11.45pm – A path to a narrow victory for the Turnbull government emerged in today’s counting of votes for seats in the House of Representatives.
The five undecided seats in which the Coalition previously led have now been listed as settled: Gilmore, Chisholm, Dunkley, Barker and Grey. In all of these the Liberal Party’s lead grew as postal and other declaration votes were added to the count. In the case of the latter two South Australian electorates, where the Nick Xenophon Team emerged as the main opposition to the Liberals, the counting of two-candidate-preferred has confirmed the seats as retained by the Liberals.
Similarly, I have removed Melbourne Ports from the list of undecided seats. Preference flows mean that the seat is not likely to see the Greens take second place ahead of the ALP.
However, counting today revealed that the Queensland electorate of Flynn has come into play. This seat had been classified as an ALP gain but counting of postal votes saw a large drop in the ALP’s lead, from 1824 to 1065. LNP officials are said to be very confident that a 65% flow of preferences from postal votes makes the seat winnable.
These changes mean that the Coalition now has 73 seats, the ALP 66, and Others 5.
Of the 6 remaining seats in doubt, the Coalition is ahead in 1 (Forde, where the ALP led yesterday) and the ALP is ahead in 5 (Capricornia, Flynn, Herbert, Hindmarsh and Cowan). If these leads were maintained, the Coalition would finish with 74 seats, the ALP 71, and Others 5. The government would be two seats short of an absolute majority. However, Liberal Party officials are reported to be confident that the seats are moving in their direction. They are said to be confident of reaching 76.
It is likely that the counting of postal and other declaration votes on Thursday, July 7, will clarify the situation. Whilst a hung parliament remains possible, the return of the Turnbull government with a narrow majority is now also a realistic possibility.
| House of Representatives – Undecided Seats | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | Seat | Margin (Tue) |
Margin (Wed) |
Incumbent Party | 2PP % | Main Opponent | 2PP % | Swing % |
| QUEENSLAND | ||||||||
| Capricornia | Michelle Landry (LNP) | Leisa Neaton (ALP) | 1.26 to ALP | |||||
| Flynn | Ken O’Dowd (LNP) | Zac Beers (ALP) | 7.28 to ALP | |||||
| Forde | Bert van Manen (LNP) | Des Hardman (ALP) | 4.19 to ALP | |||||
| Herbert | Ewen Jones (LNP) | Cathy O’Toole (ALP) | 6.57 to ALP | |||||
| WESTERN AUSTRALIA | ||||||||
| Cowan | Luke Simpkins (Lib) | Anne Aly (ALP) | 5.03 to ALP | |||||
| SOUTH AUSTRALIA | ||||||||
| Hindmarsh | Matt Williams (Lib) | Steve Georganas (ALP) | 1.98 to ALP | |||||
| House of Representatives – SEATS NO LONGER IN DOUBT | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | Seat | Vote Margin | Incumbent Party | 2PP % | Main Opponent | 2PP % | Swing % |
| NEW SOUTH WALES | |||||||
| Gilmore | Ann Sudmalis (Lib) | Fiona Phillips (ALP) | 3.25 to ALP | ||||
| Robertson | Lucy Wicks (Lib) | Anne Charlton (ALP) | 2.01 to ALP | ||||
| VICTORIA | |||||||
| Batman | David Feeney (ALP) | Alex Bhathal (Greens) | 8.74 to Greens | ||||
| Chisholm | Stefanie Perri (ALP) | Julia Banks (Lib) | 2.57 to Liberal | ||||
| Dunkley | Chris Crewther (Lib) | Peta Murphy (ALP) | 4.63 to ALP | ||||
| La Trobe | Jason Wood (Lib) | Simon Curtis (ALP) | 3.06 to ALP | ||||
| Melbourne Ports | Michael Danby (ALP) | Owen Guest (Lib) | 1.04 to Liberal | ||||
| QUEENSLAND | |||||||
| Petrie | Luke Howarth (LNP) | Jacqui Pedersen (ALP) | 0.73 to LNP | ||||
| SOUTH AUSTRALIA | |||||||
| Barker | Tony Pasin (Lib) | James Stacey (NXT) | 47.26 to NXT | ||||
| Grey | Rowan Ramsey (Lib) | Andrea Broadfoot (NXT) | 43.67 to NXT | ||||
| House of Representatives – Decided Seats | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Seats | Total | ||||||
| AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY | NSW (24): Barton, Blaxland, Chifley, Cunningham, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Fowler, Grayndler, Greenway, Hunter, Kingsford Smith, Lindsay, Macarthur, Macquarie, McMahon, Newcastle, Parramatta, Paterson, Richmond, Shortland, Sydney, Watson, Werriwa, Whitlam. VIC (18): Ballarat, Batman, Bendigo, Bruce, Calwell, Corio, Gellibrand, Gorton, Holt, Hotham, Isaacs, Jagajaga, Lalor, Maribyrnong, McEwen, Melbourne Ports, Scullin, Wills. QLD (7): Blair, Griffith, Lilley, Longman, Moreton, Oxley, Rankin. WA (4): Brand, Burt, Fremantle. Perth. SA (5): Adelaide, Kingston, Makin, Port Adelaide, Wakefield. TAS (4): Bass, Braddon, Franklin, Lyons. ACT (2): Canberra, Fenner. NT (2): Lingiari, Solomon. |
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| The COALITION consists of the Liberal Party, Liberal National Party (Qld) and The Nationals. They are shown separately below. The Coalition has 73 seats. | ||||||||
| LIBERAL | NSW (16): Banks, Bennelong, Berowra, Bradfield, Cook, Farrer, Gilmore, Hughes, Hume, Mackellar, Mitchell, North Sydney, Reid, Robertson, Warringah, Wentworth. VIC (14): Aston, Casey, Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin, Dunkley, Flinders, Goldstein, Higgins, Kooyong, La Trobe, McMillan, Menzies, Wannon. WA (11): Canning, Curtin, Durack, Forrest, Hasluck, Moore, O’Connor, Pearce, Stirling, Swan, Tangney. SA (4): Barker, Boothby, Grey, Sturt. |
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| LIBERAL NATIONAL (LNP-QLD) | QLD (18): Bonner, Bowman, Brisbane, Dawson, Dickson, Fadden, Fairfax, Fisher, Groom, Hinkler, Leichhardt, Maranoa, McPherson, Moncrieff, Petrie, Ryan, Wide Bay, Wright | |||||||
| NATIONALS | NSW (7): Calare, Cowper, Lyne, New England, Page, Parkes, Riverina. VIC (3): Gippsland, Mallee, Murray. |
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| GREENS | VIC (1): Melbourne. | |||||||
| NICK XENOPHON TEAM (NXT) | SA (1): Mayo. | |||||||
| INDEPENDENT | VIC (1): Indi. QLD (1): Kennedy. TAS (1): Denison. |
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| IN DOUBT | QLD (4): Capricornia, Flynn, Forde, Herbert. WA (1): Cowan. SA (1):Hindmarsh. |
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| TOTAL | ||||||||
Source: Australian Electoral Commission
