The 120 Seats That Swung To The ALP In The Federal Election

On current figures, the national swing to the ALP in the federal election is 3.15%.

There were swings to the ALP in every State and Territory. However, the Coalition currently leads the national two-party-preferred vote with 50.34% to the ALP’s 49.66%.

The ALP secured swings to it in 120 (80%) of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.

In 59 seats, the ALP received swings of between 0.03% and 3.15%. From this group, it looks likely to win just one seat, Hindmarsh, where the swing is currently 2.20.

In another 61 seats, the pro-ALP swings were all above the national average, ranging from 3.21% to 13.45%. From these, the ALP picked up 14 seats from the Liberals, including 3 that were notionally Labor following a redistribution.

In the 30 seats that recorded the largest pro-Labor swings (from 5.26% to 13.45%), the ALP won 9 seats (including two already notionally Labor) and stacked up large increases in 17 seats it already held, including 8 in NSW.

The seats in the table below are ordered by the size of the swing to the ALP, starting with the largest.

NOTE 1: These figures are correct as of 8pm, Thursday, July 14, 2016. The figures are likely to change slightly as results are finalised. This list will be updated when final results are known.

NOTE 2: Swings can only be compared using the two-party-preferred (2PP) figures. Australia’s system of compulsory preferential voting ensures that every vote must ultimately choose between the final two candidates. Even in those seats where the final two candidates are not ALP v. Coalition, the Australian Electoral Commission calculates it anyway. There are 14 such seats in this election.

NOTE 3: The two-party swing is calculated from general election to general election. By-election results since the 2013 election are disregarded.

