Government And ALP Agree On Senate Terms; First Elected To Get 6 Years

It was reported today that the government and the ALP have agreed on the allocation of terms for the new Senate.

The reports say the Coalition and the ALP have agreed that the first six elected in each state will get 6-year terms, whilst the last six will get three-year terms. This is the procedure that has been adopted following previous double dissolutions.

The ALP and the Coalition easily have the numbers to impose this decision on the Senate. Its effect is to give six-year terms to a majority of senators from the Coalition (16 of 28), ALP (13 of 24) and Nick Xenophon Team (2 of 3).

Pauline Hanson and Jacqui Lambie will also get six-year terms. Both polled a Senate quota in their own right.

Only three of the Greens’ nine senators will receive six-year terms. Each of them – Richard Di Natale (Vic), Scott Ludlam (WA) and Peter Whish-Wilson (Tas) – represents a state where the Greens won two places. The other six senators, one in each state, will all face the electorate before June 2019. This means it is all but impossible for the Greens to increase their overall numbers at the next election. Instead, they will face the danger of losing incumbents.

Furthermore, seven of the eleven crossbench senators from minor and micro parties will receive three-year terms. They include David Leyonhjelm (Liberal Democrats), Bob Day (Family First), Derryn Hinch (Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party) and Skye Kakoschke-Moore (Nick Xenophon Team). The three One Nation senators aside from Pauline Hanson will also get the shorter term: Brian Burston, Malcolm Roberts and Rodney Culleton.

As the numbers in the table below show, the crossbenchers will struggle to retain their seats at the next election. Not only will the quota double to 14.3%, but each senator will face competition from the major and micro parties and, in some cases, one another. With fewer senators up for election, the Coalition and ALP will have a headstart on the crossbenchers. For example, the ALP will be defending just one seat in NSW and South Australia and only two in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. It will be favoured to pick up at least one seat. The Coalition will be defending two in each state and could reasonably expect to win a third in some states.

There are four territory senators who serve terms concurrent with the House of Representatives. They are unaffected by this decision. The Coalition and the ALP hold two positions each.

Ultimately, it is up to the Senate to decide on the allocation of long and short terms, as provided for in Section 13 of the Constitution. However, an alternative to the first-six-last-six method is contained in Section 282 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act. It provides for a recount of Senate votes as if it had been a standard half-Senate election for six places, rather than a double dissolution for twelve.

Reports say that the recount method would give Derryn Hinch a 6-year term in Victoria, at the expense of Liberal Scott Ryan, whilst the Greens’ Lee Rhiannon would have replaced the ALP’s Deb O’Neill in NSW. The order of senators in Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania would be unaffected.

The next half-Senate election must be held between July 2018 and June 2019. Long-term senators will face the electorate between July 2021 and June 2022.

More Detailed Information On Senate Results

• New South Wales
• Victoria
• Queensland
• Western Australia
• South Australia
• Tasmania
• Australian Capital Territory
• Northern Territory