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Government’s Victory Assured But Still No Definite Results In Key Seats

10.00pm – The Turnbull government’s position improved in counting of House of Representatives seats today but an absolute majority of 76 seats is still not confirmed.

There is no change to the standing of the various parties tonight. The Coalition has 74 seats, the ALP 66, and Others 5.

The ALP remains ahead in all of the 5 remaining doubtful seats – Capricornia, Flynn, Herbert, Hindmarsh and Cowan. If these leads are maintained, the Coalition will finish with 74 seats, the ALP 71, and Others 5.

However, the ALP’s lead narrowed in 4 seats. In Capricornia, the ALP’s lead fell from 476 to 174. A total of 9,868 declaration votes remain to be counted, including 4,711 postals and 3,268 absentee votes. The LNP has been receiving 57.54% of postal votes, but no absentees have yet been counted. The ALP received 50.67% of absentees in the last election.

In Flynn, the ALP’s lead has shrunk from 646 to just 7. There are 7,734 declaration votes still to count, including 4,640 postals and 1,728 absentees. The LNP has been receiving 63.93% of postals. In 2013, the LNP also garnered 57.19% of absentees. At some point, Flynn is expected to move into the Coalition’s column.

In Herbert, the ALP’s lead has declined from 449 yesterday to 348. There are 8,387 votes still to count and the LNP is receiving 57.52% of postal votes. In 2013, the LNP also gathered 56.03% of absentees.

In the Western Australian seat of Cowan, the ALP remains ahead by 427 votes, down from 534 yesterday. There are still 10,762 votes to be counted, around half of which are absentees. There are only 790 postals remaining. The Liberals have received 55.31% of postals, whilst the ALP has received 50.84% of absentees. The ALP is confident of holding Cowan.

In the South Australian electorate of Hindmarsh, the ALP’s candidate, former member Steve Georganas, is now 177 votes ahead. His lead had dropped as low as 8 yesterday before settling on 68 at the end of the day. Whilst the Liberals have taken 54.33% of postals, the ALP is receiving 54.43% of absentees. There are 5,060 votes left to count, including 1,726 postals and 1,500 absentees. The ALP is said to be confident that they can remain far enough ahead to reclaim the seat.

After yesterday’s annnouncement by Bob Katter that he would offer support to the government on Supply and matters of Confidence, two more independents followed suit today. The member for Indi, Cathy McGowan, and the member for Denison, Andrew Wilkie, both offered support to the government. This ensures that the government will have 77 votes on matters that involve the government’s survival and up to 80 votes if it is able to hold the 3 Queensland seats.

The survival of the government is not in doubt. The ABC’s Antony Green called the election for the government on ABC News tonight. Green said he expects the Coalition to have 76 seats, or anything from 75 to 77.

Counting will continue over the weekend.

House of Representatives – Undecided Seats
No. Seat Margin
(Thu)
Margin
(Fri)
Incumbent Party 2PP % Main Opponent 2PP % Swing %
QUEENSLAND
1.
Capricornia
476
175
Michelle Landry (LNP)
49.89
Leisa Neaton (ALP)
50.11
0.88 to ALP
2.
Flynn
646
7
Ken O’Dowd (LNP)
50.00
Zac Beers (ALP)
50.00
6.63 to ALP
3.
Herbert
449
348
Ewen Jones (LNP)
49.78
Cathy O’Toole (ALP)
50.22
6.39 to ALP
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
4.
Cowan
534
427
Luke Simpkins (Lib)
49.70
Anne Aly (ALP)
50.30
4.82 to ALP
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
5.
Hindmarsh
68
177
Matt Williams (Lib)
49.90
Steve Georganas (ALP)
50.10
1.99 to ALP

 

