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LNP Lead Slips To 12 Votes In Herbert; Current Preference Flows Suggest ALP Win By 55 Votes (…Or Perhaps Not)

10.40pm – The Liberal National Party’s lead in the Queensland seat of Herbert narrowed to 12 votes today, with 1,089 votes still to count.

Herbert is the last seat to be decided in the election. A win for the LNP would give the Turnbull government 77 seats and a majority of three in the House. A win for the ALP would give it 69 seats against 76 for the government, a majority of just one. There are 5 crossbenchers.

Herbert is held by Ewen Jones, who was first elected in 2010.

The remaining votes to be counted in Hebert include 200 absents, 446 provisionals, 399 declaration pre-poll and 44 postals. Current figures show the LNP winning 56.57% of postals and 53.55% of declarations pre-poll, whilst the ALP is winning 51.55% of absents and 60.78% of provisionals. If these proportions hold for the remaining 1,089 votes, and assuming no votes are declared informal and no further votes are added to the count, the ALP will win the seat by 55 votes.

  • Absents – ALP wins 51.55% of 200 votes = 103 ALP, 97 LNP
  • Provisional – ALP wins 60.78% of 446 votes = 271 ALP, 175 LNP
  • Declaration Pre-Poll – LNP wins 53.55% of 399 votes = 185 ALP, 214 LNP
  • Postals – LNP wins 56.57% of 44 votes = 19 ALP, 25 LNP
  • TOTALS – ALP 44,062 + 578 = 44,640; LNP 44,074 + 511 = 44,585

July 16 update on the perils of predictions: The AEC website this morning shows the number of provisional votes still to be counted as 444, not 446. Bear in mind, also, that 75.5% of provisional votes have been rejected as ineligible so far. If we apply this to my calculations shown above, the ALP would win 66 and the LNP 43. The LNP would then win the seat by 85 votes, 43,942 to 43,857. And don’t forget there’s also a rejection rate for absents, pre-poll declarations and postals… there are many permutations and combinations for how many votes will be entered into the count.

House of Representatives – Undecided Seats
No. Seat Margin
(Thu 14/7)
(Fri 15/7)
Incumbent Party 2PP % Main Opponent 2PP % Swing %
Ewen Jones (LNP)
Cathy O’Toole (ALP)
6.16 to ALP


House of Representatives – Decided Seats
Party Seats Total
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY NSW (24): Barton, Blaxland, Chifley, Cunningham, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Fowler, Grayndler, Greenway, Hunter, Kingsford Smith, Lindsay, Macarthur, Macquarie, McMahon, Newcastle, Parramatta, Paterson, Richmond, Shortland, Sydney, Watson, Werriwa, Whitlam.
VIC (18): Ballarat, Batman, Bendigo, Bruce, Calwell, Corio, Gellibrand, Gorton, Holt, Hotham, Isaacs, Jagajaga, Lalor, Maribyrnong, McEwen, Melbourne Ports, Scullin, Wills.
QLD (7): Blair, Griffith, Lilley, Longman, Moreton, Oxley, Rankin.
WA (5): Brand, Burt, Cowan, Fremantle. Perth.
SA (6): Adelaide, Hindmarsh, Kingston, Makin, Port Adelaide, Wakefield.
TAS (4): Bass, Braddon, Franklin, Lyons.
ACT (2): Canberra, Fenner.
NT (2): Lingiari, Solomon.
The COALITION consists of the Liberal Party, Liberal National Party (Qld) and The Nationals. They are shown separately below. The Coalition has 76 seats.
LIBERAL NSW (16): Banks, Bennelong, Berowra, Bradfield, Cook, Farrer, Gilmore, Hughes, Hume, Mackellar, Mitchell, North Sydney, Reid, Robertson, Warringah, Wentworth.
VIC (14): Aston, Casey, Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin, Dunkley, Flinders, Goldstein, Higgins, Kooyong, La Trobe, McMillan, Menzies, Wannon.
WA (11): Canning, Curtin, Durack, Forrest, Hasluck, Moore, O’Connor, Pearce, Stirling, Swan, Tangney.
SA (4): Barker, Boothby, Grey, Sturt.
LIBERAL NATIONAL (LNP-QLD) QLD (21): Bonner, Bowman, Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Fadden, Fairfax, Fisher, Flynn, Forde, Groom, Hinkler, Leichhardt, Maranoa, McPherson, Moncrieff, Petrie, Ryan, Wide Bay, Wright
NATIONALS NSW (7): Calare, Cowper, Lyne, New England, Page, Parkes, Riverina.
VIC (3): Gippsland, Mallee, Murray.
GREENS VIC (1): Melbourne.
QLD (1): Kennedy.
TAS (1): Denison.
IN DOUBT QLD (1): Herbert.

Source: Australian Electoral Commission

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Malcolm Farnsworth
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