has stretched its lead to 268 votes. Capricornia and McEwen are now the only results in serious doubt.

In Reid, the ALP’s position has worsened since Monday and it is now 928 votes behind. It is 722 votes behind in Dobell. Both seats are now presumed to be Liberal gains.

The ALP began the election with 72 seats. It has lost 14 seats so far: Bass, Braddon, Lyons, Deakin, La Trobe, Corangamite, Hindmarsh, Petrie, Dobell, Robertson, Page, Lindsay, Banks and Reid. If it holds Capricornia but loses Barton, Eden-Monaro and McEwen it will finish up with 55 seats in the House of Representatives, or 36.66% of the total.

This would constitute the ALP’s 10th worst defeat in the 41 federal elections held since 1910. It did worse in terms of seats at the elections of 1934, 1919, 1996, 1966, 1925, 1977, 1917, 1975 and 1931.

The interest on the Coalition side now centres on Indi and Fairfax. Clive Palmer is now 1,411 votes ahead of his LNP rival in Fairfax. His lead has been quite stable since Monday and he now seems certain to win.

In Indi, the independent Cathy McGowan is 1,449 votes ahead and now seems assured of victory. Her lead was consolidated yesterday after the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) corrected a clerical error which had seen 1000 votes incorrectly given to the Liberal incumbent, Sophie Mirabella.

Whilst the clerical error may seem like sloppy work on the part of the AEC, its rectification is in fact a tribute to the fail-safe measures the Commission has in place. By reconciling the number of ballot papers issued with those returned and monitoring Senate numbers, clerical errors are quickly identified.

The Coalition began with 73 seats. It has gained the 14 seats listed above, plus the formerly independent electorates of New England and Lyne. If we assume it has lost Fairfax and Indi, but won Barton, Eden-Monaro and McEwen, it will have 90 seats in the new House.

Sophie Mirabella will have the dubious distinction of being the only incumbent Coalition MP to be defeated. [Read more…]