The New Senate: The Defeated, The Retired, The New And The Returning

There will be 14 new faces in the new Senate when it meets for the first time on August 30.

This represents 18.42% of the Senate’s 76 members. Each state has 12 senators, whilst the territories have 2 each, who serve terms concurrent with the House of Representatives. The double dissolution meant that all 76 positions were up for election on July 2.

The fourteen new senators include two (Louise Pratt and Don Farrell) who were Labor senators defeated in 2013.

Ten of the fourteen departed senators were defeated in the election, whilst four retired. [Read more…]


Government And ALP Agree On Senate Terms; First Elected To Get 6 Years

It was reported today that the government and the ALP have agreed on the allocation of terms for the new Senate.

The reports say the Coalition and the ALP have agreed that the first six elected in each state will get 6-year terms, whilst the last six will get three-year terms. This is the procedure that has been adopted following previous double dissolutions.

The ALP and the Coalition easily have the numbers to impose this decision on the Senate. Its effect is to give six-year terms to a majority of senators from the Coalition (16 of 28), ALP (13 of 24) and Nick Xenophon Team (2 of 3).

Pauline Hanson and Jacqui Lambie will also get six-year terms. Both polled a Senate quota in their own right.

Only three of the Greens’ nine senators will receive six-year terms. Each of them – Richard Di Natale (Vic), Scott Ludlam (WA) and Peter Whish-Wilson (Tas) – represents a state where the Greens won two places. The other six senators, one in each state, will all face the electorate before June 2019. This means it is all but impossible for the Greens to increase their overall numbers at the next election. Instead, they will face the danger of losing incumbents. [Read more…]


Getting Things Done In The New Senate

The Senate has 76 members. Unlike the House of Representatives, where the Speaker only votes in the event of a tie, all members vote on all matters. Therefore, the magic number to get anything done is 39.

A tied vote (38-38) is lost, so the government must have 39. Once it gets to 39 votes, everyone else has only 37.

On appearances, the new Senate is arithmetically more difficult for the Turnbull government than the one it had to deal with in the 44th Parliament. [Read more…]


One Nation Wins Two Queensland Senate Seats; Coalition Loses Ground; ALP And Greens Unchanged

The Senate results for Queensland were finalised and announced this morning.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is the big winner, securing two positions, taking its national tally to three. The Coalition has retained 5 of its 6 seats, the ALP has retained 4 and the Greens 1.

The Coalition polled 35.27% of the primary vote and secured the re-election of 5 senators – George Brandis, Matthew Canavan (Nats), James McGrath, Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan (Nats).

Joanna Lindgren, who entered the Senate in May last year, filling a casual vacancy created by the retirement of Brett Mason, has been defeated.

The ALP polled 26.35%, enough to elect 4 senators: new members Murray Watt and Anthony Chisholm, and returning members Claire Moore and Chris Ketter. Watt and Chisholm replace Jan McLucas and Joe Ludwig, who both retired.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation polled 9.19% of the vote, securing two places. Pauline Hanson will return to the parliament for the first time since she he held the lower house seat of Oxley between 1996-98. She will be joined by Malcolm Roberts.

One Nation has secured a stronger preference flow from other minor and micro parties. It now stands a reasonable chance of winning a fourth position in NSW.

The Greens polled 6.92%, re-electing Larissa Waters to a second term

Aside from Joanna Lindgren, only one other previous senator, Glenn Lazarus, was defeated. Elected in 2013 as a Palmer United Party candidate, Lazarus ran under his own banner of The Glenn Lazarus Team, polling 1.66% of the primary vote. [Read more…]


How Well Did Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Do In The Federal Election?

The tables on this page show the level of electoral support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation at the 2016 federal election.

Hanson

One Nation ran 15 candidates in the House of Representatives, 12 in Queensland and 3 in NSW. It ran a Senate ticket in each State but not in the territories.

Nationally, One Nation polled 4.26% in the Senate, including 9.03% in Queensland, where Pauline Hanson has been elected a senator. A Senate quota is 7.7% of the primary vote in a double dissolution election. Hanson secured 1.17 quotas and will win on primary votes alone. She will return to the Parliament for the first time since she lost the seat of Oxley in 1998. She won Oxley as a disendorsed Liberal candidate in 1996.

