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1996 Presidential Prognosis And Results

The predictions shown in the table below were made during October 1996.

The map shows the actual 1996 result.


1996 Electoral College – State by State
Total Votes=538 – To Win=270
1992 Result: Clinton 370 (32 States + D.C.), Bush 168 (18 States)
1996 Result: Clinton 379 (31 States + D.C.), Dole 159 (19 States)
State Votes Won in 1992 Prognosis for 1996 Result
Alabama 9 Bush Bush won by over 7 points last time and latest polling indicates that Dole is ahead. However, Clinton has been active here and is expected to visit in the last week of the campaign. Dole
Alaska 3 Bush Bush defeated Clinton by over 9 points last time in this state that has little history of voting Democrat. Another of that small band of states Dole can count on. Dole
Arizona 8 Bush Arizona last supported a Democrat for President in 1948 when Truman beat Dewey. There are suggestions around that they may be about to do it again. Bush only beat Clinton by 2 points in 1992 and late October polling shows a toss-up race. Clinton
Arkansas 6 Clinton If Clinton can’t win here……. The President won his home state by 17 points in 1992 and counts it as another strong win in 1996. The interesting race here is for the vacant Democratic Senate seat where the Republicans have a good chance. Clinton
California 54 Clinton Dole is way behind in California and his campaign team was undecided in early October about whether to pull out and devote advertising money to more winnable states. They appear to have decided to stay and fight. Clinton has visited the state 27 times during his presidency and has carefully cultivated it. Clinton
Colorado 8 Clinton Good Democratic territory with a popular Democratic Governor. Clinton won by 4 points in 1992, although late October polling shows a close race. Dole
Connecticut 8 Clinton Clinton won by over 7 points in 1992 and is well-favoured to take this state again in 1996. The only point of real interest about the states on the eastern seaboard is whether Clinton fails to win them all! Clinton
Delaware 3 Clinton Clinton won by 8.2 points last time and is comfortably ahead this time round. Clinton
Florida 25 Bush Clinton has spent a lot of time in Florida and the Democrats have hopes of picking up this traditionally Republican state. Clinton was only 2% off the pace last time. Latest polls show it is a toss-up. Clinton is running ads attacking Dole over Medicare and Jack Kemp this week attacked Clinton’s record on Cuba, promising that Dole would work to end communism in the island state. Clinton
Georgia 13 Clinton Worth watching. Newt Gingrich hails from Georgia, but Clinton won narrowly here in 1992. Polling in late October indicated a toss-up. Dole
Hawaii 4 Clinton The island state is a Democratic stronghold that Clinton won by 11 points in 1992 and should win again easily. Clinton
Idaho 4 Bush Another small western state that Clinton lost by 13 points in 1992. Put it in Dole’s list of strongest states. Dole
Illinois 22 Clinton One of the “make or break” states that both candidates have to win. Clinton won here in 1992 by over 14 points. Latest polls show he is well ahead. Clinton
Indiana 12 Bush Home to former Vice-President Dan Quayle, this state went with Bush last time and was surrounded by Democratic states. One to watch this time, although Clinton has to make up 6 points on last time. Late October polling shows a toss-up. Dole
Iowa 7 Clinton Clinton won by 6 points in 1992 and polling shows this to be one of his strongest states this year. Clinton
Kansas 6 Bush If Dole can’t win here……. Bush won Kansas by 5 points in 1992, whilst Perot polled 27%, one of his highest figures in any state. Nevertheless, expect a strong win for Dole here. Dole
Kentucky 8 Clinton Clinton won by 3 points in 1992 and latest polling suggests another close race. The president’s stand against tobacco may harm him here. Clinton
Louisiana 9 Clinton Clinton won by over 4 points in 1992 and late October polling puts him ahead of Dole. Clinton
Maine 4 Clinton Ross Perot polled 30.4% here in 1992, his strongest showing anywhere in the nation. Nevertheless, Clinton outpolled Bush by 8 points and can expect to win again comfortably in 1996. Clinton
Maryland 10 Clinton Clinton romped home here in 1992, winning by over 14%. Hard to see this changing in 1996. Recently deceased former Vice-President Spiro Agnew hailed from Maryland. Latest polling puts Clinton way ahead. Clinton
Massachusetts 12 Clinton They rarely vote Republican up here, at least not for President. Home of the Kennedy clan, recent polls suggest Clinton is way ahead. The Senate race between Republican Governor, William Weld and incumbent Senator John Kerry is the race to watch here. Late October polling suggests Clinton is over 30 points ahead. Clinton
Michigan 18 Clinton Like Ohio, this is one of the must-win States for both candidates. Clinton won by 7 points in 1992. Latest polls show Clinton is ahead. Clinton
Minnesota 10 Clinton Clinton won by over 11 points in 1992. Dukakis won her in 1988 and even Ronald Reagan could barely scrape 50% in 1984. Should stay with the Democrats. Clinton
