2007 Election: Update On Doubtful Seats

Labor Government Lead Dwindling; 16-Seat Majority Likely; 8 Seats Still Undecided

Dec 07 – 6.15pm – Nearly two weeks after polling day, counting continues for all electorates in the House of Representatives, with absentee, postal and declaration votes trickling in. The Australian Electoral Commission now has the ALP on 80 seats, the Liberals 50, The Nationals 10, and independents 2. There are 8 seats still in doubt. La Trobe is no longer regarded as doubtful, retained by the Liberal member, Jason Wood, by 889 votes.

Herbert – (Qld – Liberal) – Lib ahead by 323.
Dickson (Qld – Liberal) – Lib ahead by 221.
Bowman (Qld – Liberal) – Lib ahead by 102.
Swan (WA – Labor) – Lib ahead by 280.
Solomon (NT – CLP) – ALP ahead by 196.
Robertson – (NSW – Liberal) – ALP ahead by 182.
McEwen – (Vic – Liberal) – Lib ahead by 22.
Flynn (Qld – open) – ALP ahead by 459.

On these figures, a final result seems likely to deliver 83 ALP, 65 Coalition, 2 independents. This would produce a Labor majority of 16 (15 on the floor of the House).

Doubtful Seats Still Doubtful

Nov 30 – 8.45pm – Counting continues for all electorates in the House of Representatives, with absentee, postal and declaration votes trickling in. The deadline for the votes is late next week. The ALP is now 1,158 votes ahead in Corangamite and the AEC has removed it from its list of doubtful seats. McEwen and Robertson have been reinstated:

Herbert – (Qld – Liberal) – Lib ahead by 60.
Dickson (Qld – Liberal) – Lib ahead by 106.
Bowman (Qld – Liberal) – ALP ahead by 116.
Swan (WA – Labor) – Lib ahead by 239.
Solomon (NT – CLP) – ALP ahead by 262.
Robertson – (NSW – Liberal) – ALP ahead by 296.
McEwen – (Vic – Liberal) – Lib ahead by 396.
La Trobe (Vic – Liberal) – Lib ahead by 544.
Flynn (Qld – open) – ALP ahead by 636.

The AEC has the ALP winning 80 seats, the Liberals 49, The Nationals 10, and independents 2. A final result seems likely to deliver 84 or 85 seats to the ALP.

ALP Still On 80 Seats As Counting Continues

Nov 30 – 12.55am – The Australian Electoral Commission currently has the ALP with 80 seats, the Liberals 50, The Nationals 10, and independents 2. It lists 8 seats as doubtful:

Herbert – (Qld – Liberal) – ALP ahead by 27.
Bowman (Qld – Liberal) – ALP ahead by 60.
Swan (WA – Labor) – Lib ahead by 187.
Dickson (Qld – Liberal) – Lib ahead by 207.
Solomon (NT – CLP) – ALP ahead by 262.
Flynn (Qld – open) – ALP ahead by 590.
La Trobe (Vic – Liberal) – Lib ahead by 661.
Corangamite (Vic – Liberal) – ALP ahead by 764.

The NSW seat of Macarthur is no longer listed as doubtful. The sitting Liberal member, Pat Farmer, is ahead by 711 votes.

New Doubtfuls Emerge

Nov 28 – 11.00pm – The A.E.C. has added Corangamite, Solomon and Flynn to the six seats classified as doubtful yesterday. Latest counting shows:

Bowman (Qld – Liberal) – ALP ahead by 21.
Herbert – (Qld – Liberal) – ALP ahead by 108.
Swan (WA – Labor) – Lib ahead by 153.
Dickson (Qld – Liberal) – Lib ahead by 268.
Solomon (NT – CLP) – ALP ahead by 428.
Flynn (Qld – open) – ALP ahead by 590.
Macarthur (Qld – Liberal) – Lib ahead by 598.
La Trobe (Vic – Liberal) – Lib ahead by 730.
Corangamite (Vic – Liberal) – ALP ahead by 767.

In Bennelong, Labor’s Maxine McKew is 2,445 votes ahead of John Howard.

Update On Doubtful Seats

Nov 27 – 5.15pm – Whilst counting is not complete, the Australian Electoral Commission has judged the ALP to have won 83 seats, the Liberals 49, Nationals 10, and Independents 2.

Earlier today, the AEC removed McEwen from its doubtful list after the sitting Liberal member, Fran Bailey, established a lead of 872 votes. There are now 6 doubtful seats:

Bowman (Qld – Liberal) – Lib ahead by 27.
Swan (WA – Labor) – Lib ahead by 63.
Dickson (Qld – Liberal) – ALP ahead by 234.
Macarthur (Qld – Liberal) – Lib ahead by 508.
Herbert – (Qld – Liberal) – ALP ahead by 560.
La Trobe (Vic – Liberal) – Lib ahead by 712.

The best guess is that Bowman and Swan remain doubtful, whilst the current leaders will win the other seats. On this basis, the worst result for the ALP will be 85 seats, a majority of 20, or 19 after the provision of a Speaker. The most likely best result for the ALP is 87 seats, a majority of 24, or 23 after the provision of a Speaker.