Seats That Swung to the Liberal Party

2016 Federal Election – Seats Swinging To the ALP
No.	Seat	State	Incumbent	Party	2013 Winner’s 2PP %	Swing to ALP %	2016 Winner’s 2PP %	Change
THE TOP 7 – SWINGS ABOVE 8%
1.	Burt	WA	new seat	Lib (notional Lib)	56.09	13.45	57.36	ALP GAIN Matt Keogh
2.	Macarthur	NSW	Russell Matheson	Lib	53.30	11.79	58.40	ALP GAIN Mike Freelander
3.	Paterson	NSW	Bob Baldwin (ret) Karen Howard	Lib (notional ALP)	50.27	10.68	60.95	ALP GAIN Meryl Swanson
4.	Bass	TAS	Andrew Nikolic	Lib	54.04	10.11	56.07	ALP GAIN Ross Hart
5.	Watson	NSW	Tony Burke	ALP	58.82	9.09	67.91
6.	Blaxland	NSW	Jason Clare	ALP	61.24	9.03	70.27
7.	Chifley	NSW	Ed Husic	ALP	60.93	8.44	69.37
7% SWINGS
8.	Brand	WA	Gary Gray (ret) Madeleine King	ALP	53.71	7.95	61.66
9.	Longman	QLD	Wyatt Roy	LNP	56.92	7.78	50.86	ALP GAIN Susan Lamb
10.	McEwen	VIC	Rob Mitchell	ALP	50.15	7.77	57.92
11.	Lingiari	NT	Warren Snowdon	ALP	50.88	7.59	58.47
12.	Wakefield	SA	Nick Champion	ALP	53.40	7.50	60.90
13.	McMahon	NSW	Chris Bowen	ALP	54.63	7.41	62.04
14.	Solomon	NT	Natasha Griggs	CLP	51.40	7.39	55.99	ALP GAIN Luke Gosling
15.	Whitlam	NSW	Stephen Jones	ALP	56.91	7.34	64.25
16.	Hunter	NSW	Joel Fitzgibbon	ALP	55.68	7.06	62.74
17.	Kingston	SA	Amanda Rishworth	ALP	59.70	7.00	66.70
6% SWINGS
18.	Port Adelaide	SA	Mark Butler	ALP	64.02	6.85	70.87
19.	Rankin	QLD	Jim Chalmers	ALP	54.78	6.47	61.25
20.	Macquarie	NSW	Louise Markus	Lib	54.48	7.03	52.55	ALP GAIN Susan Templeman
21.	Kingsford Smith	NSW	Matt Thistlethwaite	ALP	52.74	6.25	58.99
22.	Parramatta	NSW	Julie Owens	ALP	51.32	6.23	57.55
23.	Herbert	QLD	Ewen Jones	LNP	56.17	6.14	50.03
5% SWINGS
24.	Pearce	WA	Christian Porter	Lib	59.31	5.96	53.35
25.	Eden-Monaro	NSW	Peter Hendy	Lib	52.91	5.86	52.95	ALP GAIN Mike Kelly
26.	Franklin	TAS	Julie Collins	ALP	55.09	5.56	60.65
27.	Flynn	QLD	Ken O’Dowd	LNP	56.53	5.53	51.00
28.	McMillan	VIC	Russell Broadbent	Lib	61.83	5.49	56.34
29.	Oxley	QLD	Bernie Ripoll	ALP	53.77	5.29	59.06
30.	Cowan	WA	Luke Simpkins	Lib	54.52	5.26	50.74	ALP GAIN Anne Aly
31.	Maranoa	QLD	Bruce Scott (ret) David Littleproud	LNP	72.28	5.13	67.15
32.	Dickson	QLD	Peter Dutton	LNP	56.72	5.11	51.61
33.	Holt	VIC	Anthony Byrne	ALP	59.09	5.06	64.15
34.	Fowler	NSW	Chris Hayes	ALP	62.89	5.04	67.93
35.	Parkes	NSW	Mark Coulton	NAT	69.97	5.04	64.93
4% SWINGS
36.	Braddon	TAS	Brett Whiteley	Lib	52.56	4.87	52.31	ALP GAIN Justine Keay
37.	Wide Bay	QLD	Warren Truss (ret) Llew O’Brien	LNP	63.16	4.85	58.31
38.	Dobell	NSW	Karen McNamara	Lib (notional ALP)	49.82	4.73	54.91	ALP GAIN Emma McBride
39.	Canning	WA	Andrew Hastie	Lib	61.35	4.74	56.61
40.	Newcastle	NSW	Sharon Claydon	ALP	59.40	4.72	64.12
41.	Makin	SA	Tony Zappia	ALP	55.06	4.55	59.61
42.	Dawson	QLD	George Christensen	LNP	57.58	4.26	53.32
43.	Dunkley	VIC	Bruce Billson (ret) Chris Crewther	Lib	55.57	4.09	51.48
44.	Hasluck	WA	Ken Wyatt	Lib	56.02	4.08	51.94
45.	Durack	WA	Melissa Price	Lib	65.04	4.05	60.99
46.	Calwell	VIC	Maria Vamvakinou	ALP	63.86	4.02	67.88
3% SWINGS
47.	Lindsay	NSW	Fiona Scott	Lib	52.99	3.98	50.99	ALP GAIN Emma Husar
48.	Flinders	VIC	Greg Hunt	Lib	61.81	3.96	57.85
49.	Barton	NSW	Nickolas Varvaris	Lib (notional ALP)	45.61	3.95	58.34	ALP GAIN Linda Burney
50.	Sturt	SA	Christopher Pyne	Lib	60.08	3.93	56.15
51.	Menzies	VIC	Kevin Andrews	Lib	64.45	3.68	60.77
52.	Blair	QLD	Shayne Neumann	ALP	55.26	3.83	59.09
53.	Forde	QLD	Bert van Manen	LNP	54.38	3.79	50.59
54.	Gorton	VIC	Brendan O’Connor	ALP	66.12	3.78	69.90
55.	Warringah	NSW	Tony Abbott	Lib	65.32	3.75	61.57
56.	Greenway	NSW	Michelle Rowland	ALP	52.98	3.71	56.69
57.	Swan	WA	Steve Irons	Lib	57.34	3.68	53.66
58.	Lyons	TAS	Eric Hutchinson	Lib	51.22	3.55	52.33	ALP GAIN Brian Mitchell
