2016 Primary Vote Winners, Preference Vote Losers

There were 16 seats in the 2016 federal election where the primary vote leaders were defeated after the full distribution of preferences.

The ALP benefited in 15 seats and the Nick Xenophon Team in one. In 14 seats, (7 held by the ALP and 7 by the Coalition), the coalition candidate led on primary votes but the seat was won by the ALP after preferences. In one seat, the Liberal lead was overtaken by the Xenophon candidate. In another, the ALP overcame a Greens lead.

The 16 seats were spread across the states: Queensland (4), Victoria (3), South Australia (3), New South Wales (2), Western Australia (2) and Tasmania (2).

Overall, 48 (32%) of the 150 House of Representatives electorates were decided on primary votes, whilst 102 (68%) required preference distribution to obtain a winner.

It is worth noting that 86 of the 102 electorates were won after preferences by the candidates who led the primary vote count. Even with preferences, a primary vote lead is difficult to overcome. [Read more…]


Seats That Swung To The Coalition In The 2016 Federal Election

As counting proceeds in the 2016 House of Representatives elections, it appears that only 16 seats resisted the nationwide swing to the ALP.

Fifteen seats held by the Liberal Party and 1 seat held by The Nationals recorded swings away from the ALP. Thirteen of these seats were already held by the Coalition.

The swings range from 0.09% in Cook to 3.04% in Deakin.

The Liberal Party won just one seat from the ALP, the Melbourne electorate of Chisholm, with a swing of 2.91%.

The national two-party-preferred swing against the Coalition currently stands at 3.16%. Every State and Territory swung to the ALP, ranging from 0.72% in the Australian Capital Territory to 8.90% in South Australia.

The Coalition won the State two-party-preferred contest in NSW (50.42%), Queensland (53.95%) and Western Australia (54.54%). [Read more…]


Terri Butler (ALP-Griffith) – First Speech

Terri Butler was elected as the ALP member for Griffith at a by-election on February 8.

Butler

Butler, an industrial lawyer with Maurice Blackburn, replaced the former prime minister, Kevin Rudd, who had represented the electorate since 1998. Aside from one term from 1996-98, the seat has been represented by the ALP since 1977.

Griffith is a mostly residential electorate in southern Brisbane. The main suburbs include Balmoral, Bulimba, Camp Hill, Carina Heights, Coorparoo, Dutton Park, East Brisbane, Greenslopes, Highgate Hill, Hawthorne, Kangaroo Point, Morningside, Norman Park, Seven Hills, South Brisbane, Woolloongabba and parts of Annerley, Cannon Hill, Carina, Holland Park, Holland Park West, Mount Gravatt East, Murarrie, Tarragindi and West End.

This is Butler’s maiden speech to the House of Representatives.

  • Listen to Butler (22m)
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Hansard transcript of Terri Butler’s maiden speech to the House of Representatives.

Butler

Ms BUTLER (Griffith) (09:59): Madam Speaker, I acknowledge the Ngunnawal and Ngambri peoples, the custodians of the land on which we meet. I pay my respects to elders past and present. I am honoured today to come into this chamber as the elected representative for the people of Griffith, on Brisbane’s south side, so I also pay my respects to the first nations people of that land, the Ugarapul, Yuggera, Jagera and Turrbal peoples. [Read more…]


Terri Butler Wins Griffith By-Election For ALP; Status Quo Result Sees 0.68% Swing To Liberals

Terri Butler will become the new Labor member for Griffith, following her by-election victory in the Brisbane-based electorate vacated by former prime minister Kevin Rudd.

Butler

At the close of counting tonight, Butler had recorded a two-party-preferred vote of 52.33%. This is a swing against the ALP of 0.68% since the September 2013 general election. [Read more…]


Abbott Launches Liberal Party Campaign For Griffith By-Election

The Liberal Party has launched its campaign for next weekend’s by-election in Griffith.

Glasson

The Liberal National candidate for the Brisbane electorate, Dr. Bill Glasson, is contesting the by-election caused by the retirement of former prime minister Kevin Rudd who held the seat for 15 years. [Read more…]


Bill Shorten Launches Terri Butler’s ALP Campaign For Griffith By-Election

Bill Shorten has launched the ALP’s campaign for the Griffith by-election with a speech that focussed on the performance of the Abbott and Newman governments.

Shorten

Shorten said Griffith needed “a local champion on the national stage”. He said the Abbott government “came to power saying health and education were safe” but now says through its Commission of Audit everything “is on the table”. [Read more…]


Shorten Campaigns In Griffith

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten was in the Brisbane electorate of Griffith again today, campaigning for the February 8 by-election to replace Kevin Rudd.

Shorten

The ALP has most to lose from a poor result in Griffith. No government has won a seat off the official opposition since 1920. Whilst victory for the ALP candidate, Terri Butler, will be portrayed as evidence of a struggling Abbott government and an unpopular Newman government, a defeat for the ALP would reduce it to 54 seats in the House and jolt it back to the reality of its poor electoral position following the 2013 federal election. [Read more…]