Press "Enter" to skip to content

Undecided Seats: Turnbull Edges Towards Narrow Victory

11.45pm – A path to a narrow victory for the Turnbull government emerged in today’s counting of votes for seats in the House of Representatives.

The five undecided seats in which the Coalition previously led have now been listed as settled: Gilmore, Chisholm, Dunkley, Barker and Grey. In all of these the Liberal Party’s lead grew as postal and other declaration votes were added to the count. In the case of the latter two South Australian electorates, where the Nick Xenophon Team emerged as the main opposition to the Liberals, the counting of two-candidate-preferred has confirmed the seats as retained by the Liberals.

Similarly, I have removed Melbourne Ports from the list of undecided seats. Preference flows mean that the seat is not likely to see the Greens take second place ahead of the ALP.

However, counting today revealed that the Queensland electorate of Flynn has come into play. This seat had been classified as an ALP gain but counting of postal votes saw a large drop in the ALP’s lead, from 1824 to 1065. LNP officials are said to be very confident that a 65% flow of preferences from postal votes makes the seat winnable.

These changes mean that the Coalition now has 73 seats, the ALP 66, and Others 5.

Of the 6 remaining seats in doubt, the Coalition is ahead in 1 (Forde, where the ALP led yesterday) and the ALP is ahead in 5 (Capricornia, Flynn, Herbert, Hindmarsh and Cowan). If these leads were maintained, the Coalition would finish with 74 seats, the ALP 71, and Others 5. The government would be two seats short of an absolute majority. However, Liberal Party officials are reported to be confident that the seats are moving in their direction. They are said to be confident of reaching 76.

It is likely that the counting of postal and other declaration votes on Thursday, July 7, will clarify the situation. Whilst a hung parliament remains possible, the return of the Turnbull government with a narrow majority is now also a realistic possibility.

House of Representatives – Undecided Seats
No. Seat Margin
(Tue)
Margin
(Wed)
Incumbent Party 2PP % Main Opponent 2PP % Swing %
QUEENSLAND
1.
Capricornia
994
732
Michelle Landry (LNP)
49.51
Leisa Neaton (ALP)
50.49
1.26 to ALP
2.
Flynn
1,824
1,065
Ken O’Dowd (LNP)
49.25
Zac Beers (ALP)
50.75
7.28 to ALP
3.
Forde
104 (ALP)
265 (LNP)
Bert van Manen (LNP)
50.19
Des Hardman (ALP)
49.81
4.19 to ALP
4.
Herbert
694
620
Ewen Jones (LNP)
49.60
Cathy O’Toole (ALP)
50.40
6.57 to ALP
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
5.
Cowan
959
701
Luke Simpkins (Lib)
49.49
Anne Aly (ALP)
50.51
5.03 to ALP
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
6.
Hindmarsh
347
151
Matt Williams (Lib)
49.91
Steve Georganas (ALP)
50.09
1.98 to ALP

 

*

House of Representatives – SEATS NO LONGER IN DOUBT
No. Seat Vote Margin Incumbent Party 2PP % Main Opponent 2PP % Swing %
NEW SOUTH WALES
1.
Gilmore
991
Ann Sudmalis (Lib)
50.53
Fiona Phillips (ALP)
49.47
3.25 to ALP
2.
Robertson
1,804
Lucy Wicks (Lib)
51.08
Anne Charlton (ALP)
49.92
2.01 to ALP
VICTORIA
3.
Batman
2,761
David Feeney (ALP)
51.87
Alex Bhathal (Greens)
48.13
8.74 to Greens
4.
Chisholm
1,394
Stefanie Perri (ALP)
49.03
Julia Banks (Lib)
50.97
2.57 to Liberal
5.
Dunkley
1,387
Chris Crewther (Lib)
50.94
Peta Murphy (ALP)
49.06
4.63 to ALP
6.
La Trobe
1,350
Jason Wood (Lib)
50.95
Simon Curtis (ALP)
49.05
3.06 to ALP
7.
Melbourne Ports
3,087
Michael Danby (ALP)
52.52
Owen Guest (Lib)
47.48
1.04 to Liberal
QUEENSLAND
8.
Petrie
1,922
Luke Howarth (LNP)
51.26
Jacqui Pedersen (ALP)
48.74
0.73 to LNP
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
9.
Barker
394
Tony Pasin (Lib)
52.74
James Stacey (NXT)
47.26
47.26 to NXT
10.
Grey
5,060
Rowan Ramsey (Lib)
56.33
Andrea Broadfoot (NXT)
43.67
43.67 to NXT

*

House of Representatives – Decided Seats
Party Seats Total
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY NSW (24): Barton, Blaxland, Chifley, Cunningham, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Fowler, Grayndler, Greenway, Hunter, Kingsford Smith, Lindsay, Macarthur, Macquarie, McMahon, Newcastle, Parramatta, Paterson, Richmond, Shortland, Sydney, Watson, Werriwa, Whitlam.
VIC (18): Ballarat, Batman, Bendigo, Bruce, Calwell, Corio, Gellibrand, Gorton, Holt, Hotham, Isaacs, Jagajaga, Lalor, Maribyrnong, McEwen, Melbourne Ports, Scullin, Wills.
QLD (7): Blair, Griffith, Lilley, Longman, Moreton, Oxley, Rankin.
WA (4): Brand, Burt, Fremantle. Perth.
SA (5): Adelaide, Kingston, Makin, Port Adelaide, Wakefield.
TAS (4): Bass, Braddon, Franklin, Lyons.
ACT (2): Canberra, Fenner.
NT (2): Lingiari, Solomon.
66
The COALITION consists of the Liberal Party, Liberal National Party (Qld) and The Nationals. They are shown separately below. The Coalition has 73 seats.
LIBERAL NSW (16): Banks, Bennelong, Berowra, Bradfield, Cook, Farrer, Gilmore, Hughes, Hume, Mackellar, Mitchell, North Sydney, Reid, Robertson, Warringah, Wentworth.
VIC (14): Aston, Casey, Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin, Dunkley, Flinders, Goldstein, Higgins, Kooyong, La Trobe, McMillan, Menzies, Wannon.
WA (11): Canning, Curtin, Durack, Forrest, Hasluck, Moore, O’Connor, Pearce, Stirling, Swan, Tangney.
SA (4): Barker, Boothby, Grey, Sturt.
45
LIBERAL NATIONAL (LNP-QLD) QLD (18): Bonner, Bowman, Brisbane, Dawson, Dickson, Fadden, Fairfax, Fisher, Groom, Hinkler, Leichhardt, Maranoa, McPherson, Moncrieff, Petrie, Ryan, Wide Bay, Wright
18
NATIONALS NSW (7): Calare, Cowper, Lyne, New England, Page, Parkes, Riverina.
VIC (3): Gippsland, Mallee, Murray.
10
GREENS VIC (1): Melbourne.
1
NICK XENOPHON TEAM (NXT) SA (1): Mayo.
1
INDEPENDENT VIC (1): Indi.
QLD (1): Kennedy.
TAS (1): Denison.
3
IN DOUBT QLD (4): Capricornia, Flynn, Forde, Herbert.
WA (1): Cowan.
SA (1):Hindmarsh.
6
TOTAL
150

Source: Australian Electoral Commission

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
AustralianPolitics.com
Malcolm Farnsworth
© 1995-2024