1996 Federal Election Pendulum - AustralianPolitics.com

This pendulum shows the swings required following the 1993 election, adjusted for the redistribution that came into effect at the 1996 election. The swing required for the incumbent party to lose is based on new boundaries for the 1996 election as taken from ‘The Mackerras 1996 Federal Election Guide” (AGPS).

ACT | NSW | NT | QLD | SA | TAS | VIC | WA

Australian Capital Territory (2 seats)
Electorate	Current Member	Party	Two-Party %	Swing to lose
Canberra	Ros Kelly (ret)	ALP	59.56	7.4
Fraser	John Langmore	ALP	62.81	12.0

New South Wales (50 seats)
Electorate	Current Member	Party	Two-Party %	Swing to lose
Banks	Daryl Melham	ALP	60.54	10.6
Barton	Gary Punch	ALP	59.39	9.4
Bennelong	John Howard	LP	53.19	3.2
Berowra	Philip Ruddock	LP	62.20	12.3
Blaxland	Paul Keating	ALP	72.10	22.2
Bradfield	David Connolly (ret)	LP	73.04	23.1
Calare	David Simmons	ALP	54.06	4.1
Charlton	Bob Brown	ALP	67.10	17.2
Chifley	Roger Price	ALP	68.06	22.6
Cook	Don Dobie	LP	53.47	3.5
Cowper	Garry Nehl	NP	54.06	4.1
Cunningham	Stephen Martin	ALP	67.91	18.0
Dobell	Michael Lee	ALP	56.82	6.9
Eden-Monaro	Jim Snow	ALP	54.28	4.3
Farrer	Tim Fischer	NP	67.43	17.5
Fowler	Ted Grace	ALP	72.00	22.1
Gilmore	Peter Knott	ALP	50.45	0.5
Grayndler	Jeanette McHugh	ALP	72.81	22.9
Greenway	Russ Gorman	ALP	63.42	13.5
Gwydir	John Anderson	NP	60.27	10.3
Hughes	Robert Tickner	ALP	56.42	6.5
Hume	John Sharp	NP	53.70	3.8
Hunter	Eric Fitzgibbon	ALP	63.92	14.0
Kingsford-Smith	Laurie Brereton	ALP	65.24	15.3
Lindsay	Ross Free	ALP	60.22	10.3
Lowe	Mary Easson	ALP	55.01	5.1
Lyne	Mark Vaile	NP	54.24	4.3
Macarthur	Chris Haviland	ALP	51.28	1.3
Mackellar	Jim Carlton (ret)	LP	61.16	11.2
Macquarie	Maggie Deahm	ALP	50.12	0.2
Mitchell	Alan Cadman	LP	68.67	18.7
Newcastle	Allan Morris	ALP	66.88	16.9
New England	Ian Sinclair	NP	60.20	10.3
North Sydney	Ted Mack	IND	59.43	9.6 (notionally LP)
Page	Harry Woods	ALP	50.13	0.2
Parkes	Michael Cobb	NP	50.53	0.6
Parramatta	Paul Elliott	ALP	53.24	3.3
Paterson	Bob Horne	ALP	53.30	3.4
Prospect	Janice Crosio	ALP	69.04	19.1
Reid	Laurie Ferguson	ALP	68.80	18.9
Richmond	Neville Newell	ALP	51.77	1.8
Riverina	Noel Hicks	NP	62.93	13.0
Robertson	Frank Walker	ALP	55.55	5.6
Shortland	Peter Morris	ALP	67.33	17.4
Sydney	Peter Baldwin	ALP	69.47	19.5
Throsby	Colin Hollis	ALP	74.02	24.1
Warringah	Michael Mackellar (ret)	LP	60.26	10.3
Watson	Leo McLeay	ALP	64.84	14.9
Wentworth	John Hewson (ret)	LP	54.46	5.5
Werriwa	John Kerin	ALP	65.77	15.8

Northern Territory (1 seat)
Electorate	Current Member	Party	Two-Party %	Swing to lose
Northern Territory	Warren Snowdon	ALP	55.31	5.4

Queensland (25 seats)
Electorate	Current Member	Party	Two-Party %	Swing to lose
Bowman	Con Sciacca	ALP	57.42	8.0
Brisbane	Arch Bevis	ALP	55.99	4.8
Capricornia	Marjorie Henzell	ALP	52.73	2.8
Dawson	Ray Braithwaite	NP	53.84	3.9
Dickson	Michael Lavarch	ALP	50.26	2.9
Fadden	David Jull	LP	53.77	5.1
Fairfax	Alex Somlyay	LP	59.80	9.9
Fisher	Peter Slipper	LP	55.36	8.7
Forde	Mary Crawford	ALP	51.76	1.4 (notionally LP)
Griffith	Ben Humphreys	ALP	57.98	6.1
Groom	Bill Taylor	LP	64.12	14.2
Herbert	Eamon Lindsay	ALP	52.37	2.4
Hinkler	Paul Neville	NP	50.22	0.3
Kennedy	Bob Katter	NP	52.88	2.9
Leichhardt	Peter Dodd	ALP	51.32	1.4
Lilley	Wayne Swan	ALP	56.22	6.3
McPherson	John Bradford	LP	59.08	9.1
Maranoa	Bruce Scott	NP	68.13	18.2
Moncrieff	Kathy Sullivan	LP	62.41	12.5
Moreton	Garrie Gibson	ALP	51.74	0.2 (notionally LP)
Oxley	Les Scott	ALP	62.58	12.6
Petrie	Gary Johns	ALP	52.10	2.2
Rankin	David Beddall	ALP	52.67	12.5
Ryan	John Moore	LP	60.61	8.8
Wide Bay	Warren Truss	NP	59.71	8.2

