11.50pm – The two remaining undecided seats in the 2016 federal election are no closer to finalisation, following another day’s counting. However, the government is now likely to have a majority of three in the new House.
The ALP’s lead in Hindmarsh remains unchanged at 582 votes. There are 6,125 votes still to count: 2,644 absents, 1,599 provisionals, 1,130 declaration pre-poll, and 752 postals. There is no change to the expectation that Steve Georganas will regain the seat he previously held for the ALP.
In Herbert, the ALP’s lead narrowed again, from 178 votes to 66. There are 6,016 votes left to count: 2,696 postal, 1,747 declaration pre-poll, 1,002 provisional and 571 absent. The ALP is only besting the LNP on absent votes and there is now an expectation that this seat is about to move decisively to the LNP.
If the ALP wins Hindmarsh and the Coalition wins Herbert, the final tally for the 45th Parliament will be: Coalition 77, ALP 68, Others 5. This is a Coalition majority of four over all other groups and a majority of three on the floor of the House, after a Speaker has been provided.
In the seats removed from the doubtful list yesterday, the winners extended their leads today. In Capricornia, the LNP’s lead grew from 691 votes to 739. In Flynn, the LNP’s lead grew from 933 to 1,326. In Cowan, the ALP’s lead grew from 946 votes to 1,030. The former member, Luke Simpkins, conceded defeat today in a post on Facebook.
In Melbourne Ports, the primary lead the ALP has over the Greens grew from 2,094 to 2,270. This decreases the chance of the Greens overtaking the ALP, although it remains a possibility. The sitting member, Michael Danby, has claimed that he cannot now be beaten.
| House of Representatives – Undecided Seats | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | Seat | Margin (Mon 11/7) |
Margin (Tue 12/7) |
Incumbent Party | 2PP % | Main Opponent | 2PP % | Swing % |
| QUEENSLAND | ||||||||
| Herbert | Ewen Jones (LNP) | Cathy O’Toole (ALP) | 6.21 to ALP | |||||
| SOUTH AUSTRALIA | ||||||||
| Hindmarsh | Matt Williams (Lib) | Steve Georganas (ALP) | 2.20 to ALP | |||||
| House of Representatives – Seats No Longer Doubtful | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | Seat | Margin (Mon 11/7) |
Margin (Tue 12/7) |
Incumbent Party | 2PP % | Main Opponent | 2PP % | Swing % |
| QUEENSLAND | ||||||||
| Capricornia | Michelle Landry (LNP) | Leisa Neaton (ALP) | 0.34 to ALP | |||||
| Flynn | Ken O’Dowd (LNP) | Zac Beers (ALP) | 5.73 to ALP | |||||
| WESTERN AUSTRALIA | ||||||||
| Cowan | Luke Simpkins (Lib) | Anne Aly (ALP) | 5.19 to ALP | |||||
| House of Representatives – Decided Seats | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Seats | Total | ||||||
| AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY | NSW (24): Barton, Blaxland, Chifley, Cunningham, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Fowler, Grayndler, Greenway, Hunter, Kingsford Smith, Lindsay, Macarthur, Macquarie, McMahon, Newcastle, Parramatta, Paterson, Richmond, Shortland, Sydney, Watson, Werriwa, Whitlam. VIC (18): Ballarat, Batman, Bendigo, Bruce, Calwell, Corio, Gellibrand, Gorton, Holt, Hotham, Isaacs, Jagajaga, Lalor, Maribyrnong, McEwen, Melbourne Ports, Scullin, Wills. QLD (7): Blair, Griffith, Lilley, Longman, Moreton, Oxley, Rankin. WA (5): Brand, Burt, Cowan, Fremantle. Perth. SA (5): Adelaide, Kingston, Makin, Port Adelaide, Wakefield. TAS (4): Bass, Braddon, Franklin, Lyons. ACT (2): Canberra, Fenner. NT (2): Lingiari, Solomon. |
|||||||
| The COALITION consists of the Liberal Party, Liberal National Party (Qld) and The Nationals. They are shown separately below. The Coalition has 76 seats. | ||||||||
| LIBERAL | NSW (16): Banks, Bennelong, Berowra, Bradfield, Cook, Farrer, Gilmore, Hughes, Hume, Mackellar, Mitchell, North Sydney, Reid, Robertson, Warringah, Wentworth. VIC (14): Aston, Casey, Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin, Dunkley, Flinders, Goldstein, Higgins, Kooyong, La Trobe, McMillan, Menzies, Wannon. WA (11): Canning, Curtin, Durack, Forrest, Hasluck, Moore, O’Connor, Pearce, Stirling, Swan, Tangney. SA (4): Barker, Boothby, Grey, Sturt. |
|||||||
| LIBERAL NATIONAL (LNP-QLD) | QLD (21): Bonner, Bowman, Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Fadden, Fairfax, Fisher, Flynn, Forde, Groom, Hinkler, Leichhardt, Maranoa, McPherson, Moncrieff, Petrie, Ryan, Wide Bay, Wright | |||||||
| NATIONALS | NSW (7): Calare, Cowper, Lyne, New England, Page, Parkes, Riverina. VIC (3): Gippsland, Mallee, Murray. |
|||||||
| GREENS | VIC (1): Melbourne. | |||||||
| NICK XENOPHON TEAM (NXT) | SA (1): Mayo. | |||||||
| INDEPENDENT | VIC (1): Indi. QLD (1): Kennedy. TAS (1): Denison. |
|||||||
| IN DOUBT | QLD (1): Herbert. SA (1):Hindmarsh. |
|||||||
| TOTAL | ||||||||
Source: Australian Electoral Commission