*

House of Representatives – SEATS NO LONGER IN DOUBT
No. Seat Vote Margin Incumbent Party 2PP % Main Opponent 2PP % Swing %
NEW SOUTH WALES
1.
Gilmore
1,460
Ann Sudmalis (Lib)
50.76
Fiona Phillips (ALP)
49.24
3.02 to ALP
2.
Robertson
2,178
Lucy Wicks (Lib)
51.26
Anne Charlton (ALP)
49.74
1.83 to ALP
VICTORIA
3.
Batman
2,942
David Feeney (ALP)
51.91
Alex Bhathal (Greens)
48.09
8.70 to Greens
4.
Chisholm
2,012
Stefanie Perri (ALP)
48.67
Julia Banks (Lib)
51.33
2.93 to Liberal
5.
Dunkley
2,025
Chris Crewther (Lib)
51.33
Peta Murphy (ALP)
48.67
4.24 to ALP
6.
La Trobe
2,029
Jason Wood (Lib)
51.34
Simon Curtis (ALP)
48.66
2.67 to ALP
7.
Melbourne Ports
2,835
Michael Danby (ALP)
52.17
Owen Guest (Lib)
47.83
1.39 to Liberal
QUEENSLAND
8.
Forde
783
Bert van Manen (LNP)
50.51
Des Hardman (ALP)
49.49
3.87 to ALP
9.
Petrie
2,359
Luke Howarth (LNP)
51.47
Jacqui Pedersen (ALP)
48.53
0.94 to LNP
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
10.
Barker
3,371
Tony Pasin (Lib)
53.49
James Stacey (NXT)
46.51
46.51 to NXT
11.
Grey
3,739
Rowan Ramsey (Lib)
52.39
Andrea Broadfoot (NXT)
47.61
47.61 to NXT



*

House of Representatives – Decided Seats
Party Seats Total
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY NSW (24): Barton, Blaxland, Chifley, Cunningham, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Fowler, Grayndler, Greenway, Hunter, Kingsford Smith, Lindsay, Macarthur, Macquarie, McMahon, Newcastle, Parramatta, Paterson, Richmond, Shortland, Sydney, Watson, Werriwa, Whitlam.
VIC (18): Ballarat, Batman, Bendigo, Bruce, Calwell, Corio, Gellibrand, Gorton, Holt, Hotham, Isaacs, Jagajaga, Lalor, Maribyrnong, McEwen, Melbourne Ports, Scullin, Wills.
QLD (7): Blair, Griffith, Lilley, Longman, Moreton, Oxley, Rankin.
WA (4): Brand, Burt, Fremantle. Perth.
SA (5): Adelaide, Kingston, Makin, Port Adelaide, Wakefield.
TAS (4): Bass, Braddon, Franklin, Lyons.
ACT (2): Canberra, Fenner.
NT (2): Lingiari, Solomon.
66
The COALITION consists of the Liberal Party, Liberal National Party (Qld) and The Nationals. They are shown separately below. The Coalition has 74 seats.
LIBERAL NSW (16): Banks, Bennelong, Berowra, Bradfield, Cook, Farrer, Gilmore, Hughes, Hume, Mackellar, Mitchell, North Sydney, Reid, Robertson, Warringah, Wentworth.
VIC (14): Aston, Casey, Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin, Dunkley, Flinders, Goldstein, Higgins, Kooyong, La Trobe, McMillan, Menzies, Wannon.
WA (11): Canning, Curtin, Durack, Forrest, Hasluck, Moore, O’Connor, Pearce, Stirling, Swan, Tangney.
SA (4): Barker, Boothby, Grey, Sturt.
45
LIBERAL NATIONAL (LNP-QLD) QLD (19): Bonner, Bowman, Brisbane, Dawson, Dickson, Fadden, Fairfax, Fisher, Forde Groom, Hinkler, Leichhardt, Maranoa, McPherson, Moncrieff, Petrie, Ryan, Wide Bay, Wright
19
NATIONALS NSW (7): Calare, Cowper, Lyne, New England, Page, Parkes, Riverina.
VIC (3): Gippsland, Mallee, Murray.
10
GREENS VIC (1): Melbourne.
1
NICK XENOPHON TEAM (NXT) SA (1): Mayo.
1
INDEPENDENT VIC (1): Indi.
QLD (1): Kennedy.
TAS (1): Denison.
3
IN DOUBT QLD (4): Capricornia, Flynn, Forde, Herbert.
WA (1): Cowan.
SA (1): Hindmarsh.
6
TOTAL
150



Source: Australian Electoral Commission

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