The predictions shown in the table below were made during October 1996.
The map shows the actual 1996 result.
| 1996 Electoral College – State by State Total Votes=538 – To Win=270 1992 Result: Clinton 370 (32 States + D.C.), Bush 168 (18 States) 1996 Result: Clinton 379 (31 States + D.C.), Dole 159 (19 States) |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Votes | Won in 1992 | Prognosis for 1996 | Result |
| Alabama | 9 | Bush | Bush won by over 7 points last time and latest polling indicates that Dole is ahead. However, Clinton has been active here and is expected to visit in the last week of the campaign. | Dole |
| Alaska | 3 | Bush | Bush defeated Clinton by over 9 points last time in this state that has little history of voting Democrat. Another of that small band of states Dole can count on. | Dole |
| Arizona | 8 | Bush | Arizona last supported a Democrat for President in 1948 when Truman beat Dewey. There are suggestions around that they may be about to do it again. Bush only beat Clinton by 2 points in 1992 and late October polling shows a toss-up race. | Clinton |
| Arkansas | 6 | Clinton | If Clinton can’t win here……. The President won his home state by 17 points in 1992 and counts it as another strong win in 1996. The interesting race here is for the vacant Democratic Senate seat where the Republicans have a good chance. | Clinton |
| California | 54 | Clinton | Dole is way behind in California and his campaign team was undecided in early October about whether to pull out and devote advertising money to more winnable states. They appear to have decided to stay and fight. Clinton has visited the state 27 times during his presidency and has carefully cultivated it. | Clinton |
| Colorado | 8 | Clinton | Good Democratic territory with a popular Democratic Governor. Clinton won by 4 points in 1992, although late October polling shows a close race. | Dole |
| Connecticut | 8 | Clinton | Clinton won by over 7 points in 1992 and is well-favoured to take this state again in 1996. The only point of real interest about the states on the eastern seaboard is whether Clinton fails to win them all! | Clinton |
| Delaware | 3 | Clinton | Clinton won by 8.2 points last time and is comfortably ahead this time round. | Clinton |
| Florida | 25 | Bush | Clinton has spent a lot of time in Florida and the Democrats have hopes of picking up this traditionally Republican state. Clinton was only 2% off the pace last time. Latest polls show it is a toss-up. Clinton is running ads attacking Dole over Medicare and Jack Kemp this week attacked Clinton’s record on Cuba, promising that Dole would work to end communism in the island state. | Clinton |
| Georgia | 13 | Clinton | Worth watching. Newt Gingrich hails from Georgia, but Clinton won narrowly here in 1992. Polling in late October indicated a toss-up. | Dole |
| Hawaii | 4 | Clinton | The island state is a Democratic stronghold that Clinton won by 11 points in 1992 and should win again easily. | Clinton |
| Idaho | 4 | Bush | Another small western state that Clinton lost by 13 points in 1992. Put it in Dole’s list of strongest states. | Dole |
| Illinois | 22 | Clinton | One of the “make or break” states that both candidates have to win. Clinton won here in 1992 by over 14 points. Latest polls show he is well ahead. | Clinton |
| Indiana | 12 | Bush | Home to former Vice-President Dan Quayle, this state went with Bush last time and was surrounded by Democratic states. One to watch this time, although Clinton has to make up 6 points on last time. Late October polling shows a toss-up. | Dole |
| Iowa | 7 | Clinton | Clinton won by 6 points in 1992 and polling shows this to be one of his strongest states this year. | Clinton |
| Kansas | 6 | Bush | If Dole can’t win here……. Bush won Kansas by 5 points in 1992, whilst Perot polled 27%, one of his highest figures in any state. Nevertheless, expect a strong win for Dole here. | Dole |
| Kentucky | 8 | Clinton | Clinton won by 3 points in 1992 and latest polling suggests another close race. The president’s stand against tobacco may harm him here. | Clinton |
| Louisiana | 9 | Clinton | Clinton won by over 4 points in 1992 and late October polling puts him ahead of Dole. | Clinton |
| Maine | 4 | Clinton | Ross Perot polled 30.4% here in 1992, his strongest showing anywhere in the nation. Nevertheless, Clinton outpolled Bush by 8 points and can expect to win again comfortably in 1996. | Clinton |
| Maryland | 10 | Clinton | Clinton romped home here in 1992, winning by over 14%. Hard to see this changing in 1996. Recently deceased former Vice-President Spiro Agnew hailed from Maryland. Latest polling puts Clinton way ahead. | Clinton |
| Massachusetts | 12 | Clinton | They rarely vote Republican up here, at least not for President. Home of the Kennedy clan, recent polls suggest Clinton is way ahead. The Senate race between Republican Governor, William Weld and incumbent Senator John Kerry is the race to watch here. Late October polling suggests Clinton is over 30 points ahead. | Clinton |
| Michigan | 18 | Clinton | Like Ohio, this is one of the must-win States for both candidates. Clinton won by 7 points in 1992. Latest polls show Clinton is ahead. | Clinton |
| Minnesota | 10 | Clinton | Clinton won by over 11 points in 1992. Dukakis won her in 1988 and even Ronald Reagan could barely scrape 50% in 1984. Should stay with the Democrats. | Clinton |
| Mississippi | 7 | Bush | A strongly pro-Republican state, won by Bush by 9 points, this is another bright spot for Dole and is one of his strongest states. | Dole |
| Missouri | 11 | Clinton | An easy win to Clinton in 1992, by 11 points. No reason to think it will be any different this time. Polling shows Clinton ahead. | Clinton |
| Montana | 3 | Clinton | Clinton pipped Bush by 2.5 points last time and is in a close race again this year. Currently a toss-up. | Dole |
| Nebraska | 5 | Bush | Clinton lost this state by 17 points in 1992 and it is once again counted as a very strong state for Dole in 1996. | Dole |
| Nevada | 4 | Clinton | Clinton beat Bush by a narrow 2.7 points in 1992 and this is a small state that is currently a toss-up as the campaign draws to a close. | Clinton |
| New Hampshire | 4 | Clinton | Traditionally Republican territory that Clinton won last time, but only by 1.3 points. Remember, they voted against Dole and for Buchanan in the Republican primary! Dole joked in late October that he was sick of coming second in this state. Latest polling suggests Clinton is ahead. | Clinton |
| New Jersey | 15 | Clinton | The popular tax-cutting Republican Governor, Christine Todd Whitman, probably won’t be enough to swing this state for the GOP. Clinton won by 2.4% in 1992. Polling puts Clinton ahead. | Clinton |
| New Mexico | 5 | Clinton | Clinton won by 8 points last time and is comfortably ahead this time round. | Clinton |
| New York | 33 | Clinton | Solidly Democrat territory that Clinton won by 16 points in 1992 and should win again easily. | Clinton |
| North Carolina | 14 | Bush | Traditionally Republican territory and home to Senator Jesse Helms, this will probably go with Dole, although Clinton was only 0.7% behind in 1992. If the swing is on….? Late October polling showed Dole still ahead. | Dole |
| North Dakota | 3 | Bush | Clinton lost by 12 points in 1992 and Dole is ahead this time. | Dole |
| Ohio | 21 | Clinton | Another crucial Mid-West state that both sides must win. No Republican has ever been elected President without winning here. Clinton won here in 1992 by 2%. Latest polls show Clinton is ahead. | Clinton |
| Oklahoma | 8 | Bush | Bush won comfortably here in 1992, with a margin of over 8 points. Polls show Dole is ahead. | Dole |
| Oregon | 7 | Clinton | Clinton beat Bush by 10 points in 1992 and is ahead again in 1996. | Clinton |
| Pennsylvania | 23 | Clinton | An industrial heartland of the Democrats, won by 9 points in 1992, this should be retained by Clinton. Latest polls show Clinton is ahead. | Clinton |
| Rhode Island | 4 | Clinton | Clinton beat Bush by 18 points in 1992 and is well ahead this time round. | Clinton |
| South Carolina | 8 | Bush | Bush won this state by 8 points in 1992 and it is one of only 7 states polling strongly for Dole in late October. Expect it to stay Republican. | Dole |
| South Dakota | 3 | Bush | Clinton lost by 3.6 points last time and the race in late October was seen as a toss-up. | Dole |
| Tennessee | 11 | Clinton | Vice-President Al Gore is a former senator from Tennessee. This should be enough to give the 11 votes to Clinton-Gore. As President of the Senate, Gore has the job in early January of opening the Electoral College votes and declaring the official winners of the election. Late October polling suggests this state is still uncertain. | Clinton |
| Texas | 32 | Bush | Clinton would dearly love to win Texas. Home to George Bush, it was lost in 1992. Perot got 22% here last time. Latest reports suggest Dole leading. | Dole |
| Utah | 5 | Bush | Clinton lost by over 18 points in 1992 and this is another small state that Dole can count amongst his strongest in 1996. | Dole |
| Vermont | 3 | Clinton | A strongly Democratic state that Clinton won by 16 points last time. Expect a similar performance on November 5. | Clinton |
| Virginia | 13 | Bush | Solid Republican territory that has produced some big votes for Republicans in recent years. Bush won here by 5 points in 1992. Unlikely to go with Clinton, although late October polling showed an even contest. | Dole |
| Washington | 11 | Clinton | Traditional Democratic territory, although the Democratic Governor has been in the wars lately and the Democrats took a pounding here in 1994 when former Speaker, Tom Foley, lost his seat. Hard to see the Republicans winning though. Clinton won by 11 points in 1992 and was strongly ahead in late October polling. | Clinton |
| Washington D.C. | 3 | Clinton | D.C. is over 80% black and is solidly Democratic. Even Democratic Mayor Marion Barry was re-elected after spending 6 months in jail for using cocaine. Bush only polled 9% to Clinton’s 85%, so don’t expect to see Dole win here! | Clinton |
| West Virginia | 5 | Clinton | A strongly Democratic state, Clinton won here by 13 points in 1992. Expect another strong showing this year. | Clinton |
| Wisconsin | 11 | Clinton | Difficult to see the land of picket fences turning to Bob Dole, although Clinton only led by just over 4 points in 1992 and the Republican Governor, Tommy Thompson, is popular and influential. He said recently that the Dole campaign was second only to George Bush’s in terms of ineptness. Another one of the key states around the Great Lakes, late October polling shows Clinton well ahead. | Clinton |
| Wyoming | 3 | Bush | Bush won by 5.6 points last time and this state is counted as one where Dole is ahead. | Dole |
