The Republican Party won control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 1994 for the first time since 1952. The Democratic Party needs a net gain of 19 seats to retake control.
There are 91 House of Representatives Freshmen, elected in the Republican victory in 1994, only 3 of whom are not seeking re-election this year. 74 of the freshmen are Republicans, 17 are Democrats. All the freshmen are listed here, although not all are vulnerable. The predictions were made in October 1996.
| House of Representatives – Races Worth Watching | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Incumbent | Comment | Winner | |
| Matt Salmon (R) | Freshman. Salmon is guaranteed a second term because the Democrats have been unable to find a candidate | Salmon | ||
| John Shadegg (R) | Freshman. A Republican district. The Democrat is a supporter of Lyndon LaRouche. | Shadegg | ||
| J. D. Hayworth (R) | Freshman. Democrat candidate Steve Owens has a chance in this close race. | Hayworth | ||
| Frank Riggs (R) | Freshman. Riggs lost this seat in 1992, but regained it in 1994. The Democrat candidate, Michela Alioto, used to work for Al Gore. One to watch. | Riggs | ||
| Tom Campbell (R) | Freshman. The 15th has voted Democratic before, but Campbell is expeced to win against Dick Lane (R). | Campbell | ||
| Zoe Lofgren (D) | Freshman. A traditional Democratic area that Lofgren should hold easily. The GOP candidate is Chuck Wojslaw. | Lofgren | ||
| George Radanovich (R) | Freshman. Expected to defeat Democrat Paul Barile. Radanovich has been a staunch supporter of the Contract With America. | Radanovich | ||
| Andrea Seastrand (R) | Freshman. This is one of the toughest and closes races this year. Seastrand faces Walter Capps (D) in a rematch of 1994. | Capps | ||
| Juanita McDonald (D) | Freshman. McDonald has only been a member since April, replacing Walter Tucker III, who resigned after being convicted of taking bribes. Republican opponent, Michael Voetee, is given no chance in this Democratic seat. | McDonald | ||
| Sonny Bono (R) | Freshman. Bono has been a strong supporter of the Contract With America. Democrat Anita Rufus faces a difficult battle to win here. | Bono | ||
| Brian Bilbray (R) | Freshman. One to watch, a seat that swings with the tide. Bilbray faces Peter Navarro (D). | Bilbray | ||
| Joe Scarborough (R) | Freshman. A traditionally conservative district only ever held by conservative Democrats. Scarborough should hang on. | Scarborough | ||
| David Weldon (R) | Freshman. One to watch. Democrat John Byron is attempting to retake this seat, won narrowly by Weldon in 1994. | Weldon | ||
| Mark Foley (R) | Freshman. Foley is safe in this traditional Republican seat. | Foley | ||
| Bob Barr (R) | Freshman. Barr won 52-48 in 1994. Democrat Louie Watts, a state representative, will benefit from redistricting. One to watch. | Barr | ||
| Saxby Chambliss (R) | Freshman. Chambliss is expected to win this year against Jim Wiggins (D) and be able to consolidate himself in a fairly safe district. | Chambliss | ||
| Charlie Norwood (R) | Freshman. Norwood won this conservative Democratic seat in 1994 as part of the southern shift to the Republicans and is expected to hang on. | Norwood | ||
| Helen Chenoweth (R) | Freshman. The Democratic challenger, Daniel Williams, is hoping to regain this seat against an anti-gay, pro-mining conservative. The 1st is a more moderate district than the 2nd. | Chenoweth | ||
| Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) | Freshman. Jackson replaced Mel Reynolds, who resigned in 1994 after being convicted of sex charges. This is a super safe Democratic seat. | Jackson | ||
| Michael Flanagan (R) | Freshman. This was Dan Rostenkowski’s seat until Flanagan beat him in 1994. Democrat Rod Blagojevich is favoured to win. | Blagojevich | ||
| Jerry Weller (R) | Freshman. A classic swing seat in both presidential and congressional elections. Weller won comfortably by 22 points in 1994 and should help him hold off Democrat Clem Balanoff. | Weller | ||
| Ray LaHood (R) | Freshman. This district produced Republicans Everett Dirksen and Bob Michel and will stay with LaHood, one of the few Republicans who did not sign the Contract With America. The Democrat candidate is Mike Curran. | LaHood | ||