South Australia (12 seats)
Electorate	Current Member	Party	Two-Party %	Swing to lose
Adelaide	Trish Worth	LP	51.31	1.4
Barker	Ian McLachlan	LP	65.97	16.0
Bonython	Neal Blewett (ret)	ALP	64.75	14.8
Boothby	Steele Hall	LP	57.80	7.9
Grey	Barry Wakelin	LP	52.08	2.1
Hindmarsh	Chris Gallus	LP	51.64	1.7
Kingston	Gordon Bilney	ALP	51.45	1.5
Makin	Peter Duncan	ALP	53.70	3.8
Mayo	Alexander Downer	LP	60.60	10.7
Port Adelaide	Rod Sawford	ALP	62.05	12.1
Sturt	Chris Pyne	LP	55.71	5.8
Wakefield	Neil Andrew	LP	66.98	17.0

Tasmania (5 seats)
Electorate	Current Member	Party	Two-Party %	Swing to lose
Bass	Silvia Smith	ALP	50.03	0.1
Braddon	Chris Miles	LP	52.85	2.9
Denison	Duncan Kerr	ALP	64.44	14.5
Franklin	Harry Quick	ALP	57.43	7.5
Lyons	Dick Adams	ALP	53.78	3.8

Victoria (38 seats)
Electorate	Current Member	Party	Two-Party%	Swing to lose
Aston	Peter Nugent	LP	51.92	2.8
Ballarat	Michael Ronaldson	LP	52.20	1.8
Batman	Brian Howe	ALP	73.43	23.5
Bendigo	Bruce Reid	LP	50.07	1.0 (notionally ALP)
Bruce	Julian Beale	LP	55.09	1.6 (notionally ALP)
Burke	Neil O’Keefe	ALP	59.96	7.6
Calwell	Andrew Theophanous	ALP	68.44	18.5
Casey	Bob Halverson	LP	55.97	4.0
Chisholm	Michael Wooldridge	LP	52.88	0.2 (notionally ALP)
Corangamite	Stewart McArthur	LP	56.97	6.1
Corinella	Alan Griffin	ALP	53.74	abolished
Corio	Gavan O’Connor	ALP	57.19	8.4
Deakin	Ken Aldred	LP	51.27	1.0
Dunkley	Bob Chynoweth	ALP	50.61	2.7 (notionally LP)
Flinders	Peter Reith	LP	55.19	5.2
Gellibrand	Ralph Willis	ALP	75.38	25.4
Gippsland	Peter McGauran	NP	66.30	16.4
Goldstein	David Kemp	LP	55.54	7.7
Higgins	Peter Costello	LP	60.13	10.2
Holt	Michael Duffy	ALP	60.10	12.4
Hotham	Simon Crean	ALP	62.99	7.7
Indi	Lou Lieberman	LP	62.88	12.9
Isaacs	Rod Atkinson	LP	52.98	3.9 (notionally ALP)
Jaga Jaga	Peter Staples	ALP	55.46	3.0
Kooyong	Andrew Peacock (ret)	LP	64.07	14.1
Lalor	Barry Jones	ALP	67.35	19.1
La Trobe	Bob Charles	LP	52.36	1.3
McEwen	Peter Cleeland	ALP	50.69	1.4 (notionally LP)
McMillan	Barry Cunningham	ALP	50.40	0.6
Mallee	John Forrest	NP	69.37	19.4
Maribyrnong	Alan Griffiths	ALP	68.72	18.8
Melbourne	Lindsay Tanner	ALP	73.74	23.8
Melbourne Ports	Clyde Holding	ALP	55.85	5.9
Menzies	Kevin Andrews	LP	59.23	9.3
Murray	Bruce Lloyd	NP	70.41	20.5
Scullin	Harry Jenkins	ALP	68.62	21.9
Wannon	David Hawker	LP	59.27	9.3
Wills	Phil Cleary	IND	52.42	20.3 (notionally ALP)

Western Australia (14 seats)
Electorate	Current Member	Party	Two-Party %	Swing to lose
Brand	Wendy Fatin	ALP	53.70	3.8
Canning	George Gear	ALP	50.19	0.2
Cowan	Richard Evans	LP	50.93	1.0
Curtin	Allan Rocher	LP	65.22	15.3
Forrest	Geoff Prosser	LP	61.73	11.8
Fremantle	John Dawkins (ret)	ALP	57.79	7.8
Kalgoorlie	Graeme Campbell	ALP	59.94	10.0
Moore	Paul Filing	LP	58.73	8.8
O’Connor	Wilson Tuckey	LP	74.02	24.1
Pearce	Judi Moylan	LP	58.76	8.8
Perth	Stephen Smith	ALP	56.15	6.2
Stirling	Eoin Cameron	LP	51.47	1.5
Swan	Kim Beazley	ALP	50.22	0.3
Tangney	Daryl Williams	LP	61.86	11.9