Terri Butler Wins Griffith By-Election For ALP; Status Quo Result Sees 0.68% Swing To Liberals

Terri Butler will become the new Labor member for Griffith, following her by-election victory in the Brisbane-based electorate vacated by former prime minister Kevin Rudd.

Butler

At the close of counting tonight, Butler had recorded a two-party-preferred vote of 52.33%. This is a swing against the ALP of 0.68% since the September 2013 general election. [Read more…]


LNP Running Anti-Union Campaign In Griffith By-Election

This is an advertisement posted on YouTube by the Liberal National Party for this weekend’s Griffith by-election.

The by-election is to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of former prime minister Kevin Rudd. The ALP holds Griffith with a margin of 3.01% or 5,201 votes. There was a 5.45% two-party swing against Rudd in 2013 and a 3.86% swing in 2010. Rudd polled 53.09% of the primary vote in 2007 but this had declined to 40.36% in 2013. [Read more…]


Abbott Launches Liberal Party Campaign For Griffith By-Election

The Liberal Party has launched its campaign for next weekend’s by-election in Griffith.

Glasson

The Liberal National candidate for the Brisbane electorate, Dr. Bill Glasson, is contesting the by-election caused by the retirement of former prime minister Kevin Rudd who held the seat for 15 years. [Read more…]


Bill Shorten Launches Terri Butler’s ALP Campaign For Griffith By-Election

Bill Shorten has launched the ALP’s campaign for the Griffith by-election with a speech that focussed on the performance of the Abbott and Newman governments.

Shorten

Shorten said Griffith needed “a local champion on the national stage”. He said the Abbott government “came to power saying health and education were safe” but now says through its Commission of Audit everything “is on the table”. [Read more…]


Shorten Campaigns In Griffith

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten was in the Brisbane electorate of Griffith again today, campaigning for the February 8 by-election to replace Kevin Rudd.

Shorten

The ALP has most to lose from a poor result in Griffith. No government has won a seat off the official opposition since 1920. Whilst victory for the ALP candidate, Terri Butler, will be portrayed as evidence of a struggling Abbott government and an unpopular Newman government, a defeat for the ALP would reduce it to 54 seats in the House and jolt it back to the reality of its poor electoral position following the 2013 federal election. [Read more…]


Eleven Candidates To Contest Griffith By-Election

Eleven candidates have nominated for the Griffith by-election to be held on February 8.

This is the same number of candidates who contested the seat at the 2013 federal election. Kevin Rudd won the seat for the ALP last year but resigned from Parliament on November 22.

The candidates, in the order they will appear on the ballot paper, are:

  1. Timothy LawrenceStable Population Party
  2. Geoff EbbsThe Greens
  3. Christopher David WilliamsFamily First Party
  4. Karel BoeleIndependent
  5. Anthony AckroydBullet Train for Australia
  6. Anne ReidSecular Party of Australia
  7. Terri ButlerAustralian Labor Party
  8. Melanie Rose ThomasPirate Party Australia
  9. Travis James WindsorIndependent
  10. Ray SawyerKatter’s Australian Party
  11. Bill GlassonLiberal National Party of Queensland

Ebbs, Reid and Glasson all contested the seat last year. Sawyer contested Fairfax.

To the extent that a donkey vote exists, the order of names on the ballot paper favours the ALP.

The LNP candidate, former AMA President Bill Glasson, needs a swing of 3.01% to take the seat from the ALP. The ALP has won the seat at every federal election since 1977, except for 1996. Kevin Rudd held it at every federal election from 1998.

History suggests the ALP will retain the seat. Since 1901, a government has only taken a seat from the opposition in a by-election on one occasion.