| David McIntosh (R) | Freshman. McIntosh won this traditional Democratic seat in 1994 and Marc Carmichael has a hard job to retake it. McIntosh was rewarded with a Committee chair in the 104th. | McIntosh | ||
| Mark Souder (R) | Freshman. This is Dan Quayle’s old seat, although it was held for 3 terms by the Democrats. Souder upset Gingrich by opposing the Balanced Budget Amendment. The Democrats are running Gerald Houseman. | Souder | ||
| John Hostettler (R) | Freshman. One to watch. Narrowly held by the Democrats for 12 years, this seat offers a good guide to the national mood and may be picked up by Democrat Jonathon Wenzapfel. | Hostettler | ||
| Greg Ganske (R) | Freshman. Democrat Connie McBurney would have to be rated a good chance to retrieve this seat which elected a Democrat for 32 years up until 1994. | Ganske | ||
| Tom Latham (R) | Freshman. Latham should be safe against MacDonald Smith (D) in this traditional Republican district. | Latham | ||
| Sam Brownback (R) | Freshman. Brownback is not contesting this seat, but is running for Bob Dole’s old Senate seat. Prior to 1994, a Democrat held the seat for 12 years, but Dole’s presidential candidacy may help the new candidate, Jim Ryun. | Ryun (R) | ||
| Todd Tiahrt (R) | Freshman. This was a surprise win in 1994. The defeated Democrat, Dan Glickman, is now Secretary of Agriculture. Like the 2nd district, this may be hard for the Democrats to win this time around. | Tiahrt | ||
| Edward Whitfield (R) | Freshman. A complete upset win in 1994, expect to see this seat go to Democrat Dennis Null this year. | Whitfield | ||
| Mike Ward (D) | Freshman. Ward had a very narrow win in 1994, but should hold on in this district that leans Democrat. The Republican candidate is Anne Northup. | Northup | ||
| James Longley (R) | Freshman. Recent polls show Democrat Tom Allen with a sizable lead over Longley, who won this seat narrowly in 1994. | Allen | ||
| John Baldacci (D) | Freshman. Whereas the 1st elected a GOP freshman in 1994, the 2nd chose a Democat. He is opposed by Paul Young (R) but should hang on. | Baldacci | ||
| Robert Ehrlich (R) | Freshman. Ehrlich won by 26 points in 1994 in a Republican-leaning district in a Democratic state. The Democrat’s candidate is Connie Galiazzo DeJuliis. One to watch. | Ehrlich | ||
| Elijah Cummings (D) | Freshman. Cummings replaced Kwesi Mfume (president of NAACP) in 1996. Expect his to trounce Republican Kenneth Kondner with a vote in the 70-80% region. | Cummings | ||
| Dick Chrysler (R) | Freshman. A seat being targeted by the Democrats in this marginal district. The Democrat candidate is state Senator Debbie Stabenow. | Stabenow | ||
| Lynn Rivers (D) | Freshman. One of the few Democratic freshman in 1994. Expect her to be comfortably re-elected. | Rivers | ||
| Gil Gutknecht (R) | Freshman. A classic swing seat to watch for on November 5. Gutknecht beat long-term Democrat, Tim Penny, in 1994. | Gutknecht | ||
| Bill Luther (D) | Freshman. Luther won this seat, once held by Republican Sen. Rod Grams, and should be favoured to retain it in a rematch with his 1994 Republican opponent, Tad Jude. | Luther | ||
| Roger Wicker (R) | Freshman. Wicker trounced the Democrats 63-37 in 1994 in this Republican district. No wonder Wicker voted against Term Limits! | Wicker | ||
| Karen McCarthy (D) | Freshman. McCarthy is safe in this traditional Democratic district. Even in 1994, she won by 14 points. | McCarthy | ||
| Jon Christensen (R) | Freshman. One to watch. Christensen won by only 1% in 1994 in a very dirty campaign. However, the district leans Republican and Christensen stands a good chance against Democrat James Davis. | Christensen | ||
| John Ensign (R) | Freshman. A must-win seat for the Democrats and their candidate, state Senator Bob Coffin. Ensign beat a long-term Democrat in 1994. | Ensign | ||
| Charles Bass (R) | Freshman. One to watch. Bass faces Deborah “Arnie” Arnesen (D) in what is a close race. | Bass | ||
| Frank LoBiondo (R) | Freshman. LoBiondo won this seat in 1994, defeating a 20-year Democratic incumbent. He is favoured to beat Ruth Kane (D), but this is still a seat to watch. | LoBiondo | ||
| Bill Martini (R) | Freshman. A swing seat, won by the Democrats in 1992, but lost in 1994. Martini is a liberal Republican who has voted against some measures in the Contract With America. Democrats candidate is William Pascrell Jr. | Pascrell | ||
| Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) | Freshman. Democrat Chris Evangel has little hope in this the wealthiest district in New Jersey. | Frelinghuysen | ||
| Michael Forbes (R) | Freshman. Having beaten a veteran Democrat in 1994, Forbes is being targeted this time around. Bush won the district in 1992. One to watch. | Forbes | ||
| Dan Frisa (R) | Freshman. The Democrat candidate, Carolyn McCarthy, whose husband was murdered in 1993, faces a Republican who gained this seat by knocking off a freshman Republican in the 1994 primary. It’s all very New York. | McCarthy | ||
| Sue Kelly (R) | Freshman. This has been a Republican district since 1968, but Democrat Richard Klein could win if Kelly’s GOP primary rival, Joseph DioGuardi, runs as an independent. | Kelly | ||
| David Funderburk (R) | Freshman. This district leans Republican, but it will be a tight race, possibly influenced by the Helms-Gannt Senate contest. The Democrat candidate is Bob Etheridge. | Etheridge | ||
| Walter Jones Jr. (R) | Freshman. Jones is a former Democrat who appears hard to beat. The Democrats have nominated George Parrott. | Jones | ||
| Fred Heineman (R) | Freshman. One to watch. This race is a rematch of 1994, with Democrat David Price attempting to retake his old seat. Heineman only won by 1000 votes in 1994 and has not been well recently. | Price | ||
| Richard Burr (R) | Freshman. The 5th had Democratic representation for 20 years until Burr won it in 1994. He faces Democrat Neil Cashion Jr. in what is a tight contest. One to watch. | Burr | ||
| Sue Myrick (R) | Freshman. This is a safe Republican district. Myrick should easily beat Democrat Mike Daisley. | Myrick | ||
| Steve Chabot (R) | Freshman. Despite being outspent in 1994, Chabot won this seat and faces Democrat Mark Longabaugh on November 5. | Chabot | ||
| Frank Cremeans (R) | Freshman. Cremeans is in a rematch with Democrat Ted Strickland. He won by only 2% in a seat that has been unstable for recent incumbents. | Strickland | ||
| Bob Ney (R) | Freshman. Democrat Rob Burch is hoping to regain this traditionally Democratic district which fell to the GOP in 1994. | Ney | ||
| Steven LaTourette (R) | Freshman. One to watch. This seat has swung from Democrats to Republicans. LaTourette took it from freshman Eric Fingerhut and Tom Coyne Jr. is attempting to retrieve it this time. | LaTourette | ||
| Steve Largent (R) | Freshman. Another footballer who looks unbeatable in this Republican district. | Largent | ||
| Tom Coburn (R) | Freshman. One to watch. The Democrat candidate, state House Speaker Glen Johnson, should reclaim this Democratic district. In 1994 Coburn beat Virgil Cooper, who had defeated Rep. Mike Synar (dec.) in the Democratic primary. | Coburn | ||
| J.C. Watts Jr. (R) | Freshman. One of two African American Republicans in Congress, Watts should be re-elected, although this district has traditionally been Democratic. | Watts | ||
| Wes Cooley (R) | Freshman. Cooley is not running, as a result of scandals over the past 2 years. The GOP nominee is former Rep. Bob Smith, running against Democrat Mike Dugan. With Cooley out of the way, the GOP no longer fears a strong independent candidacy. | Smith | ||
| Earl Blumenauer (D) | Freshman. Elected only 5 months ago, Blumenauer should easily beat Republican Scott Bruun. | Blumenauer | ||
| Jim Bunn (R) | Freshman. Bunn may have saved himself by distancing himself from the Contract With America, which he did not sign in 1994. The 5th tends to vote Democratic, but candidate Darlene Hooley has a tough job. | Hooley | ||
| Chaka Fattah (D) | Freshman. Republican candidate Larry G. Murphy is a token opponent in this solid Democratic district that voted 79% for Bill Clinton in 1992. | Fattah | ||
| Jon Fox (R) | Freshman. Fox defeated one-term member Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky in 1992. They waved goodbye to her on the floor of the House and the voters did the same. Traditionally a Republican district. Democrat Joseph Hoeffel has a difficult task, but this may be a race worth watching. | Fox, by 10 votes! Recount underway. | ||
| Mike Doyle (D) | Freshman. A district that leans Democratic, although it did elect Republican Rick Santorum for two terms. David Fawcett is the Republican candidate. | Doyle | ||
