Damian Drum (Nats-Murray) – Maiden Speech

Damian Drum, the Nationals member for Murray, has delivered his maiden speech to the House of Representatives.

Drum

Drum, 56, won the northern Victorian electorate from the Liberal Party at the July 2 double dissolution election. Sharman Stone held the seat for 20 years from 1996. The Nationals last held it with Bruce Lloyd (1971-96). [Read more…]


MPs Who Won Their Seats On First Preferences In The 2016 Federal Election

Just under a third of the seats in the House of Representatives were decided on first preference (primary) votes, at the 2016 Federal Election.

By definition, these seats are the most secure for the various parties, since preference distribution cannot change the result. The winner has already secured an absolute majority of at least 50%+1 over every other candidate.

Of the 150 electorates, 48 (32%) were won on the primary vote. There were 53 such seats (35%) at the 2013 election. In 2004, 89 seats (59%) were decided on first preferences.

The Liberal Party was most successful, winning 27 of the 48 seats (56%), including 12 in NSW. The Liberal wins covered 4 states.

The Nationals won 5 seats (10%), including 3 in NSW, giving the coalition 32, or 67% of the total.

The ALP won 16 (33%) of the seats, including 10 in NSW. It won 6 seats in Victoria, but failed to win any more in other states or territories.

Seats Won On Primary Votes – 2016 Federal Election
Party NSW Vic Qld WA Total
Liberal Party
12
8
4
3
27
The Nationals
3
2
5
Australian Labor Party
10
6
16
TOTAL
25
16
4
3
48

 
NSW was the only state to have a majority of seats (25 of 47, or 53%) won on primary votes. In Victoria, 16 seats out of 37 (43%) were won on first preferences. Western Australia recorded 19% and Queensland 13%.

The two smallest states, South Australia and Tasmania, had no seats decided on primaries. The four seats in the two territories all went to preferences. [Read more…]


Seats Changing Hands At The 2016 Federal Election

A total of 19 seats changed hands at the 2016 House of Representatives elections.

The Coalition went into the election holding 90 seats and finished up with 76. It lost 17 (16 to the ALP and one to the Nick Xenophon Team). One seat moved from the Liberal Party to The Nationals. The Liberals won one seat from the ALP.

The ALP went into the election holding 55 seats and ended up with 69. It won 16 from the Coalition, lost one to the Liberals, and lost one to the redistribution in NSW.

As in 2013, there are 5 crossbenchers. The Greens and Katter’s Australian Party retained their seats, whilst the two independents (Wilkie and McGowan) increased their majorities. Clive Palmer did not contest Fairfax and it returned to the LNP. The Nick Xenophon Team took Mayo from the Liberal Party.

The 19 seats that changed hands represent 12.66% of the House. 131 seats (87.33%) did not change hands, demonstrating once again the stability and predictability of Australian voting habits and the narrow range of seats that change governments. In the 2013 election, 22 seats (14.66%) changed hands. [Read more…]


Seats That Swung To The Coalition In The 2016 Federal Election

As counting proceeds in the 2016 House of Representatives elections, it appears that only 16 seats resisted the nationwide swing to the ALP.

Fifteen seats held by the Liberal Party and 1 seat held by The Nationals recorded swings away from the ALP. Thirteen of these seats were already held by the Coalition.

The swings range from 0.09% in Cook to 3.04% in Deakin.

The Liberal Party won just one seat from the ALP, the Melbourne electorate of Chisholm, with a swing of 2.91%.

The national two-party-preferred swing against the Coalition currently stands at 3.16%. Every State and Territory swung to the ALP, ranging from 0.72% in the Australian Capital Territory to 8.90% in South Australia.

The Coalition won the State two-party-preferred contest in NSW (50.42%), Queensland (53.95%) and Western Australia (54.54%). [Read more…]


Informal Vote Declines In Federal Election; Sydney Again Records Highest Rates

The percentage of informal votes in the 2016 House of Representatives elections dropped by 0.86% to 5.05%.

The informal vote is the lowest since 2004, when it was 5.2%. Informals declined in every State and Territory, apart from the Northern Territory, which has recorded the highest rate of 7.35%, an increase of 1.05%.

Other than NSW and the NT, all States and Territories recorded an informal vote of less than 5%. In NSW, the informal percentage was 6.17%.

Whilst the highest informal vote in an individual seat outside NSW is 8.84% in Murray (Vic), NSW has 9 seats with an informal vote above 8%. As in previous elections, these are all Labor-held electorates in Sydney with high proportions of non-English speaking residents.

The highest informal vote in an individual electorate was recorded in Lindsay, where it reached 11.77%. The seat of Blaxland, once held by former Labor prime minister Paul Keating, had 11.55%, the second highest.

The Victorian seat of Kooyong recorded the lowest informal vote of any of the country’s 150 electorates – just 1.99%. Kooyong was once held by former Liberal prime minister Sir Robert Menzies. [Read more…]


Which Seats Have Changed Hands So Far In The Federal Election?

This table shows the House of Representatives seats that have changed hands at the 2016 federal election.

Note: Counting has not concluded. Other seats may be added to this list in coming days. The swing percentages shown below may alter slightly. Details of the latest counting is here.

So far, 16 seats have changed hands. The Liberal/LNP/CLP have lost 13 seats, 11 to the ALP, one to the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) and one to The Nationals. The ALP has lost one seat to the Liberals.

The Coalition parties went into the election holding 90 seats, the ALP 55, with 5 crossbenchers.

In NSW, the seat of Barton, whilst held by the Liberal Party, was notionally Labor (4.4%), following a redistribution. The seat of Dobell, whilst held by the Liberal Party, was nationally Labor (0.2%). The seat of Paterson, whilst held by the Liberal Party, was notionally Labor (0.4%). [Read more…]


Election Gets Willing As Preference Deals Announced; Turnbull Says Libs Will Put Greens Last

The Liberal Party has announced that it will preference the Labor Party ahead of the Greens in every electorate in the election.

The ALP has announced that it will preference the Liberal Party ahead of The Nationals in the rural seats of Murray (Vic), Durack and O’Connor (WA).

The Liberal Party decision is particularly important since it makes it very difficult for the Greens to make up ground in Batman, Wills and Melbourne Ports (Vic), and in Sydney and Grayndler (NSW). The decision all but guarantees that the ALP candidates will win these seats. Late last week, the Greens announced that they would preference the ALP ahead of the Liberals in the inner-city Melbourne seats.

The decision could make Melbourne difficult for the Greens member Adam Bandt, who will need to maintain his primary vote to overcome the lack of Liberal preferences.

The ALP’s preferences in the three rural seats will also prevent The Nationals increasing their numbers in the Coalition, relative to the Liberal Party. ALP preferences will be of particular value in Murray, where the new Liberal candidate, Duncan McGauchie, faces a strong Nationals contender, Damian Drum. [Read more…]