59.	Hume	NSW	Angus Taylor	Lib	63.58	3.31	60.27
60.	Boothby	SA	Andrew Southcott (ret) Nicolle Flint	Lib	57.12	3.27	53.85
61.	Scullin	VIC	Andrew Giles	ALP	64.35	3.21	67.56
62.	Fadden	QLD	Stuart Robert	LNP	64.36	3.15	61.21
63.	Gilmore	NSW	Ann Sudmalis	Lib	53.78	3.09	50.69
64.	Moncrieff	QLD	Steven Ciobo	LNP	67.95	3.00	64.95
2% SWINGS
65.	Mitchell	NSW	Alex Hawke	Lib	71.39	2.98	68.41
66.	Lilley	QLD	Wayne Swan	ALP	51.32	2.91	54.23
67.	Calare	NSW	John Cobb (ret) Andrew Gee	Nat	64.97	2.83	62.14
68.	Mackellar	NSW	Bronwyn Bishop (des) Jason Falinski	Lib	68.84	2.77	66.07
69.	Riverina	NSW	Michael McCormack	Nats	68.99	2.76	66.23
70.	La Trobe	VIC	Jason Wood	Lib	54.01	2.63	51.38
71.	Shortland	NSW	Pat Conroy	ALP	57.40	2.59	59.99
72.	Wright	QLD	Scott Buchholz	LNP	61.84	2.58	59.26
73.	Bendigo	VIC	Lisa Chesters	ALP	51.26	2.53	53.79
74.	Stirling	WA	Michael Keenan	Lib	58.97	2.36	56.61
75.	Ballarat	VIC	Catherine King	ALP	54.89	2.30	57.19
76.	Bruce	VIC	Alan Griffin (ret) Julian Hill	ALP	51.80	2.28	54.08
77.	Fremantle	WA	Melissa Parke (ret) Josh Wilson	ALP	55.40	2.26	57.66
78.	Berowra	NSW	Philip Ruddock (ret) Julian Leeser	Lib	69.05	2.25	66.80
79.	Hughes	NSW	Craig Kelly	Lib	61.81	2.24	59.57
80.	Mallee	VIC	Andrew Broad	Nats	73.66	2.21	71.45
81.	Hindmarsh	SA	Matt Williams	Lib	51.89	2.20	50.31	ALP GAIN Steve Georganas
82.	Moreton	QLD	Graham Perrett	ALP	51.55	2.11	53.66
83.	Gellibrand	VIC	Tim Watts	ALP	66.53	2.02	68.55
84.	Sydney	NSW	Tanya Plibersek	ALP	62.87	2.01	64.88
85.	Richmond	NSW	Justine Elliot	ALP	51.58	2.00	53.58
1% SWINGS
86.	Corio	VIC	Richard Marles	ALP	57.75	1.98	59.73
87.	Isaacs	VIC	Mark Dreyfus	ALP	53.86	1.92	55.78
88.	Cunningham	NSW	Sharon Bird	ALP	61.29	1.90	63.19
89.	North Sydney	NSW	Trent Zimmerman	Lib	65.71	1.89	63.82
90.	Robertson	NSW	Lucy Wicks	Lib	53.09	1.88	51.21
91.	Lyne	NSW	David Gillespie	Nat	63.52	1.77	61.75
92.	Lalor	VIC	Joanne Ryan	ALP	62.16	1.76	63.92
93.	Bowman	QLD	Andrew Laming	LNP	58.86	1.76	57.10
94.	Tangney	WA	Dennis Jensen (des) Ben Morton	Lib	63.02	1.73	61.29
95.	Werriwa	NSW	Laurie Ferguson (ret) Anne Stanley	ALP	56.53	1.66	58.19
96.	Leichhardt	QLD	Warren Entsch	LNP	55.68	1.57	54.11
97.	Moore	WA	Ian Goodenough	Lib	62.44	1.50	60.94
98.	Groom	QLD	Ian Macfarlane (ret) John McVeigh	LNP	66.47	1.48	64.99
99.	Jagajaga	VIC	Jenny Macklin	ALP	53.13	1.48	54.61
100.	Fenner	ACT	Andrew Leigh	ALP	62.49	1.44	63.93
101.	McPherson	QLD	Karen Andrews	LNP	63.00	1.41	61.59
102.	Forrest	WA	Nola Marino	Lib	63.81	1.37	62.44
103.	Banks	NSW	David Coleman	Lib	52.80	1.26	51.54
104.	Farrer	NSW	Sussan Ley	Lib	71.71	1.11	70.60
105.	Casey	VIC	Tony Smith	Lib	57.17	1.06	56.11
106.	Wannon	VIC	Dan Tehan	Lib	60.07	1.04	59.03
107.	Perth	WA	Alannah MacTiernan (ret) Tim Hammond	ALP	52.18	1.01	53.19
108.	Wentworth	NSW	Malcolm Turnbull	Lib	68.92	1.01	67.91
0-1% SWINGS
109.	Fairfax	QLD	Ted O’Brien	LNP	61.68	0.83	60.85
110.	Maribyrnong	VIC	Bill Shorten	ALP	61.39	0.77	62.16
111.	Corangamite	VIC	Sarah Henderson	Lib	53.94	0.76	53.18
112.	Adelaide	SA	Kate Ellis	ALP	53.95	0.66	54.61
113.	Hinkler	QLD	Keith Pitt	LNP	59.04	0.58	58.46
114.	O’Connor	WA	Rick Wilson	Lib	65.42	0.50	64.92
115.	Bonner	QLD	Ross Vasta	LNP	53.69	0.48	53.21
116.	Page	NSW	Kevin Hogan	Nats	53.10	0.35	52.75
117.	Fisher	QLD	Mal Brough (ret) Andrew Wallace	LNP	59.75	0.30	59.45
118.	Hotham	VIC	Clare O’Neil	ALP	57.27	0.21	57.48
119.	Capricornia	QLD	Michelle Landry	LNP	50.77	0.15	50.62
120.	Canberra	ACT	Gai Brodtmann	ALP	57.51	0.03	57.54

LEGEND:
Lib = Liberal Party
Nats = The Nationals
LNP = Liberal National Party of Queensland
CLP = Country Liberal Party – Northern Territory
des = deselected, lost preselection
ret = retired