5.45pm – My predictions for tonight’s election count:
- Government to be returned with increased majority.
- Queensland: ALP will lose Dickson, Ryan, and a couple of Brisbane seats, perhaps Bowman and Lilley. ALP will not pick up seats, although Hinkler is a possibility. Katter wins Kennedy, although I’m not confident of this one.
- New South Wales: ALP will lose Macarthur, Parramatta, (both notionally Labor), Dobell, and probably get pounded in other safe seats around Sydney, one at least of which will be lost. Tony Abbott will survive in Warringah. Tony Windsor wins New England. Peter Andren wins Calare. Larry Anthony loses Richmond to ALP. Gary Nairn survives in Eden-Monaro.
- Victoria: ALP will pick up Ballarat and McEwen, but could lose Bendigo and McMillan. ALP will come close in La Trobe, but not pick up Deakin. Chisholm is the one to watch. Peter McGauran will be in trouble in Gippsland, but will hang on. Sophie Panopolous in Indi will lose to the National, Don Chambers.
- Tasmania: ALP will lose Bass and possibly one other.
- South Australia: ALP could pick up Makin, but not Hindmarsh. The Democrats will be soundly trounced in Mayo and Boothby, especially Mayo.
- Western Australia: ALP could lose Swan and Canning, and probably won’t pick up the new seat, Hasluck. Barry Haase will hold onto Kalgoorlie.
- Northern Territory: ALP to win both seats (this is based on the appeal of Clare Martin.)
- ACT: ALP easily wins both seats.
- Senate: Bob Brown loses in Tasmania. Hanson loses in Queensland. Democrats win only 3 of the 5 up for election.
Thus, my prediction for the state of the House is:
– ALP 64 seats maximum
– Coalition 83
– Independent 3
– ALP primary vote in House: 41% Senate: 37%
– Coalition primary vote in House: 44% Senate: 40%
– Democrat primary vote in House: 8% Senate: 12%
– Others primary vote in House: 7% Senate: 11%
My prediction is based on what I believe is the success of the fear campaign, the hostility to refugees, historical conservatism that manifests itself in an unwillingness to change, the success of the campaign to portray Beazley as weak and waffly, and disillusionment by ALP and other left of centre voters about the party’s approach to policy issues in general, as well as the current stuff.
I would not be surprised to see Howard romp home and effectively repeat his 1996 performance, although I’m predicting less than that.
The caveat: logic says that ALP wins in WA, Qld, NT, ACT, Ryan and even the swing in Aston can’t be so easily reversed. In terms of polling, Morgan was the only one to come close with Kennett and a couple of other elections. There is deep hostility to Howard in many parts of the community. BUT, I don’t think this will result in a Labor victory. Beazley is seen as a nice bloke, solid, reliable, etc., but I don’t believe this will be enough.
These predictions were posted on the site at 5.50pm, ten minutes before the polls closed.
