A major swing of around 8% has delivered the seat of Frankston East to the ALP. Victory for the ALP gives it 42 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly, the coalition 43, and Independents 3.
Attention now turns to the formation of a minority Coalition or Labor government. The Kennett government needs the support of two independents, whilst the ALP would require all three.
The Independents, Russell Savage, Susan Davies and Craig Ingram, will announce who they will support at 11am on Monday 18 October. The 3 members will announce their decisions separately, an indication that they may be split. Susan Davies will announce her decision at Apex Park in Wonthaggi.
Whilst there is much media speculation this weekend that the Kennett government is about to be defeated, the conservative nature of the electorates Savage and Ingram represent would point to their supporting the coalition, although nothing is certain in the current political climate.
The decision by the Independents will hinge on their reaction to the undertakings given by the coalition and Labor to a Charter of demands.