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ALP Claims Hindmarsh, Now Holds 68 Seats; LNP Takes Lead In Herbert, Last Undecided Seat

10.50pm – The ALP today claimed victory in the South Australian electorate of Hindmarsh, bringing its total to 68 seats.

In the only remaining undecided seat, the LNP took the lead for the first time in the Queensland electorate of Herbert, ahead of the ALP by just 34 votes.

GeorganasOpposition Leader Bill Shorten was in Adelaide to claim victory in Hindmarsh with Steve Georganas (pictured), who returns to parliament as the member for the seat he represented between 2004 and 2013. At the close of counting today, the ALP’s lead was 588 votes, or 50.31%. There are 5,514 votes still to count but there is no doubt that Georganas will win. There are only 791 postal votes remaining and 2,663 absentee votes. The ALP is securing 56.06% of the latter.

In Herbert, the ALP’s lead was finally overtaken by the LNP today and finished at 34 votes. The sitting member, Ewen Jones, now seems certain to be returned for his third term. There are now just 3,197 votes left to count: 1,089 postal, 863 declaration pre-poll, 969 provisional and 276 absent. The LNP is easily winning postals and declaration pre-poll votes, whilst the ALP is just ahead on absents with 51.53%.

If the Coalition wins Herbert, the final tally for the 45th Parliament will be: Coalition 77, ALP 68, Others 5. This is a Coalition majority of four over all other groups and a majority of three on the floor of the House, after a Speaker has been provided. In addition, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has secured agreements with three crossbenchers – Bob Katter, Cathy McGowan and Andrew Wilkie – for support on Supply and Confidence. [Read more…]


Turnbull Seems Set For Floor Majority Of Three In 45th Parliament

11.50pm – The two remaining undecided seats in the 2016 federal election are no closer to finalisation, following another day’s counting. However, the government is now likely to have a majority of three in the new House.

The ALP’s lead in Hindmarsh remains unchanged at 582 votes. There are 6,125 votes still to count: 2,644 absents, 1,599 provisionals, 1,130 declaration pre-poll, and 752 postals. There is no change to the expectation that Steve Georganas will regain the seat he previously held for the ALP.

In Herbert, the ALP’s lead narrowed again, from 178 votes to 66. There are 6,016 votes left to count: 2,696 postal, 1,747 declaration pre-poll, 1,002 provisional and 571 absent. The ALP is only besting the LNP on absent votes and there is now an expectation that this seat is about to move decisively to the LNP.

If the ALP wins Hindmarsh and the Coalition wins Herbert, the final tally for the 45th Parliament will be: Coalition 77, ALP 68, Others 5. This is a Coalition majority of four over all other groups and a majority of three on the floor of the House, after a Speaker has been provided. [Read more…]


Coalition Secures Absolute Majority Of 76; Labor Claims Cowan; Just Two Seats Still Undecided

11.45pm – As election counting entered its second week today, the ALP claimed victory in Cowan, whilst the LNP drew further ahead in Capricornia and Flynn, securing an absolute majority of 76 seats for the Turnbull government.

The ALP still leads in Hindmarsh and Herbert, the two remaining undecided seats in the House of Representatives.

In Cowan, the ALP’s Anne Aly claimed victory and will become the first female Muslim to be elected to the House. A batch of votes that had been wrongly counted for the Liberals delivered several hundred votes to Aly. Her 946 vote lead, combined with preference flows means that Cowan can now be taken out of the doubtful list. There are 6,942 votes still to count. The ALP now has a confirmed 67 seats.

The ALP’s lead in Hindmarsh remains at 583 votes. This seat will probably come out of the doubtful list in the next day or two, since the ALP lead seems firm. There are 5,307 votes still to count. The Liberals’ 53.81% advantage in postals is offset by the ALP’s 56.06% advantage in absentees.

In the Queensland seats of Capricornia and Flynn, the LNP extended its leads. Both seats have now been removed from the doubtful list.

In Capricornia, the LNP lifted its weekend lead of 148 votes to 691. There are 3,475 votes to count and it is clear that the LNP will retain the seat. A traditionally Labor electorate, Capricornia was lost by the ALP in 1975 and 1996. In both cases, it was regained at the following election. Michelle Landry becomes the first non-Labor member for Capricornia to win consecutive elections since Henry Pearce, who held it between 1949 and 1961. Pearce is now 98 years old and is one of only two surviving members from the 1949 parliament. [Read more…]


As Turnbull Claims Election Victory, Coalition Seems On Track For 76 Seats

11.55pm – Eight days after the Federal Election, Malcolm Turnbull today claimed victory, following a concession by Bill Shorten.

