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1996 Federal Election Pendulum

This pendulum shows the swings required following the 1993 election, adjusted for the redistribution that came into effect at the 1996 election. The swing required for the incumbent party to lose is based on new boundaries for the 1996 election as taken from ‘The Mackerras 1996 Federal Election Guide” (AGPS).

ACT | NSW | NT | QLD | SA | TAS | VIC | WA

Australian Capital Territory (2 seats)
Electorate Current Member Party Two-Party % Swing to lose
Canberra Ros Kelly (ret) ALP
59.56
7.4
Fraser John Langmore ALP
62.81
12.0

New South Wales (50 seats)
Electorate Current Member Party Two-Party % Swing to lose
Banks Daryl Melham ALP
60.54
10.6
Barton Gary Punch ALP
59.39
9.4
Bennelong John Howard LP
53.19
3.2
Berowra Philip Ruddock LP
62.20
12.3
Blaxland Paul Keating ALP
72.10
22.2
Bradfield David Connolly (ret) LP
73.04
23.1
Calare David Simmons ALP
54.06
4.1
Charlton Bob Brown ALP
67.10
17.2
Chifley Roger Price ALP
68.06
22.6
Cook Don Dobie LP
53.47
3.5
Cowper Garry Nehl NP
54.06
4.1
Cunningham Stephen Martin ALP
67.91
18.0
Dobell Michael Lee ALP
56.82
6.9
Eden-Monaro Jim Snow ALP
54.28
4.3
Farrer Tim Fischer NP
67.43
17.5
Fowler Ted Grace ALP
72.00
22.1
Gilmore Peter Knott ALP
50.45
0.5
Grayndler Jeanette McHugh ALP
72.81
22.9
Greenway Russ Gorman ALP
63.42
13.5
Gwydir John Anderson NP
60.27
10.3
Hughes Robert Tickner ALP
56.42
6.5
Hume John Sharp NP
53.70
3.8
Hunter Eric Fitzgibbon ALP
63.92
14.0
Kingsford-Smith Laurie Brereton ALP
65.24
15.3
Lindsay Ross Free ALP
60.22
10.3
Lowe Mary Easson ALP
55.01
5.1
Lyne Mark Vaile NP
54.24
4.3
Macarthur Chris Haviland ALP
51.28
1.3
Mackellar Jim Carlton (ret) LP
61.16
11.2
Macquarie Maggie Deahm ALP
50.12
0.2
Mitchell Alan Cadman LP
68.67
18.7
Newcastle Allan Morris ALP
66.88
16.9
New England Ian Sinclair NP
60.20
10.3
North Sydney Ted Mack IND
59.43
9.6 (notionally LP)
Page Harry Woods ALP
50.13
0.2
Parkes Michael Cobb NP
50.53
0.6
Parramatta Paul Elliott ALP
53.24
3.3
Paterson Bob Horne ALP
53.30
3.4
Prospect Janice Crosio ALP
69.04
19.1
Reid Laurie Ferguson ALP
68.80
18.9
Richmond Neville Newell ALP
51.77
1.8
Riverina Noel Hicks NP
62.93
13.0
Robertson Frank Walker ALP
55.55
5.6
Shortland Peter Morris ALP
67.33
17.4
Sydney Peter Baldwin ALP
69.47
19.5
Throsby Colin Hollis ALP
74.02
24.1
Warringah Michael Mackellar (ret) LP
60.26
10.3
Watson Leo McLeay ALP
64.84
14.9
Wentworth John Hewson (ret) LP
54.46
5.5
Werriwa John Kerin ALP
65.77
15.8

Northern Territory (1 seat)
Electorate Current Member Party Two-Party % Swing to lose
Northern Territory Warren Snowdon ALP
55.31
5.4

Queensland (25 seats)
Electorate Current Member Party Two-Party % Swing to lose
Bowman Con Sciacca ALP
57.42
8.0
Brisbane Arch Bevis ALP
55.99
4.8
Capricornia Marjorie Henzell ALP
52.73
2.8
Dawson Ray Braithwaite NP
53.84
3.9
Dickson Michael Lavarch ALP
50.26
2.9
Fadden David Jull LP
53.77
5.1
Fairfax Alex Somlyay LP
59.80
9.9
Fisher Peter Slipper LP
55.36
8.7
Forde Mary Crawford ALP
51.76
1.4 (notionally LP)
Griffith Ben Humphreys ALP
57.98
6.1
Groom Bill Taylor LP
64.12
14.2
Herbert Eamon Lindsay ALP
52.37
2.4
Hinkler Paul Neville NP
50.22
0.3
Kennedy Bob Katter NP
52.88
2.9
Leichhardt Peter Dodd ALP
51.32
1.4
Lilley Wayne Swan ALP
56.22
6.3
McPherson John Bradford LP
59.08
9.1
Maranoa Bruce Scott NP
68.13
18.2
Moncrieff Kathy Sullivan LP
62.41
12.5
Moreton Garrie Gibson ALP
51.74
0.2 (notionally LP)
Oxley Les Scott ALP
62.58
12.6
Petrie Gary Johns ALP
52.10
2.2
Rankin David Beddall ALP
52.67
12.5
Ryan John Moore LP
60.61
8.8
Wide Bay Warren Truss NP
59.71
8.2

