MPs Who Won Their Seats On First Preferences In The 2016 Federal Election

Just under a third of the seats in the House of Representatives were decided on first preference (primary) votes, at the 2016 Federal Election.

By definition, these seats are the most secure for the various parties, since preference distribution cannot change the result. The winner has already secured an absolute majority of at least 50%+1 over every other candidate.

Of the 150 electorates, 48 (32%) were won on the primary vote. There were 53 such seats (35%) at the 2013 election. In 2004, 89 seats (59%) were decided on first preferences.

The Liberal Party was most successful, winning 27 of the 48 seats (56%), including 12 in NSW. The Liberal wins covered 4 states.

The Nationals won 5 seats (10%), including 3 in NSW, giving the coalition 32, or 67% of the total.

The ALP won 16 (33%) of the seats, including 10 in NSW. It won 6 seats in Victoria, but failed to win any more in other states or territories.

Seats Won On Primary Votes – 2016 Federal Election
Party NSW Vic Qld WA Total
Liberal Party
12
8
4
3
27
The Nationals
3
2
5
Australian Labor Party
10
6
16
TOTAL
25
16
4
3
48

 
NSW was the only state to have a majority of seats (25 of 47, or 53%) won on primary votes. In Victoria, 16 seats out of 37 (43%) were won on first preferences. Western Australia recorded 19% and Queensland 13%.

The two smallest states, South Australia and Tasmania, had no seats decided on primaries. The four seats in the two territories all went to preferences. [Read more…]


John Forrest (Nat-Mallee) 1993 How-To-Vote Card

This is the how-to-vote card issued by the National Party in Mallee at the 1993 federal election.

John Forrest won the election and became just the third member to hold the seat in 44 years.

Mallee, usually one of the safest coalition seats in the nation, had been represented by Peter Fisher since 1972. At its establishment in 1949, the seat was held by Winton Turnbull.

Because the Liberal/National coalition agreement allows both parties to contest a seat when a sitting member retires, Forrest faced a battle at the 1993 election. The National Party’s primary vote fell by 31.66% to 37.66%, with the Liberal candidate Adrian Kidd polling 32.48%. The ALP’s John Zigouras polled 26.52% and directed his preferences to Kidd. After preferences, Forrest won the seat by just 736 votes, or 50.50%.

At the next election in 1996, without a Liberal candidate, Forrest polled 69.45% of the primary vote and 73.70% of the two-party-preferred vote.

Forrest served for twenty years and retired in 2013. [Read more…]


Andrew Broad (Nats – Mallee) – First Speech

Andrew Broad was elected as The Nationals member for Mallee at the 2013 federal election.

Broad

Broad replaced John Forrest who represented the seat since 1993. Broad is only the fourth man, all Nationals, to represent the electorate since its creation in 1949.

Because Forrest retired, the Coalition agreement permitted the Liberals to nominate a candidate. The Nationals polled 38.76% of the primary vote to the Liberal Party’s 27.22%. After preferences, Broad won with 56.21% of the two-candidate-preferred vote. Measured against the ALP, his two-party-preferred vote was 73.66%, in keeping with Mallee’s status as one of the safest Coalition seats in the nation. [Read more…]


John Forrest, Nationals Member For Mallee, Announces Retirement

John Forrest, The Nationals member for Mallee since 1993, has announced he will retire from the House of Representatives at this year’s federal election.

ForrestMallee, in north-western Victoria, is the safest Coalition electorate in the nation. Forrest won it in 2010 with 74.41% of the two-party-preferred vote. He secured 66.79% of the primary vote. The ALP polled 19.89%.

There has been a redistribution in Victoria. Mallee’s margin is now estimated to be 23.3%.

Mallee includes the towns of Mildura in the north, Warracknabeal, St Arnaud and Horsham in the south, and Swan Hill and Kerang in the east. It has been held by The Nationals, formerly the Country Party, since its creation in 1949. Forrest is only its third member in that time.

Forrest is the thirteenth member of the House of Representatives to opt for retirement at this year’s election.

It is not clear at this stage if the Liberal Party will nominate a candidate in Mallee. Three-cornered contests involving the Coalition usually only occur when a seat is vacant.

Text of statement published on John Forrest’s website:

The Nationals thank John Forrest

The Nationals Federal President, Mrs Christine Ferguson has paid tribute to John Forrest following his announcement today that he will retire from the Federal Parliament after 20 years of outstanding service at the next Federal election. [Read more…]