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As Turnbull Claims Election Victory, Coalition Seems On Track For 76 Seats

11.55pm – Eight days after the Federal Election, Malcolm Turnbull today claimed victory, following a concession by Bill Shorten.

In weekend counting, the LNP’s position has strengthened in two seats, as has the ALP’s. If the current leads hold, the Coalition will end up holding 76 seats, the ALP 69, and Others 5.

There now seems to be general agreement that the ALP is likely to take the electorates of Hindmarsh and Cowan, with the possibility of securing Herbert.

In Hindmarsh, the ALP leads by 348, with 7,766 declaration votes still to count. In Cowan, the ALP leads by 487, with 8,476 to count. Whilst narrow, these leads have firmed and the ALP is almost certain to retain both seats.

In the Queensland seats of Capricornia and Flynn, the LNP seems well-placed to hold both. In Capricornia, the LNP took the lead on Saturday and is now ahead by 148 votes, with 7,186 declaration votes still to count. The LNP is winning 58.57% of postals and 50.38% of absentees. In Flynn, the LNP also took the lead on Saturday and is now ahead by 391 votes, with 5,783 votes to count. The LNP is winning 63.54% of postals but the ALP is winning 54.64% of absentees.

The situation in Herbert is less clear. The ALP remains in the lead by 302 votes, with 6,910 to count, including 3,450 postals. The LNP is winning 57.01% of postals, but the ALP is receiving 53.33% of absentees. 1,136 provisional votes and 1,463 declaration pre-poll votes are yet to be counted but it is not known how these will break.

If the government secures 76 seats, it can take office as a majority government. It has already secured agreement from 3 crossbenchers – Bob Katter, Cathy McGowan and Andrew Wilkie – for support on Supply and Confidence. If it falls short and only secures 75 seats, it can still survive in the Parliament. Opposition Leader Bill Shorten acknowledged this today.

Counting continues tomorrow. Attention will now start turning to the Senate count.

House of Representatives – Undecided Seats
No. Seat Margin
(Fri)
Margin
(Sun)
Incumbent Party 2PP % Main Opponent 2PP % Swing %
QUEENSLAND
1.
Capricornia
175
148
Michelle Landry (LNP)
50.09
Leisa Neaton (ALP)
49.91
0.68 to ALP
2.
Flynn
7
391
Ken O’Dowd (LNP)
50.25
Zac Beers (ALP)
49.75
6.28 to ALP
3.
Herbert
348
302
Ewen Jones (LNP)
49.81
Cathy O’Toole (ALP)
50.19
6.36 to ALP
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
4.
Cowan
427
487
Luke Simpkins (Lib)
49.67
Anne Aly (ALP)
50.33
4.85 to ALP
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
5.
Hindmarsh
177
348
Matt Williams (Lib)
49.81
Steve Georganas (ALP)
50.19
2.08 to ALP

*

House of Representatives – Decided Seats
Party Seats Total
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY NSW (24): Barton, Blaxland, Chifley, Cunningham, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Fowler, Grayndler, Greenway, Hunter, Kingsford Smith, Lindsay, Macarthur, Macquarie, McMahon, Newcastle, Parramatta, Paterson, Richmond, Shortland, Sydney, Watson, Werriwa, Whitlam.
VIC (18): Ballarat, Batman, Bendigo, Bruce, Calwell, Corio, Gellibrand, Gorton, Holt, Hotham, Isaacs, Jagajaga, Lalor, Maribyrnong, McEwen, Melbourne Ports, Scullin, Wills.
QLD (7): Blair, Griffith, Lilley, Longman, Moreton, Oxley, Rankin.
WA (4): Brand, Burt, Fremantle. Perth.
SA (5): Adelaide, Kingston, Makin, Port Adelaide, Wakefield.
TAS (4): Bass, Braddon, Franklin, Lyons.
ACT (2): Canberra, Fenner.
NT (2): Lingiari, Solomon.
66
The COALITION consists of the Liberal Party, Liberal National Party (Qld) and The Nationals. They are shown separately below. The Coalition has 74 seats.
LIBERAL NSW (16): Banks, Bennelong, Berowra, Bradfield, Cook, Farrer, Gilmore, Hughes, Hume, Mackellar, Mitchell, North Sydney, Reid, Robertson, Warringah, Wentworth.
VIC (14): Aston, Casey, Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin, Dunkley, Flinders, Goldstein, Higgins, Kooyong, La Trobe, McMillan, Menzies, Wannon.
WA (11): Canning, Curtin, Durack, Forrest, Hasluck, Moore, O’Connor, Pearce, Stirling, Swan, Tangney.
SA (4): Barker, Boothby, Grey, Sturt.
45
LIBERAL NATIONAL (LNP-QLD) QLD (19): Bonner, Bowman, Brisbane, Dawson, Dickson, Fadden, Fairfax, Fisher, Forde, Groom, Hinkler, Leichhardt, Maranoa, McPherson, Moncrieff, Petrie, Ryan, Wide Bay, Wright
19
NATIONALS NSW (7): Calare, Cowper, Lyne, New England, Page, Parkes, Riverina.
VIC (3): Gippsland, Mallee, Murray.
10
GREENS VIC (1): Melbourne.
1
NICK XENOPHON TEAM (NXT) SA (1): Mayo.
1
INDEPENDENT VIC (1): Indi.
QLD (1): Kennedy.
TAS (1): Denison.
3
IN DOUBT QLD (3): Capricornia, Flynn, Herbert.
WA (1): Cowan.
SA (1): Hindmarsh.
5
TOTAL
150

Source: Australian Electoral Commission

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