South Australia (12 seats)
Electorate Current Member Party Two-Party % Swing to lose
Adelaide Trish Worth LP
51.31
1.4
Barker Ian McLachlan LP
65.97
16.0
Bonython Neal Blewett (ret) ALP
64.75
14.8
Boothby Steele Hall LP
57.80
7.9
Grey Barry Wakelin LP
52.08
2.1
Hindmarsh Chris Gallus LP
51.64
1.7
Kingston Gordon Bilney ALP
51.45
1.5
Makin Peter Duncan ALP
53.70
3.8
Mayo Alexander Downer LP
60.60
10.7
Port Adelaide Rod Sawford ALP
62.05
12.1
Sturt Chris Pyne LP
55.71
5.8
Wakefield Neil Andrew LP
66.98
17.0

Tasmania (5 seats)
Electorate Current Member Party Two-Party % Swing to lose
Bass Silvia Smith ALP
50.03
0.1
Braddon Chris Miles LP
52.85
2.9
Denison Duncan Kerr ALP
64.44
14.5
Franklin Harry Quick ALP
57.43
7.5
Lyons Dick Adams ALP
53.78
3.8

Victoria (38 seats)
Electorate Current Member Party Two-Party% Swing to lose
Aston Peter Nugent LP
51.92
2.8
Ballarat Michael Ronaldson LP
52.20
1.8
Batman Brian Howe ALP
73.43
23.5
Bendigo Bruce Reid LP
50.07
1.0 (notionally ALP)
Bruce Julian Beale LP
55.09
1.6 (notionally ALP)
Burke Neil O’Keefe ALP
59.96
7.6
Calwell Andrew Theophanous ALP
68.44
18.5
Casey Bob Halverson LP
55.97
4.0
Chisholm Michael Wooldridge LP
52.88
0.2 (notionally ALP)
Corangamite Stewart McArthur LP
56.97
6.1
Corinella Alan Griffin ALP
53.74
abolished
Corio Gavan O’Connor ALP
57.19
8.4
Deakin Ken Aldred LP
51.27
1.0
Dunkley Bob Chynoweth ALP
50.61
2.7 (notionally LP)
Flinders Peter Reith LP
55.19
5.2
Gellibrand Ralph Willis ALP
75.38
25.4
Gippsland Peter McGauran NP
66.30
16.4
Goldstein David Kemp LP
55.54
7.7
Higgins Peter Costello LP
60.13
10.2
Holt Michael Duffy ALP
60.10
12.4
Hotham Simon Crean ALP
62.99
7.7
Indi Lou Lieberman LP
62.88
12.9
Isaacs Rod Atkinson LP
52.98
3.9 (notionally ALP)
Jaga Jaga Peter Staples ALP
55.46
3.0
Kooyong Andrew Peacock (ret) LP
64.07
14.1
Lalor Barry Jones ALP
67.35
19.1
La Trobe Bob Charles LP
52.36
1.3
McEwen Peter Cleeland ALP
50.69
1.4 (notionally LP)
McMillan Barry Cunningham ALP
50.40
0.6
Mallee John Forrest NP
69.37
19.4
Maribyrnong Alan Griffiths ALP
68.72
18.8
Melbourne Lindsay Tanner ALP
73.74
23.8
Melbourne Ports Clyde Holding ALP
55.85
5.9
Menzies Kevin Andrews LP
59.23
9.3
Murray Bruce Lloyd NP
70.41
20.5
Scullin Harry Jenkins ALP
68.62
21.9
Wannon David Hawker LP
59.27
9.3
Wills Phil Cleary IND
52.42
20.3 (notionally ALP)

Western Australia (14 seats)
Electorate Current Member Party Two-Party % Swing to lose
Brand Wendy Fatin ALP
53.70
3.8
Canning George Gear ALP
50.19
0.2
Cowan Richard Evans LP
50.93
1.0
Curtin Allan Rocher LP
65.22
15.3
Forrest Geoff Prosser LP
61.73
11.8
Fremantle John Dawkins (ret) ALP
57.79
7.8
Kalgoorlie Graeme Campbell ALP
59.94
10.0
Moore Paul Filing LP
58.73
8.8
O’Connor Wilson Tuckey LP
74.02
24.1
Pearce Judi Moylan LP
58.76
8.8
Perth Stephen Smith ALP
56.15
6.2
Stirling Eoin Cameron LP
51.47
1.5
Swan Kim Beazley ALP
50.22
0.3
Tangney Daryl Williams LP
61.86
11.9

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