In weekend counting, the LNP’s position has strengthened in two seats, as has the ALP’s. If the current leads hold, the Coalition will end up holding 76 seats, the ALP 69, and Others 5.

There now seems to be general agreement that the ALP is likely to take the electorates of Hindmarsh and Cowan, with the possibility of securing Herbert.

In Hindmarsh, the ALP leads by 348, with 7,766 declaration votes still to count. In Cowan, the ALP leads by 487, with 8,476 to count. Whilst narrow, these leads have firmed and the ALP is almost certain to retain both seats.

In the Queensland seats of Capricornia and Flynn, the LNP seems well-placed to hold both. In Capricornia, the LNP took the lead on Saturday and is now ahead by 148 votes, with 7,186 declaration votes still to count. The LNP is winning 58.57% of postals and 50.38% of absentees. In Flynn, the LNP also took the lead on Saturday and is now ahead by 391 votes, with 5,783 votes to count. The LNP is winning 63.54% of postals but the ALP is winning 54.64% of absentees. [Read more…]


Government’s Victory Assured But Still No Definite Results In Key Seats

10.00pm – The Turnbull government’s position improved in counting of House of Representatives seats today but an absolute majority of 76 seats is still not confirmed.

There is no change to the standing of the various parties tonight. The Coalition has 74 seats, the ALP 66, and Others 5.

The ALP remains ahead in all of the 5 remaining doubtful seats – Capricornia, Flynn, Herbert, Hindmarsh and Cowan. If these leads are maintained, the Coalition will finish with 74 seats, the ALP 71, and Others 5.

However, the ALP’s lead narrowed in 4 seats. In Capricornia, the ALP’s lead fell from 476 to 174. A total of 9,868 declaration votes remain to be counted, including 4,711 postals and 3,268 absentee votes. The LNP has been receiving 57.54% of postal votes, but no absentees have yet been counted. The ALP received 50.67% of absentees in the last election.

In Flynn, the ALP’s lead has shrunk from 646 to just 7. There are 7,734 declaration votes still to count, including 4,640 postals and 1,728 absentees. The LNP has been receiving 63.93% of postals. In 2013, the LNP also garnered 57.19% of absentees. At some point, Flynn is expected to move into the Coalition’s column. [Read more…]


Turnbull Government Returned To Office, But Majority Or Minority Status Still Not Clear

11.52pm – Counting in undecided seats brought the Turnbull government closer to re-election today, although the ultimate prize remains tantalisingly out of reach for yet another day.

There seems litle doubt now that Forde is a gain for the Liberal National Party in Queensland. After taking the lead yesterday, the LNP was up by 687 votes tonight. The trend in the counting of postal, absentee, provisional and declaration pre-poll votes is clear. Forde has been taken out of the Undecided table below.

This change means that the Coalition now has 74 seats, the ALP 66, and Others 5.

Of the 5 remaining seats in doubt, the ALP is ahead in all 5 (Capricornia, Flynn, Herbert, Hindmarsh and Cowan). If these leads are maintained, the Coalition will finish with 74 seats, the ALP 71, and Others 5.

However, the ALP’s lead has been shrinking in each seat following each day’s counting. In Hindmarsh, for example, the ALP fell to an 8-vote lead today before jumping back up to 68. The figures are shown in the table below.

The most dramatic change in the past 24 hours has been in Flynn, where postal votes are flowing 62.78% to the LNP and the ALP’s lead has been cut from 1,824 votes to 646 over two days of counting. [Read more…]


Undecided Seats: Turnbull Edges Towards Narrow Victory

11.45pm – A path to a narrow victory for the Turnbull government emerged in today’s counting of votes for seats in the House of Representatives.

The five undecided seats in which the Coalition previously led have now been listed as settled: Gilmore, Chisholm, Dunkley, Barker and Grey. In all of these the Liberal Party’s lead grew as postal and other declaration votes were added to the count. In the case of the latter two South Australian electorates, where the Nick Xenophon Team emerged as the main opposition to the Liberals, the counting of two-candidate-preferred has confirmed the seats as retained by the Liberals.

Similarly, I have removed Melbourne Ports from the list of undecided seats. Preference flows mean that the seat is not likely to see the Greens take second place ahead of the ALP.

However, counting today revealed that the Queensland electorate of Flynn has come into play. This seat had been classified as an ALP gain but counting of postal votes saw a large drop in the ALP’s lead, from 1824 to 1065. LNP officials are said to be very confident that a 65% flow of preferences from postal votes makes the seat winnable.

These changes mean that the Coalition now has 73 seats, the ALP 66, and Others 5. [Read more…]