Howard At Full Throttle

by Michelle Grattan - The Age

John Howard paced along the Yarra's banks for his constitutional yesterday, at the end of a full-throttle week packed with announcements, foreign visitors and a dash to Perth.

Howard is the busiest PM we've ever had (and the only one to turn a walk into a political statement — to voters, his heir and his opponent). He's also probably the most personally controlling. He makes Malcolm Fraser, with a reputation for having fingers in all pies, look hands-off.

We're seeing more of both traits. There is hardly a federal show these days without Punch. On Wednesday, he unveiled $1.8 billion in federal money for mental health; if he'd waited until he met the states, the publicity would have been shared. On Friday, Howard and Peter Costello jointly unveiled a report on cutting business red tape. Addressing the Victorian Liberals yesterday, the PM promised $250 million for more medical and nursing places.

Howard knows that an old government, and a PM of a certain longevity, must keep constantly on the move.

He remains well-placed politically. Still, walking in Melbourne's overcast weather, the PM might have mused on a few clouds of another sort.

The workplace changes are having a difficult start. Senior ministers are in the witness box over AWB. Relations with Indonesia are sour. The tax issue has become unruly if not unmanageable. And there's the risk that Costello's ambitions, deep frozen in December, could thaw by September.

"I do not believe … the sky will fall in next week," Howard declared just before his IR changes started. It didn't, but cowboy employers at a Cowra abattoir and a few other companies caused a nasty thunder roll. The Government was reminded that, despite its best efforts to emasculate the unions, they can still punch.

Howard and Workplace Relations Minister Kevin Andrews sent a strong message via TV to the Cowra company to back off, a point reinforced by the watchdog Office of Workplace Services. The company, caught in the national spotlight, had no practical choice. In a nice twist, the Government was embarrassingly reluctant to say whether the conduct of this employer was in fact against the law, while the unions said it was legal and showed how nasty the law was.

The abattoir case was a win for workers and unions, and the cases keep coming, with lots of publicity. The Government whips round employers to get out good news stories, forgetting good news is often not news.

This is manna for Labor. But, Kim, remember the GST and those weeks when (it sounds unbelievable now) the tax on tampons got constant headlines. The media moves on from hard luck stories when they are reprises.

Also, Labor has to stitch together a viable alternative. It has delayed its IR blueprint, due this month, until after the High Court rules on the states' challenge. One issue that is sharpening (and will be affected by the court decision) is whether a Labor government would accept the established framework of a national system. There are differences within the union movement over this. Labor would be crazy to try to turn that clock back (Beazley knows this), but that won't stop some states' righters in the union movement trying to get it to do so.

AWB is a very different sort of issue from the workplace changes. The latter affect individuals; how the changes work out has the potential to move votes. AWB is complicated and distant from the ordinary punters. People are sceptical about the Government's claim that it knew nothing, but AWB doesn't hit their jobs, taxes or benefits. "Truth" as an issue has false teeth.

However, with ministers Mark Vaile and Alexander Downer giving evidence tomorrow and Tuesday, the Government's credibility is on the line. Then will come the Cole report, and a difficult debate over what changes should be made to wheat exporting. Howard can console himself that unless his ministers are exposed as liars this week, AWB will pass as a live political problem well before the year ends. For Labor, this is a gold mine but its life is limited. Of problems currently confronting Howard, the crisis over Indonesian relations, following Australia granting protection visas to 42 West Papuan boat people, is in a category of its own. Here national interest really is at stake.

Even so, Howard's Friday concession to Indonesia was both extraordinary and a reflection of both his dominance and his determination to do whatever it takes to try to get the Indonesia relationship back onto an even keel.

The Government has been looking at border protection issues in light of the West Papuan arrivals. But immigration officials were caught offguard by his comments indicating the procedure for processing Papuan asylum seekers would be reviewed and Indonesian authorities might be involved in that procedure.

Howard says Australia will meet its international obligations, but how this change could be made without seriously prejudicing the assessment of claims, even breaching international law, has yet to be explained.

One option reportedly being looked at is for the Government to be able to make a submission on national interest grounds when a claim for refugee status is being considered. Imagine how this would go. Is an official realistically likely to hold out against a Government plea in the "national interest"?

Howard is right in the primacy he gives to the Indonesian relationship. But that he would even contemplate compromising the asylum-seeker process is evidence of what many of his actions on border protection have shown — that in these situations, human rights rank low in his priorities.

But is Labor going to give them much more priority? Beazley said that so long as Australia meets its international obligations, he is not concerned about changes to the process.

Apart from anything new it does, the Government will be relying on stronger surveillance of the Torres Strait and offshore processing of those who land on islands that were excised earlier from the Australian migration zone to deter arrivals.

Howard's Friday comments have raised Indonesian expectations. He is now faced with delivering. If he has spoken too soon and too loosely and has to step back, the Indonesians will feel, once again, let down. Used to politicians doing everything, they already can't believe that the decision to grant the Papuans protection was taken at official level. They'll keep the pressure on Howard to make good on his words. Doing so, however, will be very hard and controversial.

Expectations of a very different sort dog the decisions Howard and Costello will soon make on the tax changes they put in the budget.

In their separate ways, each is galvanised by the budget's importance for the treasurer. This raises a question that goes to Howard's subconscious. Does the PM in his heart want the 2006 budget to be a huge success for Costello, or leave a few questions about the ambitious deputy who covets his job? In the conscious world of politics, however, Howard can't afford to do anything other than try to ensure it is a budget that makes his Treasurer look good. If the budget doesn't fly, Howard cops a lot of blame, too, and the Government as a whole loses momentum.

Howard and Costello will produce tax cuts for the masses. The cogniscenti of the tax debate — including business, experts and political players such as Nationals president David Russell who spoke out yesterday — are looking for fundamental tax reform, rather than just cuts. So far there is no indication they will get it. This could lead to some negative judgements, especially of Costello. But when ordinary people have some extra dollars, does it matter?

The tax changes in the budget will put Beazley to the test, not least because last year he failed the tax exam so spectacularly when Labor announced it would oppose that budget's cuts.

Labor has a dilemma. If it attacks the Government's tax cuts, the tables can be quickly turned to say, "Where is your plan?" But if it produces a tax plan at mid-term, it starts to lock itself in, which seems unwise. It become harder to cast the proposals as hypothetical, as it did last time. Besides, a full Opposition plan simply deflects attention from whatever Labor wants to say about the Government's tax cuts.

Beazley needs some carefully crafted halfway house for his budget reply. He has to have enough initiatives so he doesn't leave himself open to the criticism that he's just negative. But leaving his pitch on tax until later would seem strategically sensible.

Some time after the budget will come — yet again — another round of Liberal leadership speculation. Howard delights in taunting the media with his standard answer that he will stay as long as the party wants him and it's in the party's interests. Well, there is not much doubt a majority of the party wants him to contest next year's election. Is it in the party's interests? The answer depends on whether the judgement comes from a Howard or Costello supporter.

We can still only speculate about what Howard is thinking on his future. But if there is stirring from the Costello camp and Howard is digging in, expect one thing. The PM's work rate will increase another notch. The joke around Howard is that any Costello push steps up that already exceptional prime ministerial productivity.