| Frank Mascara (D) | Freshman. Mascara won this open seat in 1994 and faces a rematch on November 5 with Republican Mike McCormick. Traditionally Democratic district. | Mascara | ||
| Phil English (R) | Freshman. One to watch. English won this seat (formerly held by Governor Tom Ridge) narrowly in 1994. The 21st tends to vote Democratic in the presidential race. The Republican candidate is Ronald Dinicola. | English | ||
| Patrick Kennedy (D) | Freshman. Once held by the Republicans, this seat should stay with this member of that famous family. | Kennedy | ||
| Marshall Sanford Jr. (R) | Freshman. Sanford will definitely sit in the 105th Congress, since he had no opponent in the GOP primary and now has no opponent in the general election. A Republican district even when others do run. | Sanford | ||
| Lindsey Graham (R) | Freshman. Graham won this traditionally Democratic seat in an open contest in 1994. This might be one to watch to see the extent of Clinton’s coat-tails on November 5. | Graham | ||
| Zach Wamp (R) | Freshman. In a district that leans Republican in presidential elections, Wamp won this seat after the 20-year Democratic incumbent retired in 1994. Could be worth watching. | Wamp | ||
| Van Hilleary (R) | Freshman. Hilleary could be one of the freshman class to go on November 5. It used to be a Democratic seat. | Hilleary | ||
| Ed Bryant (R) | Freshman. Once held by Governor Don Sundquist, this is a traditionally Republican seat that Bryant should win easily. | Bryant | ||
| Steve Stockman (R) | Freshman. This is one of the great tussles of this election. In 1994 Stockman defeated Democrat Jack Brooks who had held the seat for 42 years. The union movement and the Democratic Party are putting a lot of effort into this one. | December run-off | ||
| Lloyd Doggett (D) | Freshman. This district was once held by former President Lyndon Johnson and has been Democratic since 1937. Doggett’s opponent is Republican Teresa Doggett, no relation. Lloyd Doggett is a liberal in a not too liberal state. | Doggett | ||
| Mac Thornberry (R) | Freshman. Democrat Samual Silverman probably has little chance in this Republican district, even though it was formerly held by a Democrat. | Thornberry | ||
| Sheila Jackson-Lee (D) | Freshman. The incumbent Democrat should have no trouble holding on to this seat, even though redistricting has reduced the black majority to a 45% plurality. | Jackson-Lee | ||
| Ken Bentsen (D) | Freshman. Should be safe for Bentsen, although redistricting may force him into a December runoff when he could expect the GOP to come after him. | December run-off | ||
| Enid Greene (R) | Freshman. Like Wes Cooley, Greene’s scandal-ridden two years have resulted in her premature retirement. Former independent, Merrill Cook is running as the Republican candidate, whilst Ross Anderson is contesting for the Democrats. | Cook | ||
| Tom Davis III (R) | Freshman. Worth watching. Formerly Democratic, but Republican in recent presidential elections. The Democratic candidate is Tom Horton. | Davis | ||
| Rick White (R) | Freshman. Like most of the districts in Washington, this is a battleground seat. White narrowly won in 1994, but will have a difficult job retaining it. | White | ||
| Jack Metcalf (R) | Freshman. Like the 1st, this district is the subject of much work by the Democrats and their candidate Quigley. Metcalf won it as an open seat in 1994. Definitely one to watch. | Quigley initially ahead, Metcalf gaining | ||
| Linda Smith (R) | Freshman. Smith did poorly in an open primary this year and can be expected to lose this seat if there is any kind of big Clinton win. The Democratic candidate is Brian Baird. | Initially Baird, but Smith now ahead | ||
| Richard Hastings (R) | Freshman. Another win to the GOP in this Democratic state in 1994, although Hastings is regarded as being in the best position of any of the incumbent Republicans. One to watch. | Hastings | ||
| George Nethercutt (R) | Freshman. Nethercutt defeated the former Speaker of the House, Tom Foley, in 1994, the first time this had happened since the Civil War. Some think he will hang on, but don’t bet on it. | Nethercutt | ||
| Randy Tate (R) | Freshman. Tate polled even less than Linda Smith in the open primary in September, garnering 47% to Democrat Adam Smith’s 50%. Unlikely to hold on. | Smith | ||
