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House Of Representatives Undecided Seats: Latest Figures

These are the latest figures for seats that remain undecided in the House of Representatives.

The 15 seats in the table all have a margin of close-to or less than 1000 votes. Most have a margin of less than 1%. Experience shows that a margin of 1000 votes is unlikely to be reversed by postal, absent and declaration votes.

Of the 15 seats, the Coalition is ahead in 7, the ALP is ahead in 7 and the Nick Xenophon Team leads in 1.

On current counting, the Coalition and ALP each have a definite 65 seats, although estimates vary. If the Coalition were to maintain its lead in the 7 seats it is ahead in, it would have 72 seats, four short of an absolute majority of 76. If the ALP were to maintain its lead in the other 7 seats, it would have 72 seats, four short of an absolute majority. A government victory with 76 seats is possible, but the coalition will need to capture 11 seats from the list below. It cannot win Batman.

The seats of Batman, La Trobe and Melbourne Ports, in Victoria, and Robertson, in NSW, are not seriously in doubt. In Queensland, it is unlikely that Capricornia, Herbert and Petrie will change. In South Australia, it is not expected that NXT will win Barker, but very few votes have been posted as yet. Given the large number of pre-poll and postal votes, I have adopted an ultra-cautious approach to the list but I expect to be able to remove seats from this list in the next couple of days.

Significant new figures will not be available until Tuesday, July 5, when the counting of postal votes begins.

The table will be updated each day until all seats are decided.

House of Representatives – Undecided Seats
No. Seat Vote Margin Incumbent Party 2PP % Main Opponent 2PP % Swing %
NEW SOUTH WALES
1.
Gilmore
405
Ann Sudmalis (Lib)
50.23
Fiona Phillips (ALP)
49.77
3.55 to ALP
2.
Robertson
1,183
Lucy Wicks (Lib)
50.73
Anne Charlton (ALP)
49.27
2.36 to ALP
VICTORIA
3.
Batman
2,330
David Feeney (ALP)
51.62
Alex Bhathal (Greens)
48.38
8.99 to Greens
4.
Chisholm
66
Stefanie Perri (ALP)
49.95
Julia Banks (Lib)
50.05
1.65 to Liberal
5.
Dunkley
438
Chris Crewther (Lib)
50.32
Peta Murphy (ALP)
49.68
5.25 to ALP
6.
La Trobe
1,306
Jason Wood (Lib)
50.93
Simon Curtis (ALP)
49.07
3.08 to ALP
7.
Melbourne Ports
3,252
Michael Danby (ALP)
52.73
Owen Guest (Lib)
47.27
0.83 to Liberal
QUEENSLAND
8.
Capricornia
991
Michelle Landry (LNP)
49.32
Leisa Neaton (ALP)
50.68
1.45 to ALP
9.
Forde
149
Bert van Manen (LNP)
49.89
Des Hardman (ALP)
50.11
4.49 to ALP
10.
Herbert
1,084
Ewen Jones (LNP)
49.26
Cathy O’Toole (ALP)
50.74
6.91 to ALP
11.
Petrie
1,138
Luke Howarth (LNP)
50.79
Jacqui Pedersen (ALP)
49.21
0.26 to LNP
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
12.
Cowan
959
Luke Simpkins (Lib)
49.27
Anne Aly (ALP)
50.73
5.25 to ALP
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
13.
Barker
99
Tony Pasin (Lib)
60.12
James Stacey (NXT)
39.88
39.88 to NXT
14.
Grey
782
Rowan Ramsey (Lib)
43.89
Andrea Broadfoot (NXT)
56.11
56.11 to NXT
15.
Hindmarsh
432
Matt Williams (Lib)
49.73
Steve Georganas (ALP)
50.27
2.16 to ALP

 

Source: Australian Electoral Commission

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Malcolm Farnsworth
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