In the House of Representatives, One Nation polled 1.28% nationally and 5.48% in Queensland. Even though it only contested 12 seats, it polled the fourth highest proportion of the primary vote in Queensland, behind the LNP (43.15%), the ALP (31.43%) and the Greens (8.51%). Family First and Katter’s Australian Party took the next two places. [Read more…]


Turnbull Likely To Win Narrowly As Voters Punish Coalition; ALP Secures Nationwide Swing Of 3.18% But Falls Short

Hung Parliament Still Likely; Many Close Seats; Nationwide Swing Delivers ALP Gains; Xenophon Wins Lower House Seat; Pauline Hanson, Derryn Hinch And Jacqui Lambie Elected To Senate

TurnbullPrime Minister Malcolm Turnbull addressed Liberal supporters in Sydney last night

The Turnbull coalition government is clinging to office, following yesterday’s federal election, and may yet face a hung parliament controlled by crossbenchers not necessarily sympathetic to it. In a post-midnight speech, the Prime Minister insisted the coalition would be able to form a majority government.

A nationwide 3.18% swing towards the ALP sees the coalition leading the two-party-preferred vote with 50.01%. Every state and territory swung to the ALP, the Northern Territory leading the field with 7.37% and delivering Solomon to the ALP. The smallest swing was 0.68% in the Australian Capital Territory, where the ALP already held both seats and polled 61.73% of the two-party vote.

There was a 3.64% swing to the ALP in New South Wales. The ALP has won Banks, Barton, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Macarthur, Macquarie and Paterson.

In Victoria, the swing was 2.13% but it appears that only one seat has changed hands. The ALP lost Chisholm, the eastern suburban Melbourne electorate held since 1998 by the former Speaker, Anna Burke. The Greens came close to winning Batman and counting may yet throw Melbourne Ports into doubt for the ALP.

In Queensland, a swing of 2.75% delivered Longman to the ALP and ended the two-term career of 26-year-old Wyatt Roy. The LNP electorates of Capricornia, Forde and Petrie are too close to call. Hinkler may also be in play.

In Western Australia, a 3.82% swing has delivered the new electorate of Burt to the ALP, giving it 4 of the 16 seats.

Tasmania swung decisively by 6.33% to the ALP and it picked up 3 seats lost in 2013: Bass, Braddon and Lyons.

In South Australia, a swing of 4.44% saw two seats change hands. The ALP’s Steve Georganas regained Hindmarsh, which he lost in 2013. The Liberal Party lost the seat of Mayo to the Nick Xenophon Team. NXT may yet have a chance of taking the large country electorate of Grey.

A range of commentators last night agreed that the coalition would likely be able to form a government with 76-78 seats. The large number of close results means that it will be up to ten days before the results are clear.

*

Triumphant Shorten Says The ALP Is Back; Turnbull Delivers Late-Night Off-Key Speech To Supporters

The closeness of the count delayed the appearance of the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader. Shorten appeared first, after 11pm. He told supporters in Melbourne that the ALP was “back”. He reiterated his campaign themes and said that the ALP would save Medicare “in government or opposition”.

Malcolm Turnbull spoke to Liberal supporters at 12.30am, delivering a speech widely panned as off-key and inappropriate. Turnbull spoke at length about thuggery in the construction industry and defended his decision to call the double dissolution. He insisted that the coalition would be able to form a majority government.

  • Watch Shorten’s speech (11m)
  • Listen to Shorten (11m)
  • Watch Turnbull’s speech (16m)
  • Listen to Turnbull (16m)

*

Windsor and Oakeshott Defeated; Existing Crossbenchers Re-Elected

Tony Windsor, the former member for New England, failed to defeat Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce. Windsor polled 29.73% but Joyce won the seat outright with a primary vote of 52.09%. [Read more…]


PM Fails Australia As Racist Division Continues: Brown

As Sydney’s southern suburbs were beset by mob violence for the second day, the leader of the Australian Greens, Senator Bob Brown, said the Prime Minister had “failed the nation”.

Brown accused John Howard of engaging in “dog-whistle politics”, an allegation first levelled at the Liberal leader over his attitude to Pauline Hanson in 1996 and asylum-seekers in 2001. [Read more…]