Rudd Enters The Danger Zone

Editorial - The Australian

If history is any guide, federal Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd has entered the danger zone from which he will emerge as a genuine prime ministerial contender or be discarded as the latest in a long line of political skyrockets. The headline figures in today's Newspoll results look good for Labor but the detail contains mixed messages both for Mr Rudd and John Howard. The Prime Minister's strategy of bringing the political debate back on to the firm ground of Iraq last week appears to have stopped the slide and rallied voter support for the Coalition. Mr Rudd, having now set the bar for popularity at a record level, must convert that voter recognition into credibility and enduring support.

The record shows this to be the hard part. As Paul Kelly reported in The Weekend Australian, the Government has identified Mr Rudd's political modus operandi, promising all things to all people so as to not offend, and has begun its campaign of demolition. How can Mr Rudd simultaneously be green on climate change but anti-nuclear and pro-coal? How can he oppose Work Choices but be pro-small business? How can he both pull Australian troops out of Iraq and keep them there at the same time to not upset our American allies? And as the Government builds the pressure on Mr Rudd, it will come increasingly from the fringe of his own party, reluctantly being dragged towards the middle ground without consultation. Former Midnight Oil singer turned politician Peter Garrett's support for US bases last week might well be a turning point.

History shows Mr Rudd's honeymoon popularity is the norm, not the exception. Bill Hayden, Andrew Peacock, Alexander Downer, Simon Crean and Mark Latham were all, it seemed at the time, destined to be king. The ending of Mr Latham's honeymoon period is particularly illustrative. After taking over as Opposition leader in December 2003, Mr Latham's popularity hit a record high satisfaction rating of 66 points in March 2004. Over the same period, Newspoll support for Labor rose from 39 per cent in December to 46 per cent in mid-March as support for the the Coalition fell from 45 per cent to 41 per cent. On the crucial question of who would make the better prime minister, Mr Latham virtually equalled Mr Howard at 42 per cent to 43 per cent. However, by June 2004 the Latham rocket had begun to explode. The Coalition had secured a 10-point turnaround in primary votes to a leading 47 per cent. And from his peak satisfaction rating of 66 points in March, Mr Latham's personal rating had slumped to 54 per cent and his standing on preferred PM had fallen 10 points to 32 per cent. The ALP's overall standing dipped seven points. What had happened was a budget loaded with well-targeted giveaways, an advertising blitz recommitting the Coalition to Medicare and a full frontal assault on Mr Latham over his personal life and career in local government. As Mr Howard's former senior adviser, Grahame Morris, told the ABC's Lateline on Friday, Australians will by nature give any new person the benefit of the doubt and a fair go. But they will reserve their judgment until the lemonade and fairy floss, now being fed to Mr Rudd, is replaced with a cactus to chew on and a lemon to suck.

The country-fair diet has boosted Mr Rudd's personal satisfaction rating, which is up another eight points to 68per cent, the highest level recorded by Newspoll for a federal Opposition leader in more than 21 years. In terms of primary support, Labor now has a five-point lead over the Coalition at 46 to 41 per cent. On a two-party-preferred basis Labor remains well ahead on 54 per cent to the Coalition's 46 per cent and Mr Rudd has raced past Mr Howard in terms of who would make the better prime minister, rising eight points to 47 per cent against 37 per cent for Mr Howard.

The results are unambiguously positive for Mr Rudd personally. The biggest danger is that there is a long way to fall if voter sentiment changes. On closer examination, however, the trend is not all bad for the Coalition. While Mr Rudd's personal popularity rose, support for the Coalition was also up, both on primary voting intentions, from 38 to 41 per cent and on a two-party-preferred basis, from 44 to 46 per cent. This was at the end of a week in which Mr Howard was claimed to have stumbled in the Iraq debate by criticising potential US Democrat presidential candidate Barack Obama over the issue of troop withdrawal. Rather than blunder, Newspoll supports the view put by The Australian last week that Mr Howard had turned the debate from climate change, on which Labor enjoys a natural supremacy, back to solid ground for the Coalition. This is borne out in the Newspoll results, which show bringing troops home immediately to be the least popular option. While the war is still unpopular with voters, opinion is divided on the timing of an Australian troop withdrawal. Setting a definite date for withdrawal is the most popular option, with 45 per cent support. Next most favoured is leaving troops in Iraq for as long as necessary, with 30 per cent. On this issue, support for troops remaining rose three points from the last poll and support for setting a withdrawal date fell two points. Only 22 per cent favoured immediate withdrawal. On balance, the Iraq issue appears to have stabilised things for Mr Howard, who continued to focus on the issue yesterday, saying Australia may increase its troop training presence but was unlikely to accept any request from US Vice-President Dick Cheney that Australia's troop numbers be increased. Mr Rudd, meanwhile, is attempting to leverage his personal voter recognition and support by shadowing Mr Howard around the country. After engagements in Adelaide yesterday, Mr Rudd changed his itinerary to follow Mr Howard into Western Australia. In contrast to his immediate predecessor, Kim Beazley, Mr Rudd is an energetic and enthusiastic performer who can be expected to maintain the phoney election race indefinitely.

But as the election year unfolds, recent history can again give some clues on where things are going. Away from the distractions of climate change and Iraq, the real battle ground has yet to present itself. It will undoubtedly be economic. Mr Howard knows the real vote changer is always the hip pocket. The Government still enjoys a solid economic track record and the future direction of interest rates appears static or down. The first real shots of the election year will come with the federal budget in May which can be expected to contain some giveaways but leave plenty of room for the campaign proper. This presents a problem for Labor and its new leader, who has yet to establish his economic credentials. If the Coalition is successful in badging Labor's new leader as Mr Bet Each Way, he will find it difficult to simultaneously establish economic credibility and be financially generous to special-interest voters. That is, after all, Mr Howard's speciality.