So When Will The Next Election Be Held?

The Parliamentary Library has published a research paper setting out Federal, State and Local election dates over the next few years.

According to the paper, the earliest possible date for a joint House of Representatives and half-Senate election is August 4, 2018. The last possible date for such an election is May 18, 2019. Assuming no unforeseen events, the next federal election is almost certain to fall between these dates.

The last possible date for a double dissolution is May 4, 2019. A double dissolution of the parliament cannot be called later than February 27, 2019.

The paper shows that there will only be two state or territory elections over the next eighteen months: in the ACT on October 15, 2016 and in Western Australia on March 11, 2017. [Read more…]


South Australia Likely To Lose A Seat In Looming Redistribution

A population decrease in South Australia is likely to see the State’s representation drop from 11 seats to 10 in a redistribution during the life of the current parliament.

According to a research paper from the Parliamentary Library, the next round of population figures will likely trigger a redistribution in South Australia, based on the “representation entitlement trigger”.

This could mean that the next election will see the numbers in the House of Representatives fall from 150 to 149.

Redistributions are also due during the term of the 45th Parliament in Victoria, Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. The number of electoral divisions in each of these will remain unchanged. [Read more…]


New Research Paper On House By-Elections

The Parliamentary Library has released a new research paper on House of Representatives by-elections since 1901.

The paper is titled: House of Representatives by-elections: 1901-2015. It is writted by Stephen Barber of the Statistics and Mapping Section.

The paper is displayed below, in accordance with its Creative Commons licence.

The paper’s updated statistics show that the party complexion of a seat has changed on just 35 occasions out of 149 by-elections. The average two-party preferred swing against the government of the day has been 4.0 per cent.

Other data shows that that the average number of nominations for by-elections has grown from 2.2 to 11.6. [Read more…]


Federal Election Results 1901-2014

This is a research paper from the Parliamentary Library with statistics on Australian Federal Elections since 1901.

The paper is part of the Research Paper Series 2014-15 and was written by Stephen Barber and Sue Johnson of the Statistics and Mapping Section of the Parliamentary Library.

The paper is shown under the terms of its Creative Commons licence.

It does not contains result of individual seats, but includes aggregate and state-by-state statistics for both Houses on primary votes, two-party-preferred votes, voter turnout, informal votes. It provides state-of-the-party tables for each House and Senate election since 1901. [Read more…]


Victorian Election 1999 – Scott Bennett & Gerard Newman

This is a research paper on the 1999 Victorian state election.

The paper is by Scott Bennett, of the Politics and Public Administration Group, and Gerard Newman, of the Statistics Group, part of the Information and Research Services of the Department of the Parliamentary Library. [Read more…]