Mississippi 7 Bush A strongly pro-Republican state, won by Bush by 9 points, this is another bright spot for Dole and is one of his strongest states. Dole
Missouri 11 Clinton An easy win to Clinton in 1992, by 11 points. No reason to think it will be any different this time. Polling shows Clinton ahead. Clinton
Montana 3 Clinton Clinton pipped Bush by 2.5 points last time and is in a close race again this year. Currently a toss-up. Dole
Nebraska 5 Bush Clinton lost this state by 17 points in 1992 and it is once again counted as a very strong state for Dole in 1996. Dole
Nevada 4 Clinton Clinton beat Bush by a narrow 2.7 points in 1992 and this is a small state that is currently a toss-up as the campaign draws to a close. Clinton
New Hampshire 4 Clinton Traditionally Republican territory that Clinton won last time, but only by 1.3 points. Remember, they voted against Dole and for Buchanan in the Republican primary! Dole joked in late October that he was sick of coming second in this state. Latest polling suggests Clinton is ahead. Clinton
New Jersey 15 Clinton The popular tax-cutting Republican Governor, Christine Todd Whitman, probably won’t be enough to swing this state for the GOP. Clinton won by 2.4% in 1992. Polling puts Clinton ahead. Clinton
New Mexico 5 Clinton Clinton won by 8 points last time and is comfortably ahead this time round. Clinton
New York 33 Clinton Solidly Democrat territory that Clinton won by 16 points in 1992 and should win again easily. Clinton
North Carolina 14 Bush Traditionally Republican territory and home to Senator Jesse Helms, this will probably go with Dole, although Clinton was only 0.7% behind in 1992. If the swing is on….? Late October polling showed Dole still ahead. Dole
North Dakota 3 Bush Clinton lost by 12 points in 1992 and Dole is ahead this time. Dole
Ohio 21 Clinton Another crucial Mid-West state that both sides must win. No Republican has ever been elected President without winning here. Clinton won here in 1992 by 2%. Latest polls show Clinton is ahead. Clinton
Oklahoma 8 Bush Bush won comfortably here in 1992, with a margin of over 8 points. Polls show Dole is ahead. Dole
Oregon 7 Clinton Clinton beat Bush by 10 points in 1992 and is ahead again in 1996. Clinton
Pennsylvania 23 Clinton An industrial heartland of the Democrats, won by 9 points in 1992, this should be retained by Clinton. Latest polls show Clinton is ahead. Clinton
Rhode Island 4 Clinton Clinton beat Bush by 18 points in 1992 and is well ahead this time round. Clinton
South Carolina 8 Bush Bush won this state by 8 points in 1992 and it is one of only 7 states polling strongly for Dole in late October. Expect it to stay Republican. Dole
South Dakota 3 Bush Clinton lost by 3.6 points last time and the race in late October was seen as a toss-up. Dole
Tennessee 11 Clinton Vice-President Al Gore is a former senator from Tennessee. This should be enough to give the 11 votes to Clinton-Gore. As President of the Senate, Gore has the job in early January of opening the Electoral College votes and declaring the official winners of the election. Late October polling suggests this state is still uncertain. Clinton
Texas 32 Bush Clinton would dearly love to win Texas. Home to George Bush, it was lost in 1992. Perot got 22% here last time. Latest reports suggest Dole leading. Dole
Utah 5 Bush Clinton lost by over 18 points in 1992 and this is another small state that Dole can count amongst his strongest in 1996. Dole
Vermont 3 Clinton A strongly Democratic state that Clinton won by 16 points last time. Expect a similar performance on November 5. Clinton
Virginia 13 Bush Solid Republican territory that has produced some big votes for Republicans in recent years. Bush won here by 5 points in 1992. Unlikely to go with Clinton, although late October polling showed an even contest. Dole
Washington 11 Clinton Traditional Democratic territory, although the Democratic Governor has been in the wars lately and the Democrats took a pounding here in 1994 when former Speaker, Tom Foley, lost his seat. Hard to see the Republicans winning though. Clinton won by 11 points in 1992 and was strongly ahead in late October polling. Clinton
Washington D.C. 3 Clinton D.C. is over 80% black and is solidly Democratic. Even Democratic Mayor Marion Barry was re-elected after spending 6 months in jail for using cocaine. Bush only polled 9% to Clinton’s 85%, so don’t expect to see Dole win here! Clinton
West Virginia 5 Clinton A strongly Democratic state, Clinton won here by 13 points in 1992. Expect another strong showing this year. Clinton
Wisconsin 11 Clinton Difficult to see the land of picket fences turning to Bob Dole, although Clinton only led by just over 4 points in 1992 and the Republican Governor, Tommy Thompson, is popular and influential. He said recently that the Dole campaign was second only to George Bush’s in terms of ineptness. Another one of the key states around the Great Lakes, late October polling shows Clinton well ahead. Clinton
Wyoming 3 Bush Bush won by 5.6 points last time and this state is counted as one where Dole is ahead. Dole

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Malcolm